jimmythegreek Posts:10357 Followers:375
On 01/20/2013 11:44 AM in NFL

FAVORITES TODAY...SPLIT THE TOTALS

San Francisco -3 (bought half) and under 48.5:
It's no great surprise Atlanta (14-3) and San Francisco (12-4-1) have reached this point as both were among the favorites to represent the NFC in New Orleans on Feb. 3. The Falcons cruised to the South title while securing the conference's best record for the second time in three seasons. Second-seeded San Francisco had to wait until Week 17 to clinch the NFC West, but they're back in the title game after suffering a mistake-filled 20-17 overtime loss to New York last season.

This postseason, coach Jim Harbaugh has the versatile Kaepernick under center instead of Alex Smith, who threw five touchdowns without an interception in last season's playoffs and was one of the league's highest-rated passers until suffering a concussion in Week 10. Kaepernick has a 98.7 passer rating while going 6-2 as a starter since taking over, and his overall performance in last Saturday's 45-31 divisional round victory over Green Bay seemingly makes San Francisco a more dangerous opponent than it was a year ago. The second-year pro rushed for a quarterback playoff-record 181 yards with a pair of touchdowns and overcame an early interception returned for a TD by throwing for 263 with two scores.

Versatile quarterbacks have given the Falcons trouble this season. Carolina's Cam Newton threw for 502 yards with four TDs and no picks while rushing for 202 and two scores in two games against them in 2012. In last Sunday's 30-28 win over Seattle, Seahawks rookie Russell Wilson passed for 385 yards with two TDs and an INT while running for 60 and a score on seven carries.

Atlanta surrendered 5.90 yards per play this season - 29th in the league - and allowed the Seahawks to average 7.44 in the divisional round. Backed by Kaepernick and one of the NFL's best defenses, the 49ers are eager for the chance to avenge last season's championships game loss and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since beating San Diego 18 years ago.

Atlanta, which blew leads of 20-0 and 27-7 against Seattle before Matt Bryant kicked a game-winning 49-yard field goal with eight seconds left, does not expect anything to come easy again Sunday. Though the Falcons possess one of the game's top passing offenses behind Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones and future Hall-of-Famer Tony Gonzalez, it was a running game that averaged 87.3 yards - 29th during the regular season - that played a key role last weekend. Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers combined to run 24 times for all but five of Atlanta's season-high 167 yards. Ryan has completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 602 yards with three TDs and three INTs while going 2-0 against the 49ers. White has 18 receptions for 369 yards and two scores in three career victories against them.

Kaepernick dispelled any doubt about his readiness for the big stage. Can you imagine how fast he’ll be on artificial turf and how deep he’ll be able to pass without having to throw into a wind? San Francisco’s defense makes a few more stops and the running game wears down the Atlanta defense just enough to secure the 49ers’ sixth NFC title and a chance to claim a sixth Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans on Feb. 3.



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jimmythegreek Posts:10357 Followers:375
01/20/2013 11:50 AM

New England -7 over Baltimore (bought half) and over 51.5:
New England (13-4) won 23-20 last year after some late dramatics. Lee Evans nearly caught a game-winning touchdown pass from Joe Flacco in the closing seconds before Patriots safety Sterling Moore knocked the ball loose from the receiver. That set the stage for Billy Cundiff's 32-yard field goal miss that would have sent the contest to overtime. Moore, Evans and Cundiff are all gone for this matchup - one that Baltimore (12-6) sees as fitting in its quest for its second Super Bowl appearance.

New England cruised last Sunday to a 41-28 win over Houston, setting up a chance to improve to 5-0 at home in AFC title games. That cemented the first AFC championship rematch since Denver and Cleveland met following the 1986 and 1987 seasons. This meeting only became possible after the Ravens advanced with a 38-35 double-overtime road win Saturday over the top-seeded Broncos, needing Flacco to come through with a tying 70-yard TD pass to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds left in regulation. The victory extended the season of retiring Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis, who is happy to see that his team will be a heavy underdog once again this week.

Brady completed 25 of 40 passes for 344 yards and three scores last weekend to improve to 17-6 in the postseason, moving past Joe Montana's record for most playoff victories. He will again match wits with safety Ed Reed, who has intercepted him twice in six games. While Brady has little to prove, Flacco is trying to reach his first Super Bowl after coming agonizingly close last year.

Flacco continues to carve out a reputation as a solid postseason quarterback after throwing for 331 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Broncos. He's now tied with the Giants' Eli Manning on the all-time list with five road playoff wins. Baltimore beat visiting New England 31-30 on a Justin Tucker field goal as time expired in Week 3, rallying from an early 13-point deficit. Flacco threw for three TDs and 382 yards - his third-highest career total - while Brady finished with 335 yards and one TD.

Flacco has thrown for 1,271 yards, nine TDs and four interceptions in five games against New England. That includes a 34-yard effort in a 33-14 wild-card victory following the 2009 season in which he was asked to protect the ball after the Ravens built a 24-0 lead after one quarter. There are numerous differences between these teams since they met in September, most notably that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs is playing for Baltimore after being out following a torn Achilles. The Ravens' secondary also has a different look with Corey Graham establishing himself as a starter at cornerback.

The return of Ray Lewis has been a great story and has surely inspired the Ravens. Winning at Denver was incredible as the Broncos were red hot. However New England is hitting their stride and peaking at the right time. In the end it's Brady and the running game that comes out on top and eventually overpowers Baltimore on offense en route to a Super Bowl return.

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spooky Posts:4089 Followers:294
01/20/2013 12:03 PM

Good luck Greek.
Cant disagree with anything you are onboard with. So get it done.

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frankbenjamin Posts:28 Followers:2
01/20/2013 12:28 PM

With you on the SF/ATL Under and NE pointspread.

Was leaning SF but now laying off the side. Also not playing the NE/Balt total.

BOL

thehitman Posts:2053 Followers:4
01/20/2013 01:15 PM

GL today, man. Everybody else, too.

Never, ever criticize someone until you have walked a mile in their shoes........for at that point they will be a mile away. And you'll have their shoes !