cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/27/2011 07:26 PM

NFL odds: Week 4 opening line report

Normally you go to Disney World after winning the Super Bowl. The Bills are going to Cincinnati.

Buffalo deserves to celebrate after beating big, bad New England for the first time in 16 tries and doing so in stunning fashion: overcoming a 21-0 deficit, intercepting glamour boy Tom Brady a record four times.

But will there be a hangover?

“That was essentially their Super Bowl in the AFC East, plus they have a game on deck with Philly,” Caesars Palace sportsbook supervisor Todd Fuhrman told *********** on Monday. “You talk about a situational spot that doesn’t favor Buffalo? This sets up as a prime flat spot for them.”

Caesars opened the Bills at -3 (-120) and at that price, Fuhrman said, “we fully anticipate the Bengals are a side the house is going to need Sunday. I think the public will come in hand over fist on Buffalo having seen what they did against the Pats.”

Early indications support that: 81 percent of *********** Consensus bettors are siding with Buffalo.

Fuhrman can see the line going to 3.5, but he feared too much wise-guy action on Cincy if he opened it that high.

After the historic 34-31 win, Bills corner Drayton Florence insisted his team expected the outcome.

"It's time for those past Buffalo Bill memories to fade away," said Florence, who intercepted a tipped ball in the fourth quarter and returned it 27 yards for a TD. "This is a new era, a new day. ... Everybody outside of this room is calling this an upset, but in this locker room, this is what we expected."
If that’s true, then perhaps there won’t be a major letdown.

Interestingly, teams that beat the Patriots in 2009 and 2010 went 6-1 straight up (SU) and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their next games. So there was no letdown, perhaps a confidence jolt instead.

On the flip side, the Bills are 1-5 SU and ATS after facing the Patriots, Covers Expert Marc Lawrence noted.

The Bills were 5-point dogs at Cincy last year when they outscored the Bengals 35-0 after halftime to win 49-31. The Bills also would have been underdogs this year had they played in Week 1 instead of Week 4, according to Lawrence.

Now the Bills are getting their due.

Oddsmaker Pete Korner recommended a line of 3.5 in Buffalo-Cincy.

“We went over the magic 3 number,” Korner said. “A lot of their magic was at home. Now you’re on the road, and even if you are playing an inferior team, Cincinnati hasn’t been that bad. And when you’re on the road, things happen.”

The Bills are 2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU and 3-0 O/U. They’re 3-0 ATS in the second half, when they morph into a scoring machine.

The posted total of 44 could rise. Buffalo’s three games have soared over the total by an average of 17.7 points.

BIGGEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Denver at Green Bay (-13, 47.5)

The Packers could be a bit flat after beating their archrivals at Soldier Field. But the Broncos are making their second straight trip east.

Green Bay is 13-4 ATS in non-conference games since 2007.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

New York Giants at Arizona (1, 44.5), Minnesota at Kansas City (1, 40), Tennessee at Cleveland (-1, 37.5)

The Giants are 14-6 ATS as road favorites since 2006.

The Chiefs showed some fight Sunday, losing 20-17 at San Diego for their first ATS win in their last nine games, including preseason. Minnesota has the dubious distinction of being the best of the NFL’s five winless teams. If the Lions had not gotten away with holding defensive end Jared Allen multiple times, they might be 2-1 and the VIkes 1-2.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

New England at Oakland (4.5, 53.5)

You basically can’t set a Pats total too high. New England has a 13-1 O/U mark in their last 14 regular-season and playoff games. All of Oakland’s games this season have gone over, too.

Fuhrman said the Patriots are causing him to post some of the highest NFL totals he’s ever posted. Sunday’s game against Buffalo went off at 54 at Caesars.

SMALLEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Tennessee at Cleveland (-1, 37.5)

The Titans just lost wideout Kenny Britt, and running back Chris Johnson looks hesitant after missing most of training camp. He’s not hitting holes with his trademark burst.

Cleveland has scored 17 points in two of its three games.

“I really believe Tennessee played above their heads against Baltimore,” Fuhrman said. “They mustered 17 points against a bad Denver defense on Sunday and 14 points against the Jaguars in the opener.”

Both defenses have played better than expected. The Titans rank first in total defense (261 yards per game), and the Browns ninth (316 ypg).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/27/2011 07:27 PM

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 4

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Sunday, October 2

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DETROIT (3 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (0 - 3) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-115 ATS (-43.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 40-63 ATS (-29.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 2-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 1) at CLEVELAND (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 101-132 ATS (-44.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against AFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (0 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (0 - 3) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 48-77 ATS (-36.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 22-48 ATS (-30.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 19-41 ATS (-26.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 2) - 10/2/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (3 - 0) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at OAKLAND (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 138-105 ATS (+22.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/2/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 3

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/3/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/27/2011 07:28 PM

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 4

Sunday, 10/2/2011

DETROIT at DALLAS, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 8-2 ATS off division game
DALLAS: 1-6 ATS in October

NEW ORLEANS at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 7-0 Over Away if the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
JACKSONVILLE: 25-12 ATS off BB road games

SAN FRANCISCO at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-6 ATS after covering 2 of L3
PHILADELPHIA: 14-2 Under after allowing 25+ pts BB games

WASHINGTON at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 0-4 ATS in dome games
ST LOUIS: 18-33 ATS after allowing 400+ yds

TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 1-6 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
CLEVELAND: 21-7 Under as home favorite of 3 pts or less

BUFFALO at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 30-9 ATS off win by 3 pts or less
CINCINNATI: 0-6 ATS vs. AFC East

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 23-9 Over Away off BB home games
KANSAS CITY: 25-12 ATS in non-conf home games

CAROLINA at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 0-7 ATS as road dog of 7 pts or less
CHICAGO: 16-4 Under after allowing 375+ yds BB games

PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 43-26 ATS in October
HOUSTON: 16-6 Over off BB road games

ATLANTA at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
ATLANTA: 6-0 ATS off ATS loss
SEATTLE: 19-41 ATS off division win

NY GIANTS at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 23-9 ATS off outright division win as dog
ARIZONA: 37-18 ATS at home off BB SU losses

MIAMI at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
MIAMI: 32-13 ATS vs. AFC West
SAN DIEGO: 10-1 Under vs. Miami

DENVER at GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM ET
DENVER: 5-15 ATS vs. NFC North
GREEN BAY: 6-0 ATS off BB road games

NEW ENGLAND at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 17-3 Over in all games
OAKLAND: 12-27 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

NY JETS at BALTIMORE, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NY JETS: 11-1 Over in road games
BALTIMORE: 12-25 ATS off 2 game road trip


Monday, 10/3/2011

INDIANAPOLIS at TAMPA BAY, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
INDIANAPOLIS: 39-17 Over Away off SU Loss
TAMPA BAY: 11-3 ATS off home game

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/27/2011 07:29 PM

NFL


Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Sunday, October 2

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Cincinnati is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. HOUSTON
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Houston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. KANSAS CITY
Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 12 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Cleveland is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
Chicago is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
Chicago is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games

4:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Arizona is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE
Atlanta is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. GREEN BAY
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:15 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN DIEGO
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

4:15 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England

8:20 PM
NY JETS vs. BALTIMORE
NY Jets are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games


Monday, October 3

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TAMPA BAY
Indianapolis is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Indianapolis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/28/2011 06:57 PM

Drew Brees And Saints At Jacksonville Jaguars

The clubs have split the last four clashes, with the Saints covering three.
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints go marching into Jacksonville this Sunday to take on the Jaguars in Week 4 of the NFL season. Game time is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) and some markets will be able to catch the action on FOX.

Interestingly, the 2-1 Saints opened up -8 on the road over the 1-2 Jaguars but the number has shifted toward Jacksonville. Currently on the Don Best odds screen, New Orleans is favored by 6½. The total is 45½.

The Saints come into this week tied for second in the league in scoring at 34.7 points per game, and that was against a tough list of opponents. Their only loss is against the defending champion Green Bay Packers.

New Orleans blew out the Chicago Bears, and rallied last week to put 40 on a Houston Texans team that is supposed to have a revamped defense.

The offense all revolves around Brees, one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Stats are not even necessary to illustrate how good he is but just for good measure he has a completion percentage of 68.5. In the National Football League, that’s incredible.

He also got an upgrade – yes, an upgrade – when the Saints dumped running back Reggie Bush essentially for Darren Sproles who leads the team in receptions and is incredibly versatile, dangerous and durable.

On the other side, there aren’t many believers out there in the Jags, but do not try to group them at the very bottom of the league yet.

Jacksonville’s ‘D’ is flying under the radar. While it has only been three games, the Jaguars are fourth in total defense, seventh against the pass and fifth against the run. They are the only team to hold their opponents under 300 yards in each game thus far.

As far as points go, they gave up 14 to Tennessee, 16 to Carolina and 32 to the Jets. That 32 may look bad, but New York was given a ton of short fields after QB Luke McCown had a historically bad day and threw four interceptions.

This week could either bring that defense down to Earth or show that the unit is for real.

The problem for the Jags is offense. They have only been able to muster 29 points and one red zone trip all season, both franchise lows through three outings.

It sounds like star running back Maurice Jones-Drew has been shut down to force bad passing situations, right? That would be incorrect. In fact, MJD has enjoyed his best start to a season ever. All Jacksonville needs is above average quarterback play and they will begin to win games.

Rookie Blaine Gabbert made his first start last week in an absolute monsoon in Carolina against the Panthers. The first TD pass of his career was a memorable one. He threw a pass up at the end of the half to Mike Thomas who sloshed forward into the end zone. Supposedly, that play was the same one in which Thomas caught a Hail Mary prayer to defeat the Houston Texans last year.

Gabbert looked just fine in his starting debut and did not make any inexcusable rookie mistakes. He was held back a little by ultra-conservative play calling in the second half. Look for him to possibly be turned loose on Sunday.

New Orleans’ defense has given up some points and yards, but the Saints are near the top of the NFL in sacks with 10. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and his entire unit will be licking their chops at the chance to slam fresh meat to the turf.

In the National Football League, anything can happen. The Jaguars have play keep-away from Brees and the Saints offense by running the ball and controlling the clock. On top of that, they must create turnovers.

The Saints are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 versus a team with a losing record while the Jags are 2-9 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Early weather reports call for a sunny afternoon in Jacksonville with teams reaching the mid-70s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/28/2011 07:00 PM

Baltimore Ravens Look To Ground New York Jets

The Baltimore defense is allowing just 13.3 PPG, tops in the NFL.
New York Jets coach Rex Ryan gets a second shot at the team that spurned him when he visits the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.

NBC will broadcast at 8:20 p.m. (ET) from M&T Bank Stadium, where Baltimore looked extremely impressive in its only home game, 35-7 over Pittsburgh.

Baltimore is a 3 ½-point favorite at Don Best. The NFL betting total is just 41 ½-points despite both teams in the top-10 in scoring.

Ryan is the Ravens former defensive coordinator, but was passed over for the head coaching job for John Harbaugh in 2008. The Jets blew his first chance for revenge opening week last year, losing 10-9 at home after an awful performance by Mark Sanchez (74 passing yards).

The Jets (2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) also experienced defeat last week at Oakland, 34-24 as 3-point favorites. The Raiders ran over, around and through them for 234 rushing yards, with the exciting Darren McFadden (171) leading the way.

The fact that Ryan’s team got out-muscled was surprising, especially for a run ‘D’ that was third in the NFL last year (90.9 YPG). It allowed 176 total rushing yards in opening home wins over Dallas (27-24) and Jacksonville (32-3) this season.

New York has also gotten away from a ‘ground and pound’ rushing attack (148.4 YPG last year, ranked fourth). The number is 82 YPG this year (25th), with Shonn Greene not looking anything like an elite back.

Having center Nick Mangold (ankle) likely out again really hurts. He’s responsible for trying to control behemoth Haloti Ngata in the middle of the defense. Jets’ cornerback Antonio Cromartie (ribs) is listed as questionable.

Sanchez is averaging 37 pass attempts, compared to 31.7 last year. That’s dangerous against Baltimore with him suffering a slight broken nose last week and being sacked nine times already. The Ravens love to bring the blitz and their nine sacks are tied for seventh in the league.

The Ravens (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) have the same record as the Jets, but feel much better heading in after a 37-7 win at St. Louis as 4 ½-point favorites. Quarterback Joe Flacco had 389 passing yards, three TDs and no picks.

Flacco’s completion percentage of 54.1 is just 28th among signal callers. However, he has seven TDs versus two interceptions and played well in that huge Pittsburgh game (three TDs, no picks). He did struggle in the 26-13 loss at Tennessee in Week 2, but the whole team was bad and that game is looking like an aberration.

Baltimore has a very good running back in Ray Rice (231 yards) and even Ricky Williams (107 yards) has proven to be a solid backup. Each is averaging over five yards per carry. The Jets got burned by Oakland last week running outside the tackles and Rice has the speed to do the same if they don’t adjust.

Receiver Lee Evans (ankle) is doubtful in this game. Torrey Smith did a great job last week (152 yards) lining up opposite Anquan Boldin. The rookie could definitely be a concern if Cromartie if out.

Baltimore will not be afraid the throw the ball even with the Jets pass defense one of the best in the league. Flacco can make the throws to all parts of the field and the fourth-year player needs to keep winning these big home games. The team was 7-1 SU (3-5 ATS) at home last season.

The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Baltimore, scoring 28.3 PPG and allowing 13.3. The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the Jets, scoring 27.7 PPG and surrendering 20.3.

The ‘over’ is 16-4-1 in New York’s last 21 road games.

The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings versus the Jets, ‘covering’ as 1-point ‘dogs last season. They’re 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win of more than 14 points.

Weather should be very nice for football, clear and in the 50s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/28/2011 07:02 PM

Miami Dolphins Eye Upset At San Diego Chargers

Miami has picked up the win in four of its last five trips to San Diego.
The Miami Dolphins (0-3) and San Diego Chargers (2-1) will meet up Sunday afternoon in an AFC clash at Qualcomm Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

Oddsmakers had no choice but to send out San Diego as 9-point home favorites due to Miami remaining winless. Those odds have fallen two points, while the total has dropped from 46 ½ to 45.

Bettors were undoubtedly drawn to the Miami side due to the team’s 18-7-1 ATS record on the road, while San Diego has failed against the number in all three games this season.

Miami is also 0-2-1 ATS on the year, narrowly missing as 1-point road underdogs in a 17-16 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. The Dolphins finished that contest with an 89-yard statistical advantage.

Most of the team’s failure can be attributed to its 30th-ranked defense, allowing 415.7 yards a game, which is alarming due to returning 10 of 11 starters from a unit that finished sixth in the same category a year ago.

The pass defense has been abysmal in allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 311 yards a contest, which trails only Green Bay and New England. That’s a troubling statistic when facing one of the league’s best signal callers Sunday.

Miami has had success in this series dating back to the 2000 season, covering the number in five of six meetings, but failing in its last try in San Diego in a 23-13 loss as 5 ½-point road underdogs in 2009.

San Diego is certainly pleased to be 2-1 at this stage of the season, considering the team placed itself in a 2-5 hole a year ago. Quarterback Philip Rivers has completed 86-of-126 passes for 979 yards and four touchdowns, but has also been picked off six times. That’s a significant statistic when finding out that the former NC State star hasn’t thrown his sixth interception until Week 7 or 8 the last three years.

Rivers is still one of the better throwing options in the league and has tallied a 36-10 SU recover at Qualcomm Stadium when starting under center. The Chargers are also 23-7 ATS as a home favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points.

Injuries are starting to become a major concern for one of football’s most explosive offenses, with the biggest one surrounding perennial All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates. He continues to battle a sore right foot that has him listed as doubtful and may keep him out of the lineup for weeks to come.

After catching 79 passes for 1,157 yards and eight touchdowns in 2009, the nine-year pro has participated in just 12 of 19 games since the start of the 2010 campaign, coming away with 58 receptions and 856 yards over that span.

Bettors will find that the Chargers are 1-3 ATS versus AFC East competition over the last two-plus seasons, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those contests.

Weather forecasts suggest partly cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the low-70s in the San Diego area – perfect conditions for a football game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/28/2011 07:04 PM

Washington Redskins Face Winless St. Louis Rams

The Rams have covered their last four meetings with the Redskins.
The Washington Redskins take to the road for the second week in a row and hope for a better result when they visit the winless St. Louis Rams on Sunday.

The Redskins (2-1) are coming off an 18-16 loss at Dallas on Monday night after winning their first two games at home and will look to avenge a 30-16 road loss to the Rams (0-3) last season.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX.

Washington opened as a 1 ½-point road favorite according to the Don Best odds screen, but early action on St. Louis has moved the line to a pick ’em with the total at 43 ½.

The Redskins led the Cowboys for most of the game in the latest edition of Monday Night Football, but Dallas kicker Dan Bailey’s sixth field goal of the evening prevented them from staying unbeaten. Washington had taken a 16-9 lead with four minutes remaining in the third quarter when quarterback Rex Grossman found running back Tim Hightower on a 1-yard touchdown pass.

However, Bailey answered with three straight field goals, including the game-winner with 1:47 left.

Grossman played fairly well but could only get his team into the end zone once, which is more than the Cowboys accomplished. He threw for 250 yards and was picked off once, bringing his season total to five touchdowns and three interceptions. Hightower finished with just 41 yards rushing, and none of Washington’s running backs have broken the century mark in three games.

The Rams (0-3) are struggling offensively and defensively and have yet to score more than 16 points in a game this season. They got crushed 37-7 by Baltimore at home last week following a 28-16 road loss the previous Monday night.

St. Louis has regressed from last year when the team nearly made the playoffs, and second-year QB Sam Bradford has not looked like the same player he was last season. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year threw for 235 yards with one touchdown and one interception in last year’s meeting with the Redskins but has been held under 200 yards in two of the first three games.

Bradford has battled hand and toe injuries while the team’s running game has also failed to produce due to injuries to Steven Jackson (groin) and Carnell Williams (hamstring).

However, Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo has got to be more concerned with his defense, which is surrendering 32 points per game after being one of the team’s strengths last year. The ‘over’ is 2-0-1 in their games this season and has cashed in the past two meetings in St. Louis.

Sunday's weather in St. Louis looks just fine with clear skies and afternoon highs in the upper-60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/28/2011 07:07 PM

Week 4 Preview: 49ers at Eagles

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-1)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TBD

Michael Vick is questionable for a second straight week, this time because of a non-throwing hand injury, when the Eagles host the 49ers.

Vick is expected to start, but the Eagles will be moderately affected as their offense often includes some creative ball-handling by Vick. Vince Young is finally healed from his hamstring injury and will likely be the No. 2 quarterback. The 49ers have dropped five straight, SU and ATS, to Philadelphia, including a 27-24 home loss last October. San Francisco outgained the Eagles in that game, which Vick missed. QB Alex Smith accounted for three of San Francisco’s five turnovers. The Eagles are the superior team, and they should win big in their home stadium. The pick here is PHILADELPHIA to win and cover.

The FoxSheets shows a pair of trends siding with the Eagles.

Play On - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, in the first half of the season. (59-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +28.2 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game. (51-22 since 1983.) (69.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 2*).

San Francisco is currently in first place in the NFC West after posting a 13-8 win in Cincinnati last week. Despite the 2-1 record on the season, this offense has been atrocious. The Niners rank dead last in NFL total yardage (213.7 YPG), and star RB Frank Gore (2.5 YPC) has been the main culprit for lagging production. Gore’s status is uncertain after he suffered a sprained right ankle in Sunday’s win. QB Alex Smith hasn’t been a superstar either, with only 504 passing yards and two touchdowns in three games. Defensively, the team has played pretty well, especially against the run, where it ranks third in yardage (62.7 YPG) and second in yards per carry (2.9). Although, one of the game’s elite tacklers, S Donte Whitner, injured his hip in Sunday’s win and is questionable for this game.

During the five-game series win streak over the Niners, Philly has won by an average score of 35 to 18. The Eagles have rushed the ball extremely well this season, racking up 182 yards per game (2nd in NFL) on 5.4 YPC. The passing game is below average (227 YPG), but the team got some great news this week as starting WR Jeremy Maclin’s hamstring injury does not appear to be serious, and he should play Sunday. The one area that is really hurting Philadelphia is turnovers, as the team has six giveaways during its two-game slide. On defense, the team has 12 sacks already (2nd in NFL), including four from Cullen Jenkins, four from Jason Babin and three from Trent Cole. Despite the great QB pressure, the Eagles are third-worst in the league in rushing defense, surrendering 131 rushing YPG.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24202 Followers:32
09/29/2011 09:38 PM

Houston Texans Host Steelers In Key AFC Contest

A pair of 2-1 teams meet up at Reliant Stadium for one of the biggest Week 5 NFL betting showdowns, as the Houston Texans play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

This 1:00 p.m. (ET) Sunday kickoff will be the national broadcast on CBS, and those who don't have other local games there area is tied to should get this game.

The stakes in this one couldn't be much higher for this early in the season. Both the Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) and Texans (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) are tied atop their respective divisions, and both are expected to be in the playoffs this year. One team will feel a heck of a lot more comfortable at 3-1 through the first quarter of the season than at 2-2 and in second or third place in their own division.

The big news out of Houston is that last year's leading rusher, Arian Foster, is going to be back in the lineup after basically only playing a handful of series in the first three weeks with a hamstring injury.

Foster is built a lot like Baltimore Ravens' tailback, Ray Rice, who accounted for a whopping 149 total yards and two scores against the Steelers in a Week 1 loss.

History says that the Steelers' defense cannot be run upon, especially after allowing just a shade over 60 YPG last year to opposing runners. Though Pittsburgh has only allowed 263.3 total YPG this year, No. 2 in the league, we have to remember that this is the Houston offense it is going against, not that of the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts.

The Steelers might have some bigger problems this week, though. Houston's new 3-4 look has produced seven sacks in three games, and has caused a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The offensive line is paper thin for Pittsburgh, and there could be a lot of heat on Ben Roethlisberger all day long.

Big Ben has only thrown one touchdown pass in each of his first three games, which aren't numbers that we are used to seeing out of him. Roethlisberger does have 942 passing yards, but four picks and four lost fumbles aren't excusable and cannot be had in this game against Houston.

The Texans failed their first major defensive test last week at the New Orleans Saints, allowing Drew Brees to throw for 370 yards and three TDs in a 40-33 loss. Roethlisberger doesn't have the offensive weapons to to put up those kind of numbers in all likelihood, and he is going to need some help from his ground game.

Rashard Mendenhall just hasn't gotten going this year, though. His longest run is only 23 yards, and he is only averaging 3.0 YPC.

These teams have only met three times in the brief history of the Texans. Pittsburgh has gone 2-1 SU and ATS in those three games, including a 38-17 pummeling the last time that these two played in 2008.

The Texans have loved Week 4 for whatever reason, going 8-1 ATS over the last nine seasons in this week.

Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog, and is 6-1 ATS the last seven road games against teams with a winning home record.

Houston opened up the week favored by a field goal, but that line has since risen to four. The 'total' has stayed relatively level at 45 ½.

Sunny with temps in the mid-to-upper 80s and a mild humidity level – by Houston standards, at least – is the current forecast. Despite what should be fairly comfortable conditions outside, expect the roof to be closed.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: