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Fading Home 'Dogs
February 4, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
RUSTY HOME 'DOGS
Generally speaking, the first rule most good handicappers look to apply is ferreting out live underdogs that have a realistic shot at winning the game. That’s because three things can happen when you bet on an underdog – and two of them are good (my pet handicapping philosophy).
There are, however, certain 'dogs that can bite the hand that feeds them if they are not conditioned to win. For the most part they are either bad teams with faulty defenses or fatigued to the point where their stats simply don’t matter.
On the opposite end of fatigue are teams who become a bit too rusty due to an excessive amount of time off. This rule especially holds true to teams in College Basketball.
We call them the Rust Brigade. That’s because…
College Hoops Home 'Dogs with 7 Or More Days Of Rest Turn to Rust
Too much rest tends to make teams lethargic.
That’s confirmed by the fact that Division-1 College Basketball teams playing at home as conference dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 66-99-3 ATS since 1990.
That’s a dismal 40.7% ATS, making these teams prime ‘Play Against’ material.
Rusty Home 'Dogs Off back-To-Back Losses Simply Don’t Care
Lethargic home 'dogs playing poorly continue to play badly.
Once again, the numbers do not lie. College Basketball teams playing off back-to-back losses at conference home as dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 22-43 ATS since 1990.
Put them up against non-fatigued opponents (ones that have at least 3 days of rest) and they dip to 11-34 ATS in this role.
Poor Rusty Home 'Dogs Off Back-To-back Losses Really Disappear
There is nothing worse than a team that knows it’s beat before they take the court.
That is born out by the fact that these rusty home 'dogs with a losing record, playing off back-to-back losses against well-rested (three or more days of rest) conference opponents are just 7-31 ATS since 1990.
Worse, these pacified puppies are a paltry 1-16 ATS in this role from Game Eighteen out!
There you have it. Another solid betting strategy to follow from now until the College Conference Tourneys begin later this month.
Enjoy the games and remember to let sleeping dogs lie.