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It's March again, the weather's getting better in Northern Europe and the soccer leagues are resuming so I'm back to my "over 3.5" plays. Remember: the season is long and the goal, just like with the small dogs ML bets in basketball, is to hit 45-50% for 10-15% ROI. Here are the plays for this weekend:
Wow thanks and good luck.....have you done this in past years and how has it worked out? I know just a little about soccer but seems to me that most of the totals are 2.5 which is obviously why you get the big + at 3.5...do most books offer the 3.5's?
Yes, I did this in October and November and it was pretty good, you can find the old threads in my Forum Activity. There's the occasional side bet but most are overs.
Outside the forum, I've been doing it for the past 2 years. The most popular totals play is indeed over 2.5 and that's what most people bet so there isn't much value in it. Over 3.5 is less popular and sometimes you can get inflated lines. All good books offer over 3.5 and all other options too - over 1.5, over 4.5, over 5.5, etc. I play over 3.5, very rarely over 4.5, mostly in Northern European leagues (Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Scotland, Denmark). Sometimes also Germany and Switzerland. I don't do it from December to February because the weather is often bad and scoring drops.