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1) home vs away - obviously home is better
2) head-to-head results of both teams
3) overall records of both teams
4) talent and how the teams matchup with each other
In the NCAAB, I don't follow the league much so I mostly rely on picks by other good cappers on the site, the blog and just looking at the matchups here at the site.
Basically, I'm looking for matchups where either the visiting team is better but the home team (as an underdog)'s more rested or simply matches up well against that particular team, or the teams are of equal value/rest/injuries situation but the visiting team's an underdog because of the home factor. I'm trying to find a situation where I expect the underdog to be able to win about half the time, and by taking the ML for +110 to +130 I think I could find some value.
I'll post 2 examples: of a game I would play and a game I wouldn't play in a separate post.
Tonight GS are +3 visiting Memphis (+130 ML). However, I think they're overvalued:
GS are 0-5 straight up against Memphis on the road. Memphis lost some traction after the Rudy Gay trade but they can still play defense and they'll be looking to rebound tonight against a shaky GS team that also comes off 2 big losses @ Hou and @ OKC. Both teams have no major injuries (Jarett Jack is questionable for GS) and are in similar rest situations. Overall, I think I'll even take Memphis @ -3.