cnotes Posts:25185 Followers:33
10/03/2011 06:27 PM

NFL Week 4 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

Blackened crow was on the Sunday menu.

It didn’t taste good. Grinding bits of char like sand between my teeth.

I’ve been preparing to eat my words for three weeks now. I’ve finally stomached the fact that Cam Newton is going to be a good NFL quarterback.

He didn’t win this week but played well against a great defense. Newton looks like he’s been in this league for years.

When Warren Moon said this kid would be good, I told every ear that would listen he was full of shit. I thought Newton wasn’t a good enough passer, the next Vince Young, at best.

Now I’m a believer, my apologies Mr. Moonlight.

Newton probably can’t comprehend the three laws of motion, but he’s got an arm as big as Isaac’s brain. And he can beat pressure with mobility.

Carolina isn’t going to win every week, and the kid is going to have his share of rookie mistakes, but this team will compete.

Will oddsmakers continue to undervalue the Panthers? I’m aware that two of their three covers came from garbage touchdowns but that just shows they fight to the end. The kitties host the big bad Saints next Sunday. I’m praying that spread heads north.

THE GOOD…

I’ve always held Jeff Fisher in the highest tier of NFL coaches. When Bud Adams let him walk I thought the Titans were in for an era of futility. But the 88-year-old has been watching this game a lot longer than I have.

Tennessee isn’t going to miss Kenny Britt as much as I thought it would. “Bad Back” Hasselbeck has been one of the most efficient passers this season. Six different guys had catches Sunday.

The Titans defense is legit. This team will be in the division race with Houston until the end.

Calvin Johnson is already a better receiver than Cris Carter ever was. Perhaps jealousy is keeping Carter from admitting Johnson is one of the five best wideouts in the game.

He’s not just in the top five; he’s the king of the freakin’ mountain. Not even Optimus Ryan could find a way to slow Megatron this week.

Save for a few quarterbacks, Johnson is the best player in the NFL. It doesn’t matter how much the Lions get down, as long as No. 81 is on the field they’ll always have a chance.

THE BAD…

Justin Tuck is a liar. That stubby-fingered flake nearly cost me another win.

I like betting on quotes and Tuck said if he got on the team plane he was playing. When he boarded the sky bus destined for the Desert I assumed he would keep his word.

Flipped when I found out he wasn’t playing. Tuck is a game-changer and I’m convinced New York would’ve won by double digits if he’s on the field. Twice I’ve backed the G-Men and twice he hasn’t played.

And I’m happy we won’t be hearing about Tom Coughlin crucifying Victor Cruz. Sorry for the bad beat Cardinals backers but he did give himself up.

Can you believe Colt McCoy sent 61 balls through the air Sunday? The West Coast Offense is designed to chuck it around but Pat Shurmur didn’t draw it up like that.

The doo-doo Browns were a trendy preseason pick but we can’t forget this team has an unproven quarterback and is adjusting to new systems on both sides of the ball.

The WCO is all about short, horizontal passing but the Browns are taking it to a new level. They simply don’t have the quarterback or playmakers to take necessary occasional downfield shots, or comeback from big deficits.

THE UGLY…

Big Ben probably feels a lot like Mike Vick. And it looks like he’ll be on the weekly injury report, just like Vick.

As soon as Willie Colon-oscopy went down this team was in trouble. Rookie Marcus Gilbert is not a viable replacement. And when Doug Legursky and Jonathan Scott don’t play, you’re going to see Roethlisberger with a walking boot and crutches.

This offensive line is useless. It can’t protect or run block. Fourteen sacks surrendered and no back has even sniffed the century mark.

Warren Sapp has talked about how the Steel Curtain defense has fallen. Too old, too slow, too vulnerable, done. That fat flab may actually know what he’s talking about.

Pitt will have nine defensive starters over 30 by season’s end. Excluding the Seattle game, the Steelers have been gashed on the ground. Would you believe 150 yards per? Troy Polamalu and crew have certainly lost a step. They only have one takeaway all year.

After the nail-biter in Indy, Mike Tomlin said good teams don’t have that kind of performance. The writing’s on the wall coach.

THE LEANS…

Bills +3 vs. Eagles - Philly has no right to be a road fave against a 3-1 team. Odds still inflated.

Packers -4 at Falcons - Hotlanta is frozen over. I envision last year’s playoff game Part Deux.

NFL Record: 10-3-2, $700

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25185 Followers:33
10/03/2011 06:29 PM

NFL


Monday, October 3

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Colts at Buccaneers: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 40.5)

THE STORY: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t had a home game on Monday Night Football in eight years. The then-reigning Super Bowl champions played in prime time twice that season, and one of the games was among the most memorable in franchise history – for all the wrong reasons. Tampa Bay gets a chance to avenge possibly the most stunning comeback in league annals when they host the winless Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The good news for Tampa Bay this time around is the absence of four-time NFL MVP Peyton Manning, the primary reason why Indianapolis has a zero in the win column.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-3): Indianapolis turned in an inspired defensive effort last week, twice erasing deficits before losing to Pittsburgh 23-20 on a last-second field goal. With Manning sidelined for perhaps the season with a neck injury, the Colts’ offense has shown little juice, ranking 14th in the AFC with 46 points. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis sparked a unit that harassed Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger into three turnovers. Curtis Painter may get the start at QB after Kerry Collins was knocked out of the game with concussion-like symptoms. One bright spot was RB Joseph Addai, who had 86 yards on 17 carries.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-1): Tampa Bay rebounded from a season-opening loss to join New Orleans atop the NFC South. The Buccaneers churned out a 16-13 victory over Atlanta last week in workmanlike fashion, holding the ball nearly 36 minutes while their defense registered four sacks and forced three turnovers. LeGarrette Blount had 81 yards on 24 carries, but the passing game continued to struggle, with QB Josh Freeman throwing for 180 yards and two interceptions. WR Mike Williams is averaging a mere 8.9 yards on 10 catches – down nearly six yards from last season. CB Ronde Barber had an interception and fumble recovery last week.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. In October 2003, the Colts shocked the Bucs with a 38-35 overtime victory, erasing a 35-14 lead with three touchdowns in the last four minutes of regulation. It was the first time in league history a team won after trailing by at least 21 points with four minutes to play.

2. Indianapolis has gone 9-1 in its last 10 games on MNF. Of course, that was with No. 18 under center.

3. With Manning sidelined, Barber is the league’s active leader with 186 consecutive games started. He’s the only player in NFL history with 40 interceptions and 25 sacks.

TRENDS:

The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with winning records and 7-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games. Of course, those all were with Peyton Manning behind center.

The Bucs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

On the bad side for Buc backers, the club is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games.

The over is 4-1-1 in Tampa Bay's last six home games and 16-7-1 in the club's last 24 games against teams with losing records.

LINE MOVEMENT

Not much to report here. Tampa Bay opened as a 10-point favorite and stayed there pretty much all week. The total has dropped from the opening number of 42. Most shops are now down to 40.5.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers 16, Colts 13. Tampa Bay will ride the running of Blount and its defense to an ugly victory while viewers are left to wonder if “Two and a Half Men” is the story of Indianapolis’ QB situation.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25185 Followers:33
10/03/2011 06:30 PM

NFL


Monday, October 3

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Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tale of the tape
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Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 40.5)

Offense

There isn’t any real bright side to Indianapolis’ offense. The Colts rank 29th in total offense, putting up 254 yards per game and average only 164 passing yards without Peyton Manning. Curtis Painter will start this week after coming in for Kerry Collins (concussion) during Week 3’s loss to Pittsburgh. He managed 5.5 yards per passing attempt, completing five of his 11 throws. Veteran running back Joseph Addai is churning out 4.8 yards per carry, but the running game is picking up only 90 yards per contest on the ground.

Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman threw a pair of interceptions last week against Atlanta and now has four picks to go against only two touchdowns through three games. He’s completing 67.9 percent of his passes at 6.4 yards per attempt and spreads the ball around with four receivers pulling in at least 10 catches to date. LaGarrette Blount leads a rushing game that’s also struggling. He puts up four yards per run but the team averages only 92 yards per game.

Edge: Buccaneers

Defense

The Colts give up 28 points per game and are having a tough time getting to the quarterback with only five sacks through their three games. They do force some turnovers with three interceptions and seven forced fumbles, but give up far too many big plays and can’t stop anybody on third down. Indy ranks last in the league allowing its opponents to convert 50 percent of their third down attempts.

Tampa Bay gives up 384 total yards and 20 points per game. The Bucs have only two interceptions but have managed to force five fumbles, recovering three of those, and have six quarterback sacks. Last week they were successful in stacking the box and dropping their defensive backs into coverage. They held Atlanta to just 30 yards and will likely look to do the same to Indianapolis.

Edge: Buccaneers

Special teams

Adam Vinatieri has hit six of seven field goal attempts and kickoff specialist Pat McAffee has nine touchbacks in 13 kicks this season, but that’s where the good news ends about Indy’s special teams. The Colts allow 42 yards per kick return and 23.1 yards per punt return.

Connor Barth has hit all six of his field goals to start the year and Tampa Bay puts up 32 yards per kickoff return and could give Indy some problems. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers allow only 15 yards per kickoff return and only 5.9 yards per punt return.

Edge: Tampa Bay

Word on the street

"I think we did some good things. Obviously, it wasn't enough. We don't care (about) second-place prizes or playing good for a half or three quarters. We didn't play good enough to win." – Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney on last week’s 23-20 loss to Pittsburgh. Indy bettors cashed in with the club set as a bit 10.5-point underdog.

"Two turnovers in the red zone, that's just unacceptable. That's something you really don't anticipate doing or expect to do at anytime. And we talk about it all the time. That's something that's just not in our chemistry as Buccaneers quarterbacks – to throw picks in the red zone like that. It's unacceptable and I have to find a way to get that corrected.'' – Josh Freeman about his turnover problems.

Final score prediction

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, Indianapolis Colts 6

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: