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jimmy
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Free Pick Yale +1 over Penn

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On 02/08/2013 10:00 AM in Cappers
Yale vs. Pennsylvania, 02/08/2013 19:00
Point Spread: +1/-105 Yale

The biggest edge I see for Yale tonight is on the glass where they are grabbing 36 boards per game and 11 offense rebounds compared to 32 and 8 for their opponents. Penn on the other hand is grabbing only 31 and 7 while allowing opponents to grab 36 and 10.

Yale is 16-5 ATS on the road against teams being out rebounded by 4+ per game the second half of the season dating back to 1997 and 29-14 ATS against teams being outscored by 4+ points per game. Penn is 19-39 ATS at home when playing a sub .500 team the second half of the season since 1997 and 7-18 ATS at home after a loss by six points or less.

You wan to play against home teams where the line is + or - 3 when that team has lost five or six of their last seven games, and the team is winning 20% or less less of their games on the year. This situation is 41-17 (71%) over the last five seasons. Penn fits because they only have two wins in their last seven and are 4-16 on the year.

Neither one of these teams is very good, but Penn is even worse than Yale so I'll go with the road team.

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