endymion Posts:385 Followers:17
On 03/01/2013 10:11 AM in Soccer

Soccer Over 3.5 (03/01 - 03/03)

It's March again, the weather's getting better in Northern Europe and the soccer leagues are resuming so I'm back to my "over 3.5" plays. Remember: the season is long and the goal, just like with the small dogs ML bets in basketball, is to hit 45-50% for 10-15% ROI. Here are the plays for this weekend:

Fri (03/01):

NET
Vitesse - Utrecht +142

NET 2
Helmond Sport - Excelsior +135

Sat (03/02):

GER
Borrusia D - Hannover 96 +125

SCO 2
Arbroath - Ayr +130
Stenhousemuir - Brechin City +160

SCO 3
Annan - Berwick +115
Elgin - Sterling +115

Sun (03/03):

ENG
Tottenham - Arsenal +160

  • 03/01/2013 10:12 AM

    It should be obvious from the title but all picks are "over 3.5 goals total"

finance Posts:8234 Followers:220
03/01/2013 10:37 AM

Wow thanks and good luck.....have you done this in past years and how has it worked out? I know just a little about soccer but seems to me that most of the totals are 2.5 which is obviously why you get the big + at 3.5...do most books offer the 3.5's?

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endymion Posts:385 Followers:17
03/01/2013 10:46 AM

Yes, I did this in October and November and it was pretty good, you can find the old threads in my Forum Activity. There's the occasional side bet but most are overs.

Outside the forum, I've been doing it for the past 2 years. The most popular totals play is indeed over 2.5 and that's what most people bet so there isn't much value in it. Over 3.5 is less popular and sometimes you can get inflated lines. All good books offer over 3.5 and all other options too - over 1.5, over 4.5, over 5.5, etc. I play over 3.5, very rarely over 4.5, mostly in Northern European leagues (Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Scotland, Denmark). Sometimes also Germany and Switzerland. I don't do it from December to February because the weather is often bad and scoring drops.

  • 03/01/2013 10:49 AM

    Here are the old threads:

    I started posting in this one:
    http://www.bangthebook.com/picks/t/57519?s=september%20soccer&tpage=2#topic-content

    Then had 2 more in Octover and November:
    http://www.bangthebook.com/picks/t/62753
    http://www.bangthebook.com/picks/t/68157

finance Posts:8234 Followers:220
03/01/2013 10:50 AM

Awesome thanks man! Hope it kicks ass!!

  • All Time Record: 1883-1841-51
  • Last 7 Days Record: 1-1-1
  • Last 30 Days Record: 19-19-3
endymion Posts:385 Followers:17
03/03/2013 04:36 PM

Results:

NET
Vitesse - Utrecht
2:0

NET 2
Helmond Sport - Excelsior
1:1

Sat (03/02):

GER
Borrusia D - Hannover 96
3:1

SCO 2
Arbroath - Ayr
1:4

Stenhousemuir - Brechin City
3:3

SCO 3
Annan - Berwick
2:2

Elgin - Sterling
1:2

Sun (03/03):

ENG
Tottenham - Arsenal
2:1

Total: 4:4 (+1.30)