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North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech, 02/19/2013 21:00
Point Spread: +3½/-110 Georgia Tech
This game falls into a system to play against an up-temp team that averages 62 or more shots per game after making 13 or more 3 point shows in their last game. This trend is 236-151 (61%) since 1997. This trend is extremely relevant in this matchup because North Carolina is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 39% or less over the last two seasons. Going back beyond two seasons, Roy Williams is 13-26 ATS versus teams allowing less than 39% shooting after the 15 game mark in the season so I expect to see the Tar Heels taking a lot of bad shots in this game.
This North Carolina team has been overrated and inconsistent most of the season. Roy Williams is 50-68 ATS off a win against a conference rival as the coach of North Carolina. The Tar Heels have struggled on the road with a 5-7 record straight up and 5-6 ATS. The Yellow Jackets are solid at home with a 10-4 record and should be able to play the Tar Heels in a very close game.