02/08/2013 10:48 AM
I use several factors in the NBA:
1) home vs away - obviously home is better
2) head-to-head results of both teams
3) overall records of both teams
4) talent and how the teams matchup with each other
In the NCAAB, I don't follow the league much so I mostly rely on picks by other good cappers on the site, the blog and just looking at the matchups here at the site.
Basically, I'm looking for matchups where either the visiting team is better but the home team (as an underdog)'s more rested or simply matches up well against that particular team, or the teams are of equal value/rest/injuries situation but the visiting team's an underdog because of the home factor. I'm trying to find a situation where I expect the underdog to be able to win about half the time, and by taking the ML for +110 to +130 I think I could find some value.
I'll post 2 examples: of a game I would play and a game I wouldn't play in a separate post.