coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:47 PM

Report From Vegas

NFL $$ is coming on the Patriots- Ravens Under, bet as low as 49.5 at some key books. 49ers- Falcons Under getting hit too, now 47.5

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:47 PM

Sportsbooks rooting for underdogs? Not so fast

“There is kind of a misconception that we’re always rooting for the underdog to win, “ said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “We’re rooting for the underdog in most cases, but not necessarily to win, especially in big, isolated games. Dogs winning outright in a two-game setting like this weekend can sometimes be just as fatal for us with money-line parlays as both favorites covering the spread.“

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:48 PM

WHY SAN FRANCISCO COVERS


The 49ers will cover on Sunday because the Falcons will be unable to sufficiently game plan against Colin Kaepernick. If they keep a linebacker to spy on him, it potentially opens up the middle of the field. If they don't spy him, they risk getting burned on the ground. They will be playing down either way.

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:49 PM

WHY ATLANTA COVERS


For the Falcons to cover, they'll need to slow down a high-flying 49ers offense and bring firepower of their own. The key? Stop Michael Crabtree and the 49ers' dynamic tight ends and hold the edges against Colin Kaepernick. Also, don't be afraid to pass the ball deep and challenge the Niners secondary.

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:50 PM

WHY BALTIMORE COVERS

Despite losing in last year’s AFC Championship Game, Joe Flacco outperformed Tom Brady. When the teams played in Week 3, Flacco outplayed Brady again. Flacco is currently the highest-rated passer in the postseason, registering a 120.0 quarterback rating by completing 30 of 57 passes for 613 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions during wins against Indianapolis and Denver.

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:50 PM

WHY NEW ENGLAND COVERS

The addition of Aqib Talib to the Pats secondary allowed Devin McCourty to move to safety, where he is even better than at CB. In fact, McCourty has allowed a QB Rating of just 10.2 since the switch to safety. Those position changes have led to a terrific upswing in the Pats ability to stop opposing passing offenses, and their improvement on pass defense is going to be the difference-maker this time around in holding down Torrey Smith and the Ravens pass offense.

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:51 PM

Ravens better without Lewis?

With Lewis on the field, the Ravens gave up 20.3 points, 399 total yards and 137 rushing yards per game. (These numbers include the two playoff wins, but they barely change if we look only at Lewis' regular-season games.) In his absence, they actually cut their total yards and rushing yards allowed, to 324 and 115 yards per game, respectively, although they let opponents score 22.6 points per game.

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:51 PM

Consider: nearly half of the 17 teams in this round who put 38 or more points on the scoreboard in a Divisional Round victory fell short of the Super Bowl, going 9-8 straight-up.

Worse, these teams are just 9-8 SU and 4-13 ATS, including 1-12 ATS when facing a foe that tallied less than 34 points in its previous game.

With Baltimore and New England canceling one another out, that puts San Francisco on warning this Sunday.

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:51 PM

Home chalk of 9 or more points has struggled, though, posting a dismal 2-8 ATS mark.

In addition, teams who played in a Wild Card game are 11-13 SU and 14-10 ATS in title tilts, including 5-0 ATS when facing opposition that scored more than 35 points in the division round.

coleryan Posts:11965 Followers:19
01/20/2013 01:52 PM

There have been 27 OVERS and 17 UNDERS in Championship Games.

Surprisingly, the higher the total the more OVERS there have been as games with a posted total set at 46 or more points going 9-3 OVER.