finance Posts:8135 Followers:219
On 01/29/2013 12:30 PM in NFL

Analyzing a Prop Bet

OK scanning the prop bets at DSI I came across one that I thought looked interesting....

Will both teams kick a 33+ yard FG? Yes +150 No -190...not wanting to lay -190 I'm looking to see if there's any value in "yes"..

Taking a look at the regular season, 113 of the 256 games (44%) had each team kick a FG of at least 33 yards. Looking at the 2 teams that are playing, San Fran only had 6 out of their 16 games, which makes sense given the struggles of Akers all year. Baltimore had 10 out of their 16 games, which also makes sense given that they have a pretty good kicker....

Computing the no-vig line at 44% I come up with a line of +127-ish which would make it look to me like there's value in the +150.....

However in the playoffs this bet has been a big loser as only 1 of the 10 playoff games would have been "yes" and none of the 5 games involving Baltimore or SF have qualified. The Ravens have only attempted 2 FG's in their 3 games and one of them was the game winner in OT vs. Denver, which alludes to how well their offense has been getting into the end zone....San Fran has attempted 2 in their 2 games (with Akers of course missing one of them)...

So have I talked myself out of the "yes" play? Don't know - both offenses are cranking, but both defenses are also playing well enough to stop a couple of drives each....

What does everyone think about this one?

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jimmythegreek Posts:10353 Followers:375
01/29/2013 04:43 PM

I do like this play, however given the route a once money David Akers has taken in 2012-13 I might want to think about it for just another few moments. Having said that, given the strengths of both defenses especially in the postseason I have to believe the odds are definitely showing value in those who choose to place a wager on it. I already placed a play on the under 48, and despite the off season for Akers I believe you have to play the percentages in the experience along with the rookie success.

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spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
01/29/2013 05:27 PM

What Greek said. :) True True

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finance Posts:8135 Followers:219
01/30/2013 11:02 AM

Thanks guys - going to look at the sack props today....

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finance Posts:8135 Followers:219
01/30/2013 11:19 AM

OK took a quick look at the sack numbers - odds are Balt O/U 2 -115 and SF sacks O/U 2.5 with the Over at +100

Flacco was sacked 35 times in 16 regular season games 2.2 per - 4 times in 3 playoff games 1.3 per
49ers had 38 sacks in 16 regular season games 2.4 per - 2 sacks in 2 playoff games 1.0 per

Smith/Kaepernick sacked 41 times in 16 regular season games 2.6 per - that would lean me to the over on Balt but since Kaepernick has been starting he's been sacked 16 times in 8 games or 2 per which is right on the money

Ravens had 37 sacks in 16 regular season games or 2.3 per...6 in 3 playoff games 2 per....

I don't see anything here worth taking...if 49ers under 2.5 was normal juice might be worth a shot but since not I'll pass these.....

Let's find some more to look at!!!

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btb Posts:2230 Followers:158
01/30/2013 12:18 PM

Sack wise one thing Flacco has been doing this post season is if he does have the open receiver he holds it or throws it away. I like the even money on over 2.5 for SF Sacks

I would stay away from both having 33+, ackers has been so spotty if he misses I can almost guarantee Harbaugh not going back to him unless its a chip shot. Think its a sucker bet looks to easy.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:9055 Followers:137
02/01/2013 07:19 AM

At first glance yes looked like the play to me, but after further review I will be taking a pass on this one. There are so many props to bet I think there are others that offer better value.

jimmythegreek Posts:10353 Followers:375
02/01/2013 08:14 AM

What I've got so far.

Will Frank Gore score a TD? Yes -130
over 3.5 field goals made by both teams +115
over 4.5 Boldin receptions (quite pricey) -160
under 726 net yards by both teams -115

Looking at a few more.

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finance Posts:8135 Followers:219
02/01/2013 09:49 AM

Good Luck JTG! I'll be posting all my plays Sunday morning....

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bigcat21 Posts:722 Followers:30
02/01/2013 01:27 PM

I've got
Flaco throws no int +135
Smith Receiving yards over 61.5 -125
bal wins by 1-3 points +626