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Northwestern vs. Purdue, 02/24/2013 18:00
Point Spread: +6½/-107 Northwestern
Purdue is 4-11 ATS against teams holding opponents to 42% or less shooting from the field. The Northwestern Wildcats may not be having a great season, but it is not from a lack of defense. They have held opponents to 61.9 points per game on the road and an average of 41.9% shooting overall this season.
Always play on a team that has failed to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games like Northwestern in a matchup involving two teams that are winning 40-49% of their games on the season. This system is 54-23 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Northwestern beat Purdue by 5 points earlier this season. They are playing on three days of rest which is just the right number to stay sharp, but not be rundown. The Boilermakers have averaged 17 turnovers in their last two games compared to 10.5 from Northwestern. This should be a close game between two evenly matched teams and the value play is taking the points.