friday ncaa hoops helpful information
10 Replies | 413 ViewsOn 02/15/2013 08:57 AM in NCAA Basketball
Friday Cliff Notes
G-Town at Cincinnati: Bearcats looked good against 'Nova (unfortunately) but I really wonder how much of that was Villanova's youth making them look better than they are/were. Clearly they started stroking the ball, but early on when the confidence wasn't there, they threw up bricks. Hoyas have been equally impressive, but for longer. They've got a gimme next while Cincinnati travels to UConn. Clearly though, there is no such thing as a look-ahead right now in this Conference. Hoyas have a bit of a score to settle in that they lost at home to the Bearcats and lost in OT in the Big East Tournament to them as well. Hard to imagine this one going over with two of the top ten defenses in the nation, which is exactly why I might consider it, and that would be mainly because they know each other so well. Not sure I can lay points here, but it's got to be the Bearcats almost as a fade of G'Town's youth, and the fact that they will get to the line more.
Iona at Manhattan: The suddenly surging Jaspers who have won four of their last five and have a score to settle from an earlier loss at Iona, but it was only an eight point loss, so they've got every reason to think they can win this game. Iona first of three straight road games, including a tough on at Fairfield on Monday and the their bracketbuster game at Indiana State next weekend. Given their inability to play much defense and Manhattan's new-found confidence, I clearly lean to the home team here. They'll slow it down, and the Jaspers' have the #1 ranked defense in Conference play in terms of efficiency. And yes, they can defend the perimeter reasonably well.
Columbia at Brown: I suppose Brown could be dangerous here, not having played a home game in almost a month. They are a big, slow, three point shooting team, which can cause issues if they get even luke warm, especially at the pace they'll play. Columbia is almost a mirror image in what they want to do, but the do it just a bit better. Perhaps the biggest difference is that they (Columbia) do get to the line a lot, and are a good FT shooting team, and don't turn the ball over. Always tough to lay those short numbers on the road (for me), but stat-wise there is no other option. Brown capable, they've beaten Niagra and Providence, so this would certainly not be a stretch here.
Niagra at Marist: Niagra could be getting to the point where they're now over valued. That double-ot loss at home to Loyola may have been a tipping point for this young team. Whereas Marist comes in a little warm, having upset Iona on the road and beaten Loyola at home. Marist did play a great non-conference schedule was I can assure has jaded their stats to some extent. Niagra's defense is, from an efficiency standpoint, not that far behind Marist's at all. Marist has a little more experience and a little more length. Just don't like Niagra's situation here. Two Conference road games and the home next weekend against Northwestern State just doesn't sit right with me. Lean Marist for the upset here.
Wisconsin MW at Youngstown State: Youngstown, for all their January ATS wins/betting love, really only has one good win and that was at home over Valpo. Yes, it's hard to back a team as bad as MW, especially on the road, but there is Sunday's game against Green Bay that Valpo could be thinking more about. MW hasn't won a road game, and in fact hasn't really been IN a road game since early January at Wright State. They ARE bigger and they ARE more experienced (OK, older) but can we really take them seriously here. Probably better games or a total will come out, but BECAUSE MW can hit threes once in while, I couldn't rule them out.
Wisc GB at Cleveland State: Green Bay is certainly going to be loved by bettors after beating Detroit, and Cleveland State not-so-much after getting shelled by Detroit in a rare Tuesday (make up) Horizon League game. But, this is the same Cleveland State team that actually beat Detroit at home earlier this season, so let's not be quick to dismiss a home team catching a couple of possessions. GB is in a tough scheduling spot, with three of their last four Conference games on the road, in addition to a game at Drake next weekend. Cleveland State is young and tiny, while GB is one of the biggest teams in the nation. But, they'll play this game slow enough to where I certainly don't see it being a boatrace. GB can in fact be turnover prone, and one of the things the little quick team will do to the big slow team is steal the ball. I just don't know if CS can combat the massive amount of FT's GB usually takes, and makes.