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Tuesday night's free play will be to ride the Tigers of Memphis as they look for their 19th straight win at the expense of the Xavier Musketeers.
Second straight February these non-conference teams will face one another, as Xavier dropped a 72-68 decision last season, but did cover as the +5 point road dog in Memphis.
Deja Vu tonight, as Xavier is once again a +5 point dog, but the problem is, this year's Musketeers team is just 15-11 and are fresh off blowing a 13-point home halftime lead against VCU over the weekend in a 4-point loss.
I have a feeling the Musketeers will be a little deflated after that setback, and the fact the Tigers have covered in 4 of their last 5 wins tells me they are peaking right now.
Memphis has not lost a true road game this year, going 7-0 straight up going 5-2 against the spread in those 7 wins.
Playing the Tigers to extend their winning streak with the comfortable road win.
For Tuesday, freebie on Tennessee plus the points at home versus Florida.
I am guessing the Vols are getting this many points partly because they are fresh off Saturday's four overtime road win at Texas A&M, but I think this is just too many points for the Gators to lay on the road tonight.
Florida has dropped their last pair against the spread, and is on a 2-5 overall spread slide their last seven games.
Tennessee has been just the opposite, as their current five game win and cover streak has the Vols Big Dance dreaming, especially if they can extend that streak to six in a row tonight.
Don't laugh, with series wins in the last pair and six of the last ten straight up, have to give the points and the Volunteers a real shot to stay close, especially in Knoxville where they have won five of their seven SEC games this year.
Take Tennessee to put up a fight with the points tonight as your Tuesday freebie.
The Illinois-Chicago Flames are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record while the Wright State Raiders are 1-6 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. The Flames are also 11-3 ATS against teams holding their opponents to 42% or less from the field this season.
The Flames already beat Wright State back on January 26th with a 55-49 final score. That game was played on the Raiders home court so it seems unlikely that Wright State will be able to reverse their fortunes playing round two of this matchup on the road.
The Raiders offense has struggled in road games averaging 60.1 points per game with 31 total rebounds and only 7 of those coming on the offensive glass. Illinois-Chicago plays well at home and they have already proven they know how to beat Wright State. Getting a free point here is a gift from the oddsmakers.
Down day yesterday, we blank the card and we look to bounce-back today and this week. Let's stick to our selectivity, and attempt to stay within 3 plays per day and keep progressing. We come off back to back winning weeks, a winning January at +$2600 and by the end of this week, we will try to make it 3 straight winning weeks. Let's roll.
4-Unit Play. #519. Take Towson +7 over George Mason (Tuesday @ 7pm est).
5-Unit Play. #532. Take Valparaiso -13.5 over Youngstown State (Tuesday @ 8pm est).
4-Unit Play. #527. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee +14.5 over Wisconsin Green Bay (Tuesday @ 8pm est).
Did you know that Towson was 1-31 last year? Pat Skerry's team was miserable last year but much has changed this year as this team is 16-13 and is in the running for the most improved team in the nation and he has been mentioned for coach of the year as year solidifies that cause. He took over Pat Kennedy's team that was 4-26 to put things in perspective so this is the most successful this team has been in quite some time. The ex-Pitt assistant has done well with this team and now has them going into George Mason looking for the upset. Towson is 11-5 in conference play and this team lost to Georgetown by 6 on the road, Temple by 9 on the road and lost to George Mason by 10 at home and now seeks revenge. I would have played this selection at 5.5 and to see it go to 7 was a nice option. Towson is a defensive type of team so to see a total in the low 130's is a positive element as well and with 3 juniors leading the way its a positive element. George Mason has a revenge game against Delaware on docket (which we will probably be on) and Skerry has a way of motivating his players as well. When this team lost to Georgia State at home they did go on the road to beat State Outright so don't be surprised to see Towson be motivated to do well here against Paul Hewitt's squad. Valparaiso has just 3 losses this year and one of those losses was to Youngstown State by 12 on the road. It was a game that this team who is ranked in the top 70 in most power rankings should have never lost and as they look to get revenge today (just like they did against Loyola Chicago winning by 9 on the road), look for them to bounce-back at home. This is a team that beat a better Eastern Kentucky team compared to Youngstown State by 22 at home, beat Illinois Chicago by 25, Cleveland State by 24 and even beat Murray State and Detroit on the road which is difficult to to do. Look for Bryce Drew's senior laden team to lay the wood down and get some revenge today. Wisconsin Milwaukee is by no means a fantastic team. But what we look for is an opportunity for a team to sneak inside the cover when the other team is not as motivated enough. With Wisconsin Milwaukee losing by 20 to this team at home, winning all 3 of their conference games over their last 5 contests going 3-2 of late, this being the last game of the season for them, with revenge, I do like them motivated here on the road against a Green Bay team that has Valpo on the docket in their next game which will be a big showdown for them. Its hard to get up for a team who you beat by 20 points away from home and I like Milwaukee to hang tough here on the road this evening.
Air Force (-4) over Wyoming
AIR FORCE (15-10) -4 over Wyoming (18-9) Prediction: Air Force by 11-12
Comments: The 2012-13 edition of the Air Force Academy basketball team is one of the best it has ever put on the floor and has been show-casing its talent of late with home wins over UNLV (21-7), 71-56, and San Diego State (20-7), 70-67, and by taking powerful Colorado State (21-6) to the money before losing, 89-86. The Falcons only other home loss this season was to Wichita State (22-5), 72-69. Air Force starts a lineup of four seniors and a sophomore and is led by senior guard Michael Lyons who has for the past two seasons been every one’s nemesis. This year he is averaging 18.8 points per game and in that 3-point loss to Colorado State scored 45 points. The Falcons are simply a relentless team that that comes to play every night, is well coached, disciplined and finds ways to win. The first time these teams met this season, a month ago in Laramie, Air Force won, 57-48, as a 7 ½-point underdog. Despite the fact Wyoming is in better shape physically that it was then, my figures say the Falcons should dominate.
WiscGreen Bay (-14) over WiscMilwaukee
WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (15-13) -14 over Wisconsin-Milwaukee (8-122) Prediction: Wisconsin-Green Bay by 19-20
Comments: The first time these teams played this season—four weeks ago in Milwaukee—Green Bay won by 20 points, 74-54, as a 7-point favorite and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that won happen again. Wisconsin-Milwaukee, which is 1-15 on the road, has to be happy about one thing—this is its last game of the regular season. As basketball teams go, Green Bay and Milwaukee operate on different planes and my figures say the former should again win in blowout fashion.
Alabama (-11½) over Auburn
7:00 PM -- Coleman Coliseum
ALABAMA (18-9) -11 ½ over Auburn (9-18) Prediction: Alabama by 18-19 Played at Coleman Coliseum (15,383) in Tuscaloosa, Alabama RPI Ranking: Auburn 218 of 347 teams, Alabama 62nd of 347. Strength of Schedule Ranking: Auburn 103rd of 347, Alabama 84th of 347. Home/Road Record: Alabama 12-3 at home, Auburn 2-10 on road. Enrollment: Auburn (20,446), Alabama (28,026) Starting Time: 7:05 TV: ESPNU Comments: This is one of the big revenge games of the year in the SEC. Not only are these two schools heated—and I mean heated—rivals but Auburn, which is 1-11 in its last 12 games, embarrassed Alabama, 49-37, when these teams met three weeks ago at Auburn. Yes, the only win in those last 12 games was over Alabama. There is no question the Crimson Tide are by far the best team in this game and are 10-3 in their last 13 games. Take it to the bank Alabama will come out firing the big guns in this one and wipe away the memory of their terrible performance at Auburn, a game in which they hit but 28.6% from the floor, including 10.5% from 3-point range.
Towson (+7) over George Mason
7:00 PM -- Patriot Center
Towson (16-13) +7 over GEORGE MASON (17-11) Prediction: Towson by 3-4
Comments: Towson is the number one surprise of the 2012-13 season, having gone 1-31 last season, and they can really put the icing on the cake with a win tonight, and a victory at home against Hofstra. A win in both those games would close out Towson 18-13 and the team would go into the NCAA record book with the greatest one season turn-around in history. Since Towson is prohibited from post-season play because of past academic problems, I do believe it will give it everything it has to do just that. The first time these teams met this season—January 23 at Towson—George Mason won, 77-67, as a 1 ½-point favorite but now catch an incentive-driven Tigers team that is playing its best basketball right now, is 6-1 in its last seven games, including in that span road wins at Hofstra, 57-50, Georgia State, 90-82, and Old Dominion, 68-66. My figures, plus the hidden incentive factors, should put Towson in the winner’s circle again.