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Dartmouth vs. Yale, 02/22/2013 19:00
Point Spread: +10½/-105 Dartmouth
These teams played on February 2nd and Dartmouth handed Yale a 9 point loss. The change in venue is not enough to swing the end result enough for Yale to cover such a large number. You should always play against home favorites of 10 or more points like Yale when they are off a home win against a conference rival, in February games. This trend is 194-122 (61.4%) over the last 5 seasons.
This game also falls into a situation to play on a road team like Dartmouth shooting 40% or less and playing against a team allowing 42.5-45% shooting after 15+ games in the season. This situation is 122-75 (61.9%) over the last 5 seasons.
Dartmouth does a good job of controlling turnovers, averaging 14 or less per game on the road. They do an average job on the boards averaging 9 offensive rebounds per game on the road while Yale averages 9 offensive boards at home. Yale may get their revenge in this game, but it should not be by the 11+ points it will take to cover this large spread.