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South Alabama vs. Middle Tennessee, 02/21/2013 20:00
Point Spread: +15½/-123 South Alabama
There are a lot of reasons to take South Alabama in this game and a whole lot more on why not to take Middle Tennessee State. You always want to play on road underdogs of 10 or more points when they are revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. Over the last five years this situation has come up quite a bit and delivered a 725-538 ATS record for 57.4% winners.
You also want to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more when they are coming off two or more consecutive wins and facing an opponent with nine or more consecutive wins. With two hot teams and a road dog getting 10 points or more you are 65-31 ATS over the last five seasons by taking that road dog.
South Alabama is a good team and they are coming off a 24 point blowout win over Louisiana Lafayette. You should play against favorites of 10-19.5 points like Middle Tennessee State when they are off two straight wins against conference rivals and facing an opponent coming off a 20 point or more home blowout. This system is 54-21 since 1997.