marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
On 01/14/2013 07:49 AM in NFL

Newsletters Week 21

NFL Playoffs

Pointwise (3-1) 3-1 (6-2)
Sports Reporter (3-1) 1-3 (4-4)
Winning Points (3-1) 1-3 (4-4)
Gold Sheet (2-2) 2-2 (4-4)
Playbook Midweek Alert (2-2) 0-3 (2-5)
Power Sweep (0-0) 2-2 (2-2)

First column is last week, second is this week, final column overall.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/16/2013 04:53 PM

Sports Reporter

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/16/2013 04:54 PM

Winning Points

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/16/2013 04:55 PM

Gold Sheet

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/16/2013 04:57 PM

Playbook Midweek Alert

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/16/2013 04:58 PM

Gold Sheet Basketball

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/16/2013 05:00 PM

Pro Football Weekly

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/16/2013 05:02 PM

Nelly's Green Sheet:

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20, 2013

San Francisco (-3½) ATLANTA (48½) 2:00 PM
Road favorites in the NFL playoffs are just 13-20 S/U and 11-22 ATS since
1980. Seattle did win and cover as a road favorite earlier in these playoffs
and the last conference championship road favorite was a winner as Green
Bay won 21-14 in Chicago two years ago. Conference championship road
favorites are actually 5-2 S/U and ATS in the last seven instances. Colin
Kaepernick certainly erased all doubts regarding his inexperience with one
of the greatest individual performances in playoff history, rushing for 181
yards and passing for 263 as San Francisco posted nearly 600 yards on the
Packers. San Francisco was the best team in the NFL this season in terms
of yards-per-play differential and they looked like it last weekend, although
the defense that dominated early in the season has shown some
vulnerability in recent weeks, allowing 31 or more in three of the last four
games. Atlanta had the best record in the regular season but the Falcons
were certainly the most doubted contender in the postseason. Atlanta was
just a slight favorite at home last week and they failed to cover in a dramatic
30-28 win over the Seahawks. Atlanta dominated the first half with a 20-0
lead but Seattle took the lead with 31 seconds to go. Matt Ryan was able to
erase his playoff demons in two quick pass plays that put the Falcons in
range for the game-winning field goal. Atlanta was soundly out-gained on
the day, though the Falcons did control the Seattle running game and the
offense was conservative with the lead. Matt Ryan did have two costly
interceptions that nearly cost his team the game and in four career playoff
games Ryan has six interceptions. The Atlanta defense lost John Abraham
again last week although he may be able to return and his status is key for
the pass rush potential of the Falcons. Green Bay allowed 579 yards
against the 49ers last week and statistically the Falcons are an even worse
defensive team. Atlanta had trouble containing Russell Wilson last week
and also greatly struggled in both games against Cam Newton this season
as a big mobile quarterback like Kaepernick will present problems. Atlanta
has been a remarkable home team however and playing the early game
against a west coast team is certainly an advantage. Three of four regular
season losses for the 49ers came on the road though the 49ers did win and
cover in both east coast games. The 49ers did have some struggles in
domes this season, losing in Minnesota and at St. Louis, though they did
win in New Orleans. Atlanta enters this game having been out-gained by at
least 74 yards in five of the last six games. The Falcons will almost certainly
have a rushing deficit in this game and the key for Atlanta will be forcing
some turnovers as 31 takeaways on the season certainly contributed to the
success this year. Atlanta’s meltdown last week certainly is cause for
concern but this is also a team that faced years of mounting pressure from
past playoff failures. With a win out of the way, Atlanta could emerge as the
more relaxed and comfortable team as San Francisco will be the team
dealing with failing in this spot at home last year as the favorite. San
Francisco is simply the superior team in this match-up however and after
getting over the hump last week Atlanta might not be able to bring the same
intensity and the Falcons defense will have problems in this match-up. This
spread is high considering Atlanta’s success at home but the Falcons have
been a bit of a mirage all season and are not a team playing their best ball
at the right time. Backing the ‘over’ seems logical but the Atlanta defense
has been solid at home, allowing just 18 points per game and San
Francisco is not as productive offensively away from home. San Francisco
will step up defensively to advance to the Super Bowl. 49ERS BY 7
RATING 2: San Francisco (-) over Atlanta
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ San Francisco/Atlanta

NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

High Output Playoff Underdogs
PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL playoff underdog that scored at least 30
points in the previous game.
53-37-3, 58.9% since 1988
PLAY AGAINST: Atlanta, Baltimore
Tighten It: If the underdog is coming off a S/U underdog win
17-6-1, 73.9% since 1988
Applies to: Baltimore

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
SUNDAY, JANUARY 20, 2013

NEW ENGLAND (-9) Baltimore (51) 5:30 PM
New England put up 41 points last week to return to the AFC Championship
and while Houston made it a little interesting late the Patriots led 38-13 at
one point and were mainly in complete control, though Houston ended up
with similar yardage and more first downs. Turnovers have been integral to
New England’s success this season, incredibly with 41 takeaways against
only 16 giveaways and that edge was true last week as well. The
emergence of a competent running game has added a great dimension to
the New England offense this season but in a yards-per-play comparison
New England and Baltimore have similar numbers on offense with the
Ravens owning a substantial edge on defense. Baltimore is not to be
confused with the great Ravens defensive teams of past years as both of
these teams allow more than 21 points per game and rank in the bottom
half of the NFL in most defensive metrics. Baltimore has given New
England problems in recent years as these teams have split the last three
meetings including two playoff meetings. Baltimore crushed New England
in the opening playoff game after the 2009 season and last year New
England narrowly won in dramatic fashion as this is a rematch of last year’s
AFC Championship. In the regular season Baltimore posted 500 yards on
the Patriots and emerged with a 31-30 victory at home early in the season.
That was one of the few games in which New England was not able to run
the ball successfully and the Patriots lost despite a turnover advantage.
Injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Danny Woodhead are notable concerns for
the New England offense but this is a Baltimore defense that could be
exhausted after being on the field a ton the last two weeks including playing
more than an extra quarter of football last week at altitude. Certainly
Baltimore was fortunate to hit a few big plays last week but they also
soundly out-gained Denver and while Joe Flacco was not incredibly
efficient, he also did not throw an interception and only took one sack.
Baltimore had been out-gained in nine of ten games in the middle of the
season but the Ravens have now out-gained foes in four straight games.
Given the recent history between these teams expecting a tight and tense
game makes sense but the extra wear and travel on the Ravens has to be
catching up to an older team. Baltimore allowed two special teams
touchdowns last week but the Ravens also benefited from incredible big
plays as well as an ultra conservative Denver attack in key spots to
narrowly win. Getting the same performance again after back-to-back
games with 80+ defensive snaps will be a great challenge for Baltimore.
New England as scored over 35 points per game at home this season and
this is a Baltimore pass defense that has surrendered over 60 percent
completions on the season, now going against one of the best passers
ever. Baltimore was a team that in the regular season had vastly worse
numbers in road games while New England is 7-2 ATS at home this season
despite facing steep spreads in almost every outing. These teams also
were strong ‘over’ teams on the season with the ‘over’ hitting in 12 of 17
New England games and 10 of 18 Ravens games. Tom Brady had two
interceptions in this game last season and the Ravens still lost, though they
were a completion away from the upset. New England won’t likely have the
big time of possession deficit this time around however with a much more
developed running game and a defense that is very good in the red zone
despite allowing some yardage. The Ravens will be a popular underdog this
week but New England was a similar favorite last week over a superior
team and one big win doesn’t hide flaws for the Ravens. PATS BY 14
RATING 2: New England (-) over Baltimore
RATING 1: ‘OVER’ Baltimore/New England

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/18/2013 06:58 AM

Statfox

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marksmoneymakers Posts:17044 Followers:141
01/19/2013 10:59 AM

Gold Sheet Basketball

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