marksmoneymakers Posts:12016 Followers:137
On 02/16/2013 08:36 AM in NCAA Basketball

Some Saturday ncaa hoops helpful information

DAVID BANKS

WEEKEND CBB LEAN SHEET

Villanova at Connecticut, Saturday, Feb. 16, 12:00 ET
These are two teams heading in opposite directions. Connecticut has won five of its last six games and is flying high after upsetting Syracuse 66-58 here at home on Wednesday. The Huskies are now third in the Big East in effective field goal percentage and second in three-point shooting at 37.0 percent, which is an area they can exploit as Villanova ranks 272nd nationally and 14th in the Big East in three-point defense. The Wildcats received some national notoriety last month with back-to-back upsets of Louisville and Syracuse, but they have since come back to earth going 2-3 in their last five games with the two wins coming vs. conference lightweights South Florida and DePaul. Villanova is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 conference games following a straight up loss.
LEAN: UCONN

Pittsburgh at Marquette, Saturday, Feb. 16, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh just might be the most underrated team in the country right now, as with practically no fanfare whatsoever the Panthers are up to fourth overall in the country on the Pomeroy Ratings! Pittsburgh ranks ninth in offensive efficiency and ninth in defensive efficiency, making the Panthers one of only two teams to rank in the top 10 in both categories with the other being Florida. The Panthers have won seven of their last eight games with the only loss being by three points at Louisville. They are also seeking revenge for an earlier 74-67 overtime loss at home to Marquette. The Golden Eagles are 8-3 in conference, but they may be badly outscored from behind the three-point arc as they are 14th in the conference in three-point shooting and 12th in three-point defense. Pittsburgh is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games when playing its second straight road game.
LEAN: PITT

Virginia Tech at NC State, Saturday, Feb. 16, 2:00 ET
NC State has been a disappointment after being picked by many to win the ACC this season, but at least the Wolfpack have been exciting! They rank eighth in the country in offensive efficiency, ninth in three-point shooting and 21st in two-point shooting while averaging 78.0 points overall and 82.4 points here at home, and they are the only ACC team to reach 70 points vs. the Miami Hurricanes in a 79-78 loss. However, they rank 137th in defensive efficiency, which has resulted in a lot of shootouts. Now, Virginia Tech is on a seven-game losing streak but NC State is capable of scoring 90 points in Raleigh vs. a Hokies' defense ranked 238th in efficiency, so Virginia Tech may not need to do much to help put this 'over'. The 'over' is 19-7 in the last 26 NC State home games.
LEAN: OVER

UCLA at Stanford, Saturday, Feb. 16, 4:00 ET
UCLA has not lived up to preseason expectations mainly due to two players leaving the team, but the Bruins still rank a good 31st in offensive efficiency while usually playing a four-guard set along with big man Travis Wear. The highly touted freshman class has done its part with Shabazz Muhammad, Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson combining for 42.6 points per game, but the defense has taken a hit with the smaller lineup ranking 117th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Stanford is averaging 70.3 points per game here at home this season as it ranks third in the Pac-12 in offensive efficiency, and it leads the conference in three-point shooting at a blistering 45.1 percent during league play. The 'over' is 10-3 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
LEAN: OVER

Temple at Massachusetts, Saturday, Feb. 16, 6:00 ET
At 16-7, Temple is fighting for an NCAA Tournament berth and a big road win here would help the Owls' cause. Temple ranks 41st in the country in offensive efficiency and it has been excellent at ball protection, ranking 11th in all the land in offensive turnover percentage. That means that the Owls should be able to run whichever sets it chooses here as Massachusetts ranks only 208th in defensive turnover percentage. The Minutemen are not a great shooting team either, ranking 149th in effective field goal percentage. This is also a letdown spot for Massachusetts, who will be coming off of a battle with conference kingpin VCU on Thursday. Temple is 59-33-2 ATS in its last 94 conference games.
LEAN: TEMPLE

marksmoneymakers Posts:12016 Followers:137
02/16/2013 08:37 AM

JACK JONES

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska +10
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +9
15* SEC GAME OF THE DAY on Arkansas +1
15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE DAY on Oregon -3
15* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE DAY on Missouri State +5

marksmoneymakers Posts:12016 Followers:137
02/16/2013 08:38 AM

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

02/16/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 2938-998 (.746)
ATS: 1330-1372 (.492)
ATS Vary Units: 3918-4236 (.481)
Over/Under: 364-347 (.512)
Over/Under Vary Units: 394-409 (.491)

America East Conference
ALBANY 58, Hartford 56
Maine 68, BINGHAMTON 58

Atlantic 10 Conference
Butler 75, FORDHAM 63
DAYTON 67, Xavier 65
La Salle 70, Saint Joseph's 65
MASSACHUSETTS 78, Temple 72
Rhode Island vs. DUQUESNE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
RICHMOND 70, St. Bonaventure 67
SAINT LOUIS 70, Charlotte 58
VCU 74, George Washington 60

Atlantic Coast Conference
Duke 75, MARYLAND 67
FLORIDA STATE 68, Boston College 61
NC STATE 83, Virginia Tech 65
NORTH CAROLINA 67, Virginia 63
WAKE FOREST 64, Georgia Tech 61

Atlantic Sun Conference
Florida Gulf Coast 81, LIPSCOMB 71
Mercer 67, EAST TENNESSEE STATE 59
NORTHERN KENTUCKY 67, Stetson 66
USC UPSTATE 75, Kennesaw State 61

Big 12 Conference
IOWA STATE 77, Tcu 55
KANSAS 73, Texas 58
KANSAS STATE 68, Baylor 65
OKLAHOMA STATE 71, Oklahoma 63
WEST VIRGINIA 73, Texas Tech 56

Big East Conference
CONNECTICUT 70, Villanova 63
Pittsburgh 63, MARQUETTE 61
PROVIDENCE 70, Notre Dame 67
Rutgers vs. DePAUL: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Syracuse 69, SETON HALL 57

Big Sky Conference
EASTERN WASHINGTON 71, Southern Utah 70
Montana 69, IDAHO STATE 57
NORTH DAKOTA 74, Northern Arizona 65
NORTHERN COLORADO 73, Sacramento State 66
WEBER STATE 85, Montana State 62

Big South Conference
CAMPBELL 79, Vmi 78
COASTAL CAROLINA 64, Gardner-Webb 58
High Point 73, LIBERTY 69
Radford 78, LONGWOOD 67
UNC ASHEVILLE 80, Charleston Southern 71
Winthrop 61, PRESBYTERIAN 59

Big Ten Conference
INDIANA 80, Purdue 59
Michigan State 66, NEBRASKA 51

Big West Conference
CAL POLY 69, UC Santa Barbara 59
LONG BEACH STATE 78, UC Riverside 58
PACIFIC 74, Hawai'i 70
UC DAVIS 79, Cal State Northridge 76
UC IRVINE 78, Cal State Fullerton 75

Colonial Athletic Association
DELAWARE 69, James Madison 62
GEORGE MASON 70, Georgia State 62
Northeastern 71, UNC WILMINGTON 66
OLD DOMINION 70, William & Mary 68
Towson 65, HOFSTRA 60

Conference USA
EAST CAROLINA 74, Southern Miss 73
Memphis 81, MARSHALL 64
TULANE 62, Smu 58
TULSA 77, Houston 69
UAB 74, Rice 62
Ucf vs. UTEP: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Great West Conference
NEW JERSEY TECH 71, Utah Valley 67
TEXAS-PAN AMERICAN 70, Houston Baptist 66

Horizon League
LOYOLA (CHICAGO) 60, Uic 58
VALPARAISO 77, Detroit 69

Ivy League
Cornell 64, BROWN 62
HARVARD 64, Princeton 60
Penn 61, DARTMOUTH 60
YALE 65, Columbia 60

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Canisius 69, SAINT PETER'S 61
Loyola (Md.) 67, SIENA 58

Mid-American Conference
AKRON 69, Bowling Green 55
BALL STATE 55, Eastern Michigan 54
Buffalo vs. MIAMI (OHIO): TOO CLOSE TO CALL
OHIO 76, Kent State 66
Toledo 71, CENTRAL MICHIGAN 66
WESTERN MICHIGAN 66, Northern Illinois 51

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
DELAWARE STATE 68, Coppin State 59
FLORIDA A&M 57, Howard 54
Morgan State 67, UMES 58
North Carolina A&T 65, SOUTH CAROLINA STATE 56
North Carolina Central 55, SAVANNAH STATE 52

Missouri Valley Conference
Creighton 74, EVANSVILLE 68
Indiana State 66, BRADLEY 63
Missouri State 61, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 60
Northern Iowa 69, DRAKE 63

Mountain West Conference
Colorado State 68, AIR FORCE 63
NEW MEXICO 70, Boise State 59
UNLV 65, San Diego State 64
WYOMING 58, Fresno State 48

Northeast Conference
LONG ISLAND 90, Fairleigh Dickinson 67
MOUNT ST. MARY'S 81, Central Connecticut State 72
QUINNIPIAC 76, Saint Francis (Pa.) 62
Robert Morris 77, SACRED HEART 71
St. Francis (N.Y.) 75, MONMOUTH 70
WAGNER 77, Bryant 72

Ohio Valley Conference
EASTERN KENTUCKY 72, Jacksonville State 62
MOREHEAD STATE 72, Tennessee Tech 65
Murray State 69, EASTERN ILLINOIS 57
SIUE 73, Austin Peay 69
Southeast Missouri 77, UT MARTIN 73

Pacific-10 Conference
COLORADO 72, Arizona State 59
Oregon 67, WASHINGTON STATE 61
STANFORD 72, Ucla 67
WASHINGTON 75, Oregon State 70

Patriot League
Army 68, NAVY 59
Bucknell 65, LAFAYETTE 61
Lehigh 73, COLGATE 59

Southeastern Conference
ALABAMA 64, South Carolina 47
ARKANSAS 76, Missouri 75
Florida 73, AUBURN 55
Kentucky 67, TENNESSEE 61
LSU 72, Mississippi State 58
OLE MISS 69, Georgia 60
VANDERBILT 56, Texas A&M 53

Southern Conference
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 70, Georgia Southern 57
Davidson 80, THE CITADEL 58
ELON 72, Western Carolina 66
Samford 65, FURMAN 62
WOFFORD 64, Chattanooga 59

Southland Conference
McNeese State 68, LAMAR 67
Northwestern State 85, NICHOLLS STATE 73
ORAL ROBERTS 75, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 57
Sam Houston State 71, CENTRAL ARKANSAS 70
Stephen F. Austin 60, SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 52

Southwestern Athletic Conference
ALCORN STATE 68, Alabama A&M 58
JACKSON STATE 71, Grambling State 51
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 66, Mississippi Valley State 62
SOUTHERN 70, Alabama State 54
TEXAS SOUTHERN 69, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 59

Summit League
NORTH DAKOTA STATE 76, Iupui 55
Oakland 81, KANSAS CITY 66
SOUTH DAKOTA 74, Fort Wayne 71
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 63, Western Illinois 55

Sun Belt Conference
Arkansas State 72, ULM 59
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 70, Western Kentucky 65
Middle Tennessee 69, UALR 59
TROY 71, North Texas 64
UL LAFAYETTE 74, Florida Atlantic 70

West Coast Conference
BYU 81, Portland 62
Gonzaga 80, SAN FRANCISCO 67
Saint Mary's 78, LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 61
SANTA CLARA 74, Pepperdine 61

Western Athletic Conference
Denver 65, SAN JOSE STATE 50
Louisiana Tech 72, IDAHO 65
TEXAS STATE 77, UT San Antonio 72
UT Arlington 68, SEATTLE 63
UTAH STATE 65, New Mexico State 63

marksmoneymakers Posts:12016 Followers:137
02/16/2013 08:38 AM

NCAA Basketball Picks
Boston College at Florida State

The Seminoles look to take advantage of a Boston College team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. Florida State is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Seminoles favored by 7. Here are all of today's early games.

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 16
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Bowling Green at Akron (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 54.932; Akron 65.470
Dunkel Line: Akron by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 12
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+12)

Game 503-504: William & Mary at Old Dominion (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 49.037; Old Dominion 49.897
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 1
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+5)

Game 505-506: Notre Dame at Providence (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 63.903; Providence 67.628
Dunkel Line: Providence by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Providence by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-1 1/2)

Game 507-508: Villanova at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 64.415; Connecticut 67.403
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3; 130
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 5; 133
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+5); Under

Game 509-510: Boston College at Florida State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 58.379; Florida State 65.211
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 7
Vegas Line: Florida State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-5)

Game 511-512: Virginia at North Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 70.167; North Carolina 70.654
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+4 1/2)

Game 513-514: Xavier at Dayton (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 59.967; Dayton 65.733
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 6; 129
Vegas Line: Dayton by 4 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-4 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Pittsburgh at Marquette (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 73.129; Marquette 67.022
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 128
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 124
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2); Over

Game 517-518: Rutgers at DePaul (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 57.917; DePaul 60.191
Dunkel Line: DePaul by 2 1/2; 150
Vegas Line: DePaul by 1; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (-1); Over

Game 519-520: Kentucky at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 69.530; Tennessee 65.946
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 3 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 1; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+1); Under

Game 521-522: St. Joseph's at LaSalle (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 60.657; LaSalle 63.656
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 3; 129
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 5; 133
Dunkel Pick: St. Joseph's (+5); Under

Game 523-524: Florida at Auburn (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 76.970; Auburn 62.324
Dunkel Line: Florida by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida by 17
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+17)

Game 525-526: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 63.540; Oklahoma State 74.472
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 11
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-9)

Game 527-528: TCU at Iowa State (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 50.710; Iowa State 72.921
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 22
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 18
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-18)

Game 529-530: Illinois-Chicago at Loyola-Chicago (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IIllinois-Chicago 47.584; Loyola-Chicago 56.926
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (-3 1/2)

Game 531-532: Virginia Tech at NC State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 55.510; NC State 72.765
Dunkel Line: NC State by 17 1/2; 160
Vegas Line: NC State by 15; 155
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-15); Over

Game 533-534: Purdue at Indiana (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 60.473; Indiana 76.302
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 16; 137
Vegas Line: Indiana by 19; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+19); Under

Game 535-536: Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 62.272; Wake Forest 58.010
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 3
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+3)

Game 537-538: Eastern Michigan at Ball State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 52.572; Ball State 51.154
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Ball State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+2 1/2)

Game 539-540: Indiana State at Bradley (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 60.852; Bradley 60.444
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+2 1/2)

Game 541-542: SMU at Tulane (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 55.928; Tulane 59.447
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 3 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Tulane by 5 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+5 1/2); Under

Game 543-544: Creighton at Evansville (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 66.284; Evansville 59.131
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 7; 144
Vegas Line: Creighton by 5; 139
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-5); Over

Game 545-546: Buffalo at Miami (OH) (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 52.088; Miami (OH) 51.622
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+2)

Game 547-548: Butler at Fordham (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 65.057; Fordham 51.373
Dunkel Line: Butler by 13 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Butler by 11; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-11); Over

Game 549-550: South Carolina at Alabama (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 55.481; Alabama 65.018
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Alabama by 12
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+12)

Game 551-552: Colorado State at Air Force (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 69.609; Air Force 67.673
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 2
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+4)

Game 553-554: UCLA at Stanford (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 62.635; Stanford 70.323
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 7 1/2; 146
Vegas Line: Stanford by 4 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-4 1/2); Over

Game 555-556: Fresno State at Wyoming (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 56.122; Wyoming 62.420
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+9 1/2)

Game 557-558: Texas Tech at West Virginia (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 49.854; West Virginia 65.982
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 16
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-14 1/2)

Game 559-560: Missouri at Arkansas (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 64.333; Arkansas 70.677
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 6 1/2; 151
Vegas Line: Missouri by 1; 156
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+1); Under

Game 561-562: Georgia State at George Mason (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 54.962; George Mason 57.844
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 3
Vegas Line: George Mason by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+6 1/2)

Game 563-564: Towson at Hofstra (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 53.696; Hofstra 52.378
Dunkel Line: Towson by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Towson by 4
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+4)

Game 565-566: Houston at Tulsa (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 51.478; Tulsa 59.671
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 8; 148
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 4 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-4 1/2); Over

Game 567-568: Gonzaga at San Francisco (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 73.186; San Francisco 58.791
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 12
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-12)

Game 593-594: Kent State at Ohio (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 54.926; Ohio 64.287
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 9 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Ohio by 11; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+11); Under

marksmoneymakers Posts:12016 Followers:137
02/16/2013 08:39 AM

Betting the Bubble: Four Teams Fighting for Field of 68

The NCAA tournament bubble is growing more and more each week, with teams trying to make a case for the final field of 68.

There is just under a month left in the regular season for most programs, putting the crunch on those whose resumes may not be up to snuff. That pressure can sometimes give teams added betting value as Selection Sunday draws near.

Here are four bubble teams bettors should keep an eye on down the stretch:

Boise State Broncos (16-7 SU, 10-9 ATS)

Key wins: Creighton, UNLV, Wyoming (twice)

The Broncos are a testament to just how deep the Mountain West Conference is. Experts are projecting five MWC teams to make the NCAA, given there are no upsets in the mid-major tournaments. Boise State needs another win over a conference power to lock down a spot, with upcoming games versus New Mexico, Colorado State, and San Diego State.

North Carolina Tar Heels (16-8 SU, 13-9 ATS)

Key wins: UNLV

Strength of schedule alone won’t be enough for UNC if it doesn’t start winning key ACC games. The Tar Heels have played plenty of good teams but failed to pick up a resume booster in both non-conference and conference play. North Carolina must win upcoming tilts with N.C. State, Maryland and Duke – and hope the Terrapins stumble – to make the cut.

Mississippi Rebels (18-6 SU, 11-8 ATS)

Key wins: Missouri

No team benefits more from Nerlens Noel’s season-ending injury than Ole Miss. The Rebels are running neck-and-neck with Kentucky, which already has a win over them this season. Mississippi’s lone feather in its cap is a win over Missouri and the remaining schedule isn’t built to impress. Ole Miss will have to win out and win out big in those seven games to remove all doubts.

UCLA Bruins (18-7 SU, 9-15 ATS)

Key wins: Arizona, Missouri

The Bruins seemed locked into a tourney ticket earlier in Pac-12 play, but three bad losses in their last five games have made UCLA very bubbly. The crazy thing is, the Bruins have enough talent to make some noise in March. They just need to get the job done during the upcoming sked, which has UCLA on the road in four of those six games.

marksmoneymakers Posts:12016 Followers:137
02/16/2013 08:40 AM

Study Group: Saturday's Top 25 NCB Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday’s ranked college basketball games:

(21) Notre Dame at Providence (-1.5)

This is a matchup of two of the worst scoring defenses in the league. Providence is 13th (out of 15 teams) at 69.1 points, while Notre Dame ranks 14th at 69.4. The Irish have been forced to play seven overtimes in four games this month, winning each of the three contests not decided in regulation. Notre Dame has taken the last nine meetings, including four in Providence. The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

(17) Pittsburgh at (20) Marquette (+2)

The Panthers have won seven of eight after dispatching then-No. 17 Cincinnati on Saturday, their third straight 10-point victory. After scoring a season high-tying 89 points in a rout of DePaul, the Golden Eagles had 19 turnovers and scored just 55 points in a loss at Georgetown on Monday. Since playing eight straight games decided by single digits, including three that went to overtime, Marquette has had five consecutive games decided by 10 points or more. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

(6) Florida at Auburn (+16.5)

All of Florida’s 10 SEC victories have been by double digits, including a 69-52 triumph over Kentucky on Tuesday. The Gators lead the conference in field-goal shooting and field-goal defense, among other categories, and are one of the most balanced teams in the nation. Auburn started the SEC season with two victories, but has dropped eight of its last nine contests. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.

Oklahoma at (16) Oklahoma State (-9)

The Sooners, who are 4-4 on the road, never trailed in a 77-68 victory over the Cowboys on Jan. 12 in Norman, shooting a season-high 61.5 percent from 3-point range. The Cowboys, who are 12-1 at home, have a six-game win streak and are coming off a 91-67 victory at Texas Tech on Wednesday. Oklahoma State has dropped 11 of the last 17 meetings with Oklahoma. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Purdue at (2) Indiana (-19)

The last time Indiana and Purdue met, the Hoosiers handed the Boilermakers their worst home loss in school history. The Hoosiers rolled to a 97-60 victory on Jan. 30, draining a season-high 12 3-pointers en route to scoring the most points ever allowed by one of coach Matt Painter’s Boilermaker teams. Purdue has dropped 16 of its last 19 matchups against ranked opponents, including five straight by an average of 19.6 points. The Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

(23) Creighton at Evansville (+5.5)

Creighton rolled out to a school-record 17-1 start this season, thanks to an offense that averaged 79.7 points. Over the last eight games, however, the Bluejays’ scoring has dipped to 70.4 points. The Purple Aces fell to the Bluejays 87-70 on Dec. 29 and have lost three of four overall after Wednesday’s loss to league-worst Southern Illinois. Creighton is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.

(10) Butler at Fordham (+11)

Another loss by Butler has put the Bulldogs in a tight spot heading into their Atlantic 10 game Saturday at Fordham. Butler, the only ranked team in the conference, lost to Charlotte on Wednesday, knocking the Bulldogs out of first place. Butler is also expected to be without one of its key big men, while the Rams are expected to welcome one back. Andrew Smith, the second-leading scorer (11.4) and rebounder (5.4) for Butler, will reportedly miss a second consecutive game with an abdominal injury. Erik Fromm, a 6-8 junior forward, will make his second start of the season in Smith’s spot. Fordham will reportedly have Chris Gaston back in the starting lineup. The 6-7 senior forward, who led the team in scoring and rebounding the previous three seasons, missed the last seven games with knee issues. The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.

(24) Colorado State at Air Force (+3.5)

This is the second of a very difficult four-game stretch for the Rams that started with a 66-60 win over San Diego State at home on Wednesday and continues with games at UNLV and at home against league-leader New Mexico next week. The Rams crushed Air Force 70-49 in the first meeting on Jan. 16, but the Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.

(3) Gonzaga at San Francisco (+12)

Gonzaga won its seventh consecutive game Thursday at Saint Mary’s, a convincing 77-60 victory that gave the Bulldogs a two-game lead in conference play. San Francisco is tied for sixth in the WCC, but six of its eight losses have come by six points or less. If the Dons can shoot the way they did the last two games, they could join the list of teams who have toppled top five opponents this season. San Francisco combined to shoot 23-for-45 from beyond the arc the last two games, including a 9-for-10 performance in the second half of last Saturday’s victory against BYU. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four Saturday games.

(1) Duke at Maryland (+5.5)

Maryland’s NCAA Tournament hopes could be on the line Saturday when the Terrapins host top-ranked Duke, which is looking to extend its winning streak to seven. Maryland has had six days off since a demoralizing 80-69 loss at home to Virginia, while Duke is riding a wave of emotion after beating rival North Carolina 73-68 on Wednesday. Duke beat the Terrapins by 20 at Cameron Indoor on Jan. 26. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

Baylor at (11) Kansas State (-4.5)

Two of the premier scorers in the Big 12 will go head-to-head in this matchup. Pierre Jackson, a 5-foot-10 senior guard for the Bears, averages a conference-leading 18.9 points, reaching double-digits in the last 31 games - also the longest-active streak in the Big 12. Kansas State will lean on 6-foot-4 senior guard Rodney McGruder, who is fourth in the Big 12 in scoring at 15.2. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

(25) Memphis at Marshall (+10.5)

Memphis looks to remain unbeaten in Conference USA when the Tigers visit Marshall. Memphis, which is 6-0 on the road, beat the Thundering Herd 73-72 at home on Jan. 26. The Tigers have a 15-game win streak, including the nation’s longest road win streak (10), and are coming off a 93-71 victory at home against Central Florida on Wednesday. Marshall is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Conference USA foes.

(7) Syracuse at Seton Hall (+10)

The Orange have dropped three straight league road games, but still sit tied atop the Big East with Georgetown and Marquette. The Pirates have lost 10 of 11, including four losses against ranked teams, and sit near the bottom of the Big East standings. Things are so bad that junior guard Fuquan Edwin called a players-only meeting after Tuesday's 57-55 loss to Rutgers. Syracuse is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.

(8) Michigan State at Nebraska (+10)

Nebraska has been pesky at times, giving the top teams in the league such as Michigan, Ohio State and the Spartans a scare. The Cornhuskers struggle to score, averaging 58.6 points – last in the Big Ten and have dropped three of their last four games. The Spartans have been sharp since 2013 began, losing only once in 11 games – 75-70 at Indiana on Jan. 27. Michigan State is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.

Texas at (13) Kansas (-13.5)

Now that Texas has Myck Kabongo back with the team, the Longhorns will try to play spoiler when they travel to Kansas for a Big 12 game. Kabongo played his first game of the season Wednesday against Iowa State, ending a 23-game suspension by the NCAA. He produced 13 points, seven rebounds and five assists in the 89-86 overtime victory that put a big dent in the Cyclones’ title hopes. Kansas is tied for first atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma State and Kansas State, which the Jayhawks beat on Monday to avoid their first four-game losing streak since 1988-89. Kansas is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.

(22) San Diego State at UNLV (-4)

San Diego State is coming off a 66-60 loss at streaking Colorado State, while UNLV has dropped three of its last four games. The Rebels won at San Diego State 82-75 earlier in the season, their only win on the road in conference play. The Runnin' Rebels are a different team at home going 14-1, but are 1-5 ATS in their last six Saturday games.

Boise State at (18) New Mexico (-8)

The Lobos rallied from nine points to force overtime a month ago and hand Boise State its only home. The Broncos are 3-4 since that loss while the Lobos have grabbed first place in the Mountain West Conference. Boise State is one of five teams with multiple road victories against a ranked team (beat Creighton and Wyoming). The Lobos are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.

marksmoneymakers Posts:12016 Followers:137
02/16/2013 08:40 AM

Dave Essler

CBB Saturday Cliff Notes

UVA at North Carolina: I guess the obvious first question is whether UNC has any energy/emotion after playing Duke to the wire, and getting mauled by Miami before that. The only home loss they've got was to Miami. They're sitting at 6-5 and actually two full games behind UVA in the ACC. The slight issue with UVA is that they also travel to Miami on Tuesday, but in this particular situation, and the fact that UVA is not a perennial power, they're not (probably) looking ahead here. They lost here badly to the Heels last season. The dichotomy here is that you've got one of THE slowest teams against perhaps THE fastest team, so this really will come down to a battle of will for tempo. I like UVA to take them down. If they're going to shoot three's all day, then that's the worst part of the UNC defense. Neither team gets to the FT line a ton, but UNC doesn't make them when they do. Even though neither team has much experience, if certainly feels like the Cavaliers have a lot more. They haven't been impressive on the road, but after that Maryland beating, I wouldn't put it past them here.

Pittsburgh at Marquette: I'm not a huge fan of either right now, Marquette was completely owned by G-town, and I said this morning I felt that the Panthers were the worst team in the top 20. However, this is a rematch of an earlier Marquette win this season AT Pittsburgh. That was their only decent road win, too. And the Panthers will be favored and will have had an extra few days to prepare for this game. You have to like the Panthers inside game against a size-challenged Marquette front-court, but what does concern me is Pitt's free throw shooting (or lack of at time) while Marquette, at home, should get some calls and has been an excellent FT shooting team. FT's and rebounding are what's going to win these wars in the last couple of weeks. Have to give the Panthers' defense the over riding, scale-tipping lean here, but I'll be damned if I'll lay points on the road in most any conference. This could be case of using Marquette in a teaser, because they'll already catch a couple, and this will (should) be a low scoring (hint) game.

San Diego State at UNLV: Well, I guess everyone assumes now that UNLV is back in Las Vegas that it's showtime, especially given SDSU's loss at Colorado State. The Aztecs lost to the Rebels a month ago in San Diego (obviously) in a game where they (UNLV) owned everything. They dominated the boards, took 51 shots, and held SDSU to 3-19 from behind the arc. Almost for that reason we SHOULD take SDSU here, but we've got to get past their road woes, first. Their only road wins were at Nevada and at Fresno (barely). And well these two have been under-performing, it;s now New Mexico and CSU that pretty much own the MWC's first and second seeds. UNLV probably doesn't give a shit, seeing as how that tournament's on their home court. Rebels clearly have the easier schedule going forward with for game at home, but they've got perhaps a bigger game with CSU Wednesday. Obviously my biggest concern is UNLV's turnovers. SDSU is number #1 in protecting the ball, too. Don't trust either team at the line. Comes down to another battle for tempo here. These guys played two two-point games last season, and this one could be no different. I suppose it will depend on the number, Scotty, or someone in Las Vegas who knows which team(s) will show up. But, since it's a late game we'll all wanna know, one way or the other. Clearly more value to me in lesser marquee games, so far.

Baylor at K-State: Very big game for both teams. K-State in a three way tie for first in the Conference and Baylor sitting a game back. I suppose people will now assume K-State sucks because they got reamed by Kansas, which was predictable. But, their only home loss was to those same Jayhawks. (K-State will beat them the third time) so winning here is not going to be easy for Baylor. I've said it several times, teams seeing K-State for the first time are seeing Bruce Weber, not Frank Martin. Baylor hasn't played anyone any good over the last couple of weeks, and really has zero quality road wins. Honestly, with the schedule they've got left if they're not careful it's the NIT for these guys. K-State will S-L-O-W this game down, and they have typically owned the offensive glass, so right off I lean under here, given that neither team gets to the line (surprising for Baylor's height, actually) and when they do neither one shoots 70%, which is not good enough for the over.

Missouri at Arkansas: Well, are the Tigers back now or is the the Arkansas team that drilled Florida. I'd like to have been catching a few more points with the Hogs, because even though this is a rivalry of sorts, Missouri is at Florida. That's not a situation I want to back them in, so it's probably going to be Hogs or pass. No doubt that total will be set high, since Missouri doesn't create a lot of them, I could make a case for the total going over. But, my guess is that the number will be bet up fairly quickly. Both defenses are near the bottom of the SEC in defending three pointers, so this really could be the race to 80. Missouri shooting nearly 78% from the line in Conference play, and Arkansas just doesn't rebound well (Missouri does) which also means some fast break chances. If and how Arkansas scores is probably totally dependent on their mindset. The team that hit them from the rafters against Florida is not the team we know, but we DO know that the capability is there. Best bet here is the over, IMO.

Detroit at Valpo: Who knew that Valpo would be a full two games clear of Detroit in the Horizon League, with a shot a essentially clinching it at home this early, or at least the number one seed. New landscape without Butler. The downside is that Detroit will do anything and everything here, because obviously a loss and they are simply playing for post season somewhere, and they've got to avenge at loss Valpo handed them in Detroit a while back. Valpo been freakish at home, and Detroit did lose on the road to Cleveland State. The issue I have with Detroit is that they've got the Bracketbuster game at Witchita State next week, so they can ALMOST afford a loss, win that (not likely) and do well in the Conference Tournament and play somewhere in March. Valpo gets EKU at home next Saturday, but the do have a Conference road game Tuesday AT Loyola Chicago. Valpo will turn the ball over and Detroit won't, so that could be the great equalizer. Between that and both teams rebounding well, if Valpo can play it more at their pace, I lean under.

marksmoneymakers Posts:12016 Followers:137
02/16/2013 08:41 AM

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB AUSTIN PEAY at SIU EDWARDSVL

Play Against - A home team (SIU EDWARDSVL) average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an poor defensive team (45-47.5%), average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 Reb/G) - 15+ games.
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% -0.2 units )

CBB SACRAMENTO ST at N COLORADO

Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO ST) off a road loss against a conference rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
116-30 since 1997. ( 79.5% 52.7 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% -1.8 units )

CBB GONZAGA at SAN FRANCISCO

Play Against - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (GONZAGA) off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite.
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )