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Cnotes Week # 4 NFL Best Bets !

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On 09/26/2011 07:12 PM in NFL
Week 4 Openers

September 26, 2011

Three weeks into the NFL season has given us many surprises, including the unlikely 3-0 starts by both Detroit and Buffalo, who were last-place teams in 2010. On the flip side, the Eagles, Falcons, and Bears - all playoff squads from last season - have stumbled to a 1-2 start out of the gate.

Each week we compare the opening numbers from the M Resort in July to this past Sunday's openers for Week 4 of the NFL. Some of the following lines will be shocking considering the state of several of these teams after three weeks.

Vikings at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST

July opener: Kansas City -5
Sunday opener: Minnesota -1

It's never easy to start an NFL preview with a pair of winless teams going at it, but Kansas City and Minnesota have started 0-3 in very different ways. The Vikings squandered a pair of substantial leads in home losses to the Buccaneers and Lions, while the Chiefs finally lost a game by less than five touchdowns in Week 3 at San Diego.

Minnesota has scored a grand total of six points in the second half/overtime in three games, even though the Vikings are 2-1 ATS. The Chiefs are already without Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry due to knee injuries, but Kansas City cashed as 14-point underdogs in a 20-17 defeat to San Diego for its first ATS win of the season. Since starting 5-1 ATS last season, Todd Haley's team is just 5-9 ATS the previous 14 contests.

Panthers at Bears - 1:00 PM EST

July opener: Chicago -12
Sunday opener: Chicago -6 ½

The Bears shocked many people with a resounding opening week thumping of the Falcons, but Chicago has crashed back to Earth following a pair of double-digit setbacks to New Orleans and Green Bay. The Panthers invade Soldier Field after finally breaking through the win column in a 16-10 triumph over the Jaguars, cashing as 3 ½-point favorites.

The number released in July seemed fair since Cam Newton was going to struggle, assume he would start for the Panthers. However, the top pick from Auburn ranks third in the NFL in passing yards (1,012), while already eclipsing the 420-yard mark in two games. Now, the Bears' defense has to worry about Newton after ranking 26th in the league in pass defense through the first three weeks. Meanwhile, Chicago is second-to-last in the NFL in rushing following a 13-yard effort against the Packers.

Bills at Bengals - 1:00 PM EST

July opener: Cincinnati -4 ½
Sunday opener: Buffalo -3

The Bills became the first team to ever overcome consecutive 18+ point deficits and pick up victories, fresh off Sunday's shocker over New England. Buffalo goes for its fourth straight win against a Cincinnati team that fell short in an ugly 13-8 home loss to San Francisco. The Bengals haven't been a great home favorite under Marvin Lewis by compiling a 2-12 ATS record since 2008, but as a home 'dog is a different story.

Thankfully, the line has swung so great that the Bengals are getting points in this contest. Cincinnati owns a 9-3 ATS mark as a home 'dog since 2008, including outright wins over Baltimore and San Diego last season. Surprisingly, Buffalo is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite in its last four opportunities, including a 31-14 blowout of St. Louis is 2008, moving the Bills to 4-0 that season.

Giants at Cardinals - 4:15 PM EST

July opener: New York -6
Sunday opener: New York -1 ½

The Giants return to the site of their dramatic Super Bowl XLII triumph over the undefeated Patriots as New York battles Arizona on Sunday. Tom Coughlin's club knocked around the Eagles in a 29-16 bashing in Week 3, easily cashing as nine-point underdogs. The Cardinals return to Glendale after a disappointing 13-10 defeat at Seattle as three-point 'chalk,' dropping Arizona to 1-2.

Arizona rallied for a win in its only home contest against Carolina, 28-21, but the Cards have allowed the sixth-most yards (397/game) through three weeks. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards have put together a 9-3 ATS record as a home 'dog, even though one of those losses came to the Giants in 2008. New York is a very profitable 16-9 ATS since Coughlin took over when the Giants are listed as a road favorite, despite an opening week loss at Washington.

Colts at Buccaneers - 8:30 PM EST (Monday)

July opener: Indianapolis -1 ½
Sunday opener: Tampa Bay -10

We'll be seeing the Colts on this list quite frequently throughout the season with Peyton Manning out. Indianapolis put up a valiant effort in a 23-20 home defeat to Pittsburgh, but the Colts managed a cover as double-digit home 'dogs. The Bucs have bounced back nicely following a Week 1 loss to Detroit with solid victories over Minnesota and Atlanta. Now, Raheem Morris' club is a double-digit favorite for the first time in his tenure as head coach of Tampa Bay, while trying to improve on a 4-12-1 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium.

Teams laying at least 10 points through the first two weeks of the season haven't been very successful against the number by covering just once in four tries. History is tough to judge with Indianapolis since Manning is out, but the Colts don't bounce back well following a loss by three points or less with a 1-7 ATS mark since 2006.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/26/2011 07:14 PM
Unbeaten Buffalo Bills At Cincinnati Bengals

There is only one undefeated team left standing in the AFC standings after just three weeks of play, that being the Buffalo Bills. The biggest upstarts in the league are going to be back in NFL betting action in Week 4 when they head to Paul Brown Stadium to tango with the Cincinnati Bengals.

This 1:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff on Sunday can be seen regionally on CBS.

It's truly hard to imagine that Ryan Fitzpatrick is leading the No. 1 ranked scoring offense in the game. Dropping 41 points on the Kansas City Chiefs was a solid looking result, as was scoring 38 against the Oakland Raiders.

However, the true litmus test for Buffalo came against the New England Patriots, a test that was passed with flying colors with a 34-31 win in Week 3.

Fitzpatrick has thrown for 841 yards and nine TDs in just three games, averages of 280.3 YPG and 3.0 TDs per game. Last year, the Harvard grad had 3,000 yards and 23 TDs in 13 games, averages of 230.8 YPG and 1.8 TDs per game.

This year's difference maker has proven to be Scott Chandler, who already has nine grabs, four of which have gone for TDs in the red zone on the campaign. Though Lee Evans is no longer a part of the receiving corps, both Steve Johnson and David Nelson have 20 receptions, and they have 489 yards and four TDs between them.

On the ground, things are just as efficient. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are combining for over 130 YPG on the campaign, and they are averaging an absolutely amazing 6.75 YPC.

That being said, the Bills havee problems on the defensive side of the ball. Yes, this team intercepted the great Tom Brady four times last week, but it also has allowed 66 points in its last two games and is surrendering 387.7 YPG to opponents over three weeks.

The hope for the Bengals is that the Buffalo defense doesn't get all that much better from last week to this week.

Cincinnati knows that it will have growing pains over these next several weeks as rookie Andy Dalton tries to get accustomed to his surroundings as a starting quarterback. The former TCU Horned Frog had a tough one against the San Francisco 49ers last week, going 17-of-32 for 157 yards with no scores and two interceptions in a brutal 13-8 loss.

The Bengals didn't have a single play of more than 22 yards on the day against a San Francisco squad that struggled mightily two weeks ago against the Dallas Cowboys on big plays.

The good news for head coach Marvin Lewis is that his defense does rank No. 3 in the league at 276.3 YPG. The Bengals rank in the Top 10 in virtually every major defensive category, though we have to remember that games against the 49ers, Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns do not exactlymake for a tough schedule.

Playing Buffalo is generally pretty bad news for Bengals fans. In fact, the last time they won a game in this series was back in the 1989 playoffs when the Ickey Shuffle was the craze in the Queen City. Since that point, Cincinnati is a dreadful 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS against the Bills.

Sunday night's opening NFL lines features the Bills favored by three points even though they are on the road. The 'total' opened up at 44 ½.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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  • 09/28/2011 11:15 PM
    WONDER WHY THE LINE IS ONLY 3? LOL
    You’ve got to get to the stage in life where going for it is more important than winning or losing.
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09/26/2011 07:16 PM
Chicago Bears Host Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

After a promising start to the year, the Chicago Bears will try to end a two-game skid this Sunday when they host the Carolina Panthers at Soldier Field. The Bears are coming off consecutive double-digit losses against the past two Super Bowl champions and looking to re-gain the form that helped them beat Atlanta 30-12 in the season opener.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. Chicago opened as a 6 ½-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 44.

The Bears looked overwhelmed again at times in a 27-17 home loss to Green Bay last Sunday after falling 30-13 at New Orleans the week before. Chicago offensive coordinator Mike Martz had vowed to balance the offense more in favor of the running game, but falling behind 14-0 to the Packers early in the second quarter forced him to abandon it for the second straight week.

Running back Matt Forte was limited to just two yards on nine carries for the Bears as they ran the ball only 11 times for the second time in as many games. They finished with 13 rushing yards, including 11 by quarterback Jay Cutler, which is the team’s lowest total since 1960.

Cutler was sacked three times by Green Bay for 24 yards and also threw two interceptions while completing 21 of 37 passes for 302 yards and two touchdowns. He has topped the 300-yard mark twice in the first three games.

Meanwhile, Carolina QB Cam Newton saw his streak of 400+ yard passing games come to an end in a 16-10 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. However, the rookie still led the Panthers (1-2) to their first victory in sloppy conditions at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

Heavy downpours prevented the team from putting together much of an air attack, as Newton threw for 158 yards and found former Chicago tight end Greg Olsen for the game-winning touchdown with 4:20 remaining.

Olsen, traded to Carolina prior to the season, ended up with seven catches for 57 yards. He was one of Cutler’s favorite targets and will have revenge on his mind along with Panthers head coach Ron Rivera, who was the Bears defensive coordinator for three years, including 2006 when they advanced to Super Bowl XLI.

Rivera was let go by Chicago after the team lost to Indianapolis in that game, 29-17.

The Bears won last year’s meeting 23-6 at Carolina behind Forte, who rushed for a season-high 166 yards on 22 carries and scored two touchdowns in the first quarter. Backup QB Todd Collins was under center because Cutler had suffered a concussion against the New York Giants the week before.

Collins had one of the worst games ever for a winning signal caller with 32 yards passing, no touchdowns and four interceptions. But Panthers QBs Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore did not fare much better, totaling 96 passing yards and three picks between them.

The early weather forecast for Sunday in Chicago calls for a high temperature of 64 degrees under mostly sunny skies.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/27/2011 07:09 PM
Detroit Lions Small 'Dogs At Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys don’t want to rely on a third straight comeback when they host the undefeated Detroit Lions on Sunday.

FOX will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Cowboys Stadium, the palatial estate of owner Jerry Jones.

Dallas opened as 3-point favorites at Don Best, but it was quickly bet down to two. The total has held steady at 47 points.

The Cowboys (2-1 straight up and 1-1-1 against the spread) are coming off an exciting 18-16 MNF win over Washington as 3 ½-point home favorites. They’re now tied with Washington and the NY Giants for the NFC East lead, with preseason division favorite Philly one game back.

Quarterback Tony Romo was the goat in the Week 1 loss at the Jets (27-24), but has engineered late fourth-quarter comebacks at San Francisco (27-24 OT) and then Washington. Dallas was held out of the end-zone last game with six field goals, but the win is all that matters.

The 34 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 44-point total. The ‘over’ was 2-0 in Dallas first two games and 9-0 in its previous nine home games.

Romo has a 95.8 quarterback rating (ranked ninth) and his toughness cant’ be questioned even if his decision-making can. His broken rib needed a second pain injection before kickoff, but there’s no doubt he’ll play this week, currently listed as probable.

Dallas would love to get receiver Miles Austin (hamstring) back this week, but he’s doubtful. Cornerbacks Terence Newman (concussion) and Mike Jenkins (shoulder) were both injured last game, but returned.

Losing Austin is a big blow as there’s no consistent receiver opposite Dez Bryant. Kevin Ogletree was a disaster with a fumble and a touchdown drop. Felix Jones helped bail the ‘Boys out with 115 rushing yards on just 14 carries. He reportedly re-injured his shoulder, but is probable like Romo.

Dallas is also having problems with new center Phil Costa and the shotgun snaps. That has to be cleaned up quickly going against Ndamukong Suh and the ferocious Detroit defensive line that could get a boost with the return of rookie Nick Fairley (foot, questionable).

The Lions (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) are battling the Buffalo Bills for the surprise team in football. Solid improvement was expected from the men from Motown, but they’re already halfway to their six wins of last year and 3-0 for the first time since Billy Sims and company in 1980.

Detroit had solid wins at Tampa Bay (27-20) and home to Kansas City (48-3), but found itself down 20-0 at halftime at winless Minnesota last week.

Fortunately, Minnesota has made blowing huge leads a habit this year and Detroit came roaring back for a 26-23 OT win, ‘pushing’ the 3-point spread. Quarterback Matthew Stafford had 378 passing yards, two TDs and no interceptions and is third in the league in quarterback rating (110.7).

Stafford is only in his third season and has played just 16 games due to injuries. It’s that inexperience that caused him problems against Minnesota’s zone blitzes in the first half. Look for innovative Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to show him a lot of different looks.

Stafford is spreading the ball around with Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew all with 140+ receiving yards. The running game is struggling at 2.8 yards per carry (ranked 30th). Jahvid Best (143 rushing yards) is one of the culprits, but he’s at least doing a good job receiving out of the backfield.

Detroit ranks sixth in the NFL in total defense (301 YPG). Stopping the rushing of Jones is key Sunday and then the defense can pin its ear backs against the banged-up Romo and try to improve on its eight turnovers (four interceptions and four picks).

The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Detroit this year, scoring 33.7 PPG and allowing 15.3 PPG. No total has been above 45 points.

Detroit is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games and 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight overall.

These teams met last year on Nov .21 with Dallas winning 35-19 as 5-point home favorites. That was an immortal quarterback battle of Shaun Hill versus Jon Kitna with both starters injured. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.

Weather should be warm and sunny in the 80s, with closing the retractable roof always an option.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/27/2011 07:11 PM
Tom Brady, Patriots Next Up For Oakland Raiders

The New England Patriots play their second tough road opponent in a row when they visit the improved Oakland Raiders on Sunday.

CBS will broadcast at 4:15 p.m. (ET) from Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, with its ominous ‘Black Hole’ section.

New England opened as 6-point favorites on the Don Best odds screen, but it’s already down to 4 ½-points. The NFL betting total has increased from 52 to 53 ½ points.

The Patriots (2-1 straight up and against the spread) lost 34-31 at the Bills last week as 7-point favorites, ending a 15-game winning streaking against them. Buffalo is now in first place in the AFC East, one game ahead of New England and the Jets.

Losing to Buffalo is tough enough, but how the Patriots lost was really frustrating. First, they blew a 21-0 second quarter lead. Second, Tom Brady threw four picks for the first time since 2006. Finally, the Bills got a break when their touchdown with under two minutes left was reversed and put at the 1-yard line. They then ran down the clock before the winning field goal.

The 65 combined points easily went ‘over’ the 53 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 for New England this year, scoring 34.7 PPG (tied for second in the league) and allowing 26.3 PPG (ranked 27th). The ‘over’ is an incredible 19-3 in the team’s last 22 games overall.

Brady has thrown for an NFL record 1,327 yards in three games, but his 44.3 average attempts leave him open to interceptions and also taking shots from an Oakland defense that has 10 sacks (tied for fourth). Last year, Brady averaged 30.8 attempts and had four total picks.

Defensively, New England just can’t stop the pass, last in the NFL at 377 YPG. Three key members of the Pats secondary – Patrick Chung (thumb), Ras-I Dowling (hip) and Kyle Arrington (concussion) – are all listed as questionable in addition to defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth (back).

The Patriots haven’t had much recent experience bouncing back from losses, going 14-2 SU in the regular season last year. However, they’re 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a defeat.

Note New England played much better in its other road game this year, 38-24 at Miami as 7-point favorites in Week 1.

The Raiders (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) are tied with San Diego for first place in the AFC West. They could easily be undefeated if not for blowing a 21-3 halftime lead at Buffalo in Week 2.

Oakland rebounded nicely last week, beating a very good Jets team 34-24 as 3-point home underdogs. The Bay Area Bunch outrushed the Jets (234-100) and battered and bruised quarterback Mark Sanchez with four sacks and one broken nose.

The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Oakland this year with no total higher than 42 ½-points.

Coach Hue Jackson has done a nice job in his first season. His team is very physical on both sides of the ball. Darren McFadden leads the NFL in rushing (393 yards) and should play after being listed as probable (groin injury).

The Raiders will pound the ball again this week. Their 26th-ranked passing attack (190 YPG) with quarterback Jason Campbell just isn’t built to throw it 35 times, even with New England’s woeful pass defense.

Oakland’s pass defense isn’t great either at 289.7 YPG (ranked 28th). Brady will certainly throw the ball often, but coach Bill Belichick needs to get more touches in the running game for BenJarvus Green-Ellis and even promising rookie Stevan Ridley.

This is the Raiders second home game this year and this stadium is becoming a tough place to visit (5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven).

The ‘over’ is 5-0 in Oakland’s last five home games, scoring 27.8 PPG and allowing 26.2 PPG.

These teams last met in 2008 with New England winning 49-26 as 6 ½-point road favorites. Of course, Oakland fans still hate the Patriots for the 2002 ‘Snow Bowl’ playoff game when Brady and New England survived with the infamous ‘Tuck Rule’ call.

Weather should be fine, partly cloudy and in the 60s.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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  • 09/28/2011 11:24 PM
    OAKLAND HAS BEEN DOING OK THROWING THE BALL, NOT GREAT, even though they started this yr with their 3 starting rec's out..murphy. ford, and heyward...heywards back, dont think ford or murphy will be...if the raiders were at full strength in the receiving dept, look out!! with that running game, and all those rec's, if the o-line gives him time lookout nfl..speed, speed ,speed..i think the raiders will get to brady..if ya ever noticed the raiders very rarely blitz..i dont know why either, they have a great front line, maybe the best in the nfl...if they get pressure on brady, he will be in trouble, last week it was interceptions that beat them, and he didnt get sacked..if they get to him, even without sacking him it will change the game...the over under is 55 now, and i love overs, but this game for some reason i think could stay under...i would love to see the raiders throw alot...and with boss back it will help even more..the raiders are the play here...if the raiders dont have more then 1 turnover, and if penaltys dont kill them lookout..in the buffalo game, on 2 drives in the 2nd half, on 3rd and long, the bills threw incomplete passes, but there were penaltys, def holding twice that gave them 1st downs, or else they would have punted, and the raiders win the game..also 2nd qtr, after buff made it 21-10 the raiders were driving at the buff 43 when mcfadden fumbled..big momentum changer that was gl all 151
    You’ve got to get to the stage in life where going for it is more important than winning or losing.
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09/27/2011 07:12 PM
Tennessee Titans Tackle Browns In Cleveland

Neither the Tennessee Titans nor the Cleveland Browns were expected to make a whole heck of a lot of noise this year in NFL betting action. They've both won two games in a row after disappointing Week 1 losses, though, and now they meet in Cleveland for a Week 4 encounter.

Kickoff from the Dawg Pound is set for 1:00 (ET) on Sunday afternoon, with regional TV coverage set for CBS.

Pop quiz, hot shot! How many teams in the AFC have allowed fewer than 18.0 PPG this year?

Answer: Only two. The Baltimore Ravens clearly have the top defense in this conference, having allowed just 40 points on the season, but the Titans aren't all that far behind, conceding just 43 total points.

This unit has only allowed 261.0 YPG this season, ranking No. 1 in the league. The Titans also rank No.2 in passing yards allowed (172.0 YPG), and their 14.3 PPG is good enough for second in the NFL.

Tennessee is the only team to allow fewer than 20 points in all three of its games thus far on the young campaign.

The offense is most certainly getting there. After a suspect game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, Matt Hasselbeck has fired back with two straight huge games with over 300 passing yards to lead his team.

The only major problem that he is going to face is that Kenny Britt, the team's leading receiver with 289 yards and three TDs, is out for the rest of the season with an ACL tear suffered in last week's win against the Denver Broncos.

The injury to Britt is going to leave a massive hole at receiver for Hasselbeck, and the running game is going to have to pick up the slack. It's tough to believe that Chris Johnson has a grand total of 98 yards on the season as a rusher, and as a result, the ground game ranks dead last in the league at 51.7 YPG.

Things haven't always been pretty for the Browns this year, as all three of their games have classified as generally ugly. However, head coach Pat Shumur won't mind, as wins are wins, especially when his team is playing in the brutal AFC North.

Strep throat kept Peyton Hillis out of the fold last week, but we would like to think that he is going to be back in this one. Montario Hardesty stepped in against the Miami Dolphins, but it was the defense that truly stepped up to win the game in a 17-16 decision.

We don't tend to think of this Cleveland club as one that plays fantastic defense, but allowing 316.0 YPG is a great start to the campaign. What we do have to remember though, is that the Browns haven't played all that tough of a schedule yet, as none of the Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals should be making the playoffs this year.

These two teams have met nine times since the revival of the Browns. The Titans have marks of 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in those games, including posting a 28-9 victory in the most recent matchup in 2008.

The last time that Cleveland hosted the Titans was in 2005, a 20-14 win for the Browns.

Early NFL betting action has drifted towards the 'over.' Of the games that were released on Sunday night, this was the only one with a 'total' in the 30s. The oddsmakers lined it at 37, but the 'total' has since been pushed to 37½.

Cleveland is a slender one-point favorite at home.
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09/27/2011 07:14 PM
Chiefs, Vikings Collide With 0-3 Records

The Minnesota Vikings (0-3) and Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) are sure to gain some media coverage in Week 4 as the only NFL game between winless foes this weekend.

Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) at Arrowhead Stadium and television coverage will be handled by FOX.

Oddsmakers sent out Minnesota as 1 ½-point road favorites and some shops have seen that number rise a half-point. The total has been bet up a half-point to 40.

Minnesota has had every opportunity to come away with a victory in the first three weeks, leading all three games by double-digits at halftime, only to see each one slip away.

The latest collapse came last week versus the upstart Detroit Lions, blowing a 20-point lead, dropping a 26-23 contest as 3-point home underdogs.

Much of the blame has to be assigned to a coaching staff in calling just five running plays for star Adrian Peterson. It’s a puzzling trend that has surfaced the entire season, as he’s carried the ball 36 times in the first 30 minutes, only to get the ball 22 times after the break.

Calling No. 28’s number has to be a priority in hostile territory this week, as Kansas City ranks 28th in the league versus the run. That’s an alarming statistic in this matchup due to the Chiefs having played three teams that don’t feature the run.

Bettors will find that the Vikings are 3-5 ATS in October the last two years and the ‘over’ is 7-1 in those contests.

Kansas City has fallen to Buffalo (41-7), Detroit (48-3) and San Diego (20-17) to start the season, and out-gained by a total of 419 combined yards in those games. The offense has also managed to score just 27 points in the opening three weeks.

Quarterback Matt Cassel managed to have his best game of the season last week versus the Chargers, registering his first 100-plus passer rating, completing 17-of-24 passes for 176 yards and two touchdowns with a single interception.

It’s still important to note that the Chiefs’ passing game ranks next-to-last in the league in averaging just 130.7 yards a game.

The running game is still feeling the affects of losing Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn left ACL, as a four-man backfield combined to gain 80 rushing yards on 26 carries. Kansas City is averaging 113.3 yards per game on the ground, dramatically lower from the 164.2-yard average a year ago.

Handicappers will find that the Chiefs are 8-4 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, while the ‘under’ is 6-5 in those games.

With both teams nearly out of any possibility of making the playoffs, a lot of the attention inside Arrowhead Stadium will be focused on Vikings defensive end Jared Allen, who will face his old team in the regular season for the first time since being traded in 2008.

Weather forecasts suggest a perfect day for football in Kansas City, with game-time highs in the low-70s and sunny skies.
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09/27/2011 07:18 PM
NFL Notebook - Week 4

September 27, 2011

It used to be nearly automatic to go under an NFL total above 50.

Not anymore. Due to increased scoring, it's now perilous to buck an over/under in this range.

Through Week 3 there were three totals above 51. All three went over.

The Chargers-Patriots in Week 2 had a total of 53 ½ points. There were 56 points scored. Then, this past week, New England-Buffalo had a 55-point total and Houston-New Orleans had a 51 ½-point number. The Patriots and Bills combined for 65 points, while there was a staggering 73 points scored in the Saints' 40-33 victory against the Texans.

It may be psychologically difficult to go over an NFL total above 50, but when the Patriots and Saints are involved it's either play over or avoid the total.

One of the many strengths of Vince Lombardi was making halftime adjustments. The Lombardi Packers almost owned the third quarter. The opposite of Lombardi is the Vikings' Leslie Frazier.

Minnesota has had double-digit halftime leads in all three of its games. I don't know what Frazier said during these halftimes, but Minnesota ended up losing every game compiling just 15 second-half first downs and six points.

If the Vikings lose to Kansas City Sunday, it officially will be rebuilding time in Minnesota. It also should mark the end of Frazier's head coaching career.

Jay Cutler has been taking some criticism for his negative body language on the field. Cutler, though, is only human. Since coming to the Bears in 2009, Cutler has been sacked 101 times, the highest three-year figure in the NFL.

Chances are you're not doing well in your fantasy football league if you own Chris Johnson, Frank Gore or DeAngelo Williams. Gore is averaging a puny 2.5 yards per carry - and that's better than Johnson (2.1 yards) and Williams (2.4).

It's not only ironic, but perhaps telling that all three of these runners signed new big-money contracts before this season. Williams may not even be the best running back on Carolina, which has Jonathan Stewart.

Michael Vick is the most exciting player in the NFL, but he still does dumb things such as ripping NFL officials for not protecting quarterbacks. Since 2005 the league has gone too far to actually protect quarterbacks.

After Tom Brady was injured in 2008, the league toughened up its rules on low hits. Vick, Tony Romo, Andy Dalton and Kerry Collins have been the only quarterbacks to get hurt this season and none of their injuries has so far caused them to miss the next game.

Chan Gaily is my early nomination for coach of the year. The Buffalo Bills are undefeated despite having major talent deficiencies. Gaily has gotten the most of his heady, but weak-armed journeyman-type quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick by putting together an effective spread offense. This keeps the Bills' below-average offensive line from being exposed while playing to Fitzpatrick's strength.
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09/27/2011 07:22 PM
Inside the Numbers - Week 4

September 27, 2011

Sunday, Oct 2 (1:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

DAL at DET: 10-4 ATS L14 as underdog
DET: 9-3 ATS L12 vs non-div opponent
DAL: 1-6 ATS L7 as home favorite
DAL: 5-2 ATS L7 vs Detroit

JAX at NOR: 3-8 ATS L11 as road favorite
NOR: 5-1 'over' L6 on road
JAX: 0-8 ATS L8 at home off loss
JAX: 5-1 ATS L6 as non-div home underdog

PHI at SF: 7-4-1 ATS L12 as underdog
SF: 0-4-1 ATS L5 off win
PHI: 3-6 ATS L9 as home favorite
PHI: 6-2 ATS L8 off double-digit loss

STL at WSH: 11-3-1 ATS L15 as road underdog
WSH: 7-2 'under' L9 on road
STL: 1-6 ATS L7
STL: 4-1 'over' L5 at home

CLE at TEN: 0-7 ATS L7 off home win
TEN: 4-8 ATS L12
CLE: 2-7 ATS L9 as home favorite
CLE: 3-8 ATS L11

CIN at BUF: 4-0 ATS L4 vs AFC North
BUF: 6-2 'over' L8 on road
CIN: 9-3 ATS L12 as home underdog
CIN: 5-3 'over' L8 at home

KC at MIN: 3-6-1 ATS L10 on road
MIN: 3-5 ATS L8 vs AFC
KC: 6-3 'under' L9
KC: 6-1 ATS L7 vs NFC

CHI at CAR: 2-6-1 ATS L9 on road
CAR: 1-8-1 ATS L10 dog of 7 pts or less
CHI: 6-2 ATS L8 home off loss
CHI: 2-8 ATS L10 2nd of BB home games

HOU at PIT: 4-8 ATS L12 road vs non-div
PIT: 7-2 'over' L9
HOU: 1-6 ATS L7 home vs non-div
HOU: 8-4 'over' L12




Sunday, Oct 2 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
SEA at ATL: 7-3 ATS L10 as road favorite
ATL: 11-1 ATS L12 off loss
SEA: 7-4 ATS L11 as home underdog
SEA: 2-7 ATS L9 off win

ARZ at NYG: 16-9 ATS L25 as road favorite
NYG: 4-1 ATS L5 on road off win
ARZ: 9-3 ATS L12 as home underdog
ARZ: 8-3 ATS L11 as underdog off loss





Sunday, Oct 2 (4:15 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

SDG at MIA: 15-5 ATS L20 as road underdog
MIA: 6-2 ATS L8 in 2nd of BB road games
SDG: 6-3 ATS L9 at home vs non-div
SDG: 7-1 'under' L8 at home

GNB at DEN: 1-8 ATS L9 off ATS win
DEN: 3-7 ATS L10 road vs NFC
GNB: 7-2 ATS L9 vs NFC
GNB: 9-3-1 ATS L13 home

OAK at NE: 12-5 ATS L17 off loss
NE: 8-3 ATS L11 road vs non-div
OAK: 2-5 ATS L7 home off win
OAK: 4-8 ATS L12 vs non-div





Sunday, Oct 2 (8:25 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

BAL at NYJ: 10-6 ATS as dog under Ryan
NYJ: 3-0 'under' L3 vs Baltimore
BAL: 9-4 ATS L13 home off win
BAL: 11-4 ATS L15 home vs non-div





Monday, Oct 3 (8:35 p.m. ET)

Matchup Inside the Numbers

TAM at IND: 1-7 ATS L8 off loss of 3 pts or less
IND: 5-2-1 ATS L8 vs NFC
TAM: 4-12-1 ATS L17 at home
TAM: 0-5-1 ATS L6 at home vs AFC



Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/27/2011 07:24 PM
Week 4 Preview: Detroit at Dallas

DETROIT LIONS (3-0)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2, Total: 47

The ailing Cowboys will have their hands full with a young, physical Detroit defense when the teams meet Sunday in Big D.

When they played in Dallas last November, the Lions beat up on QB Jon Kitna and held the Cowboys to 265 yards of offense. The Cowboys won in large part to a fluke play: Brian McCann took a punt that the Lions were tipping back into the field of play and returned it 97 yards for a TD. With RB Felix Jones and WR Miles Austin (among others) ailing, Dallas will likely struggle to take advantage of Detroit’s suspect secondary. And with a horrendous group of cornerbacks of its own, Dallas will struggle against the Lions’ resurgent passing game. Not only have the Lions won eight straight games dating back to last season, but they are 14-3-2 ATS (82.4%) since the start of 2010. The pick here is for DETROIT to remain unbeaten on the season.

The FoxSheets provide this three-star trend supporting the Lions.

DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (85.7%, +9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.3, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Detroit pulled off a stellar comeback last Sunday in Minnesota, as the team erased a 20-0 halftime deficit and prevailed in overtime. This marked the franchise’s largest second-half comeback. The Lions are now 3-0 for the first time since 1980. QB Matthew Stafford is off to a flying start this year. He threw for 378 yards in the victory over the Vikings, giving him 977 yards, 9 TD and just 2 INT in three games this season. WR Calvin Johnson has six of those TD grabs, with two coming in each game. Detroit’s running game has been weak this season, with just 235 yards on 84 carries (2.8 YPC). Top RB Jahvid Best suffered a bruised thigh last Sunday, but should be able to start against Dallas.

Dallas QB Tony Romo wasn’t great in Monday’s 18-16 field-goal fest win over Washington, but still led his team to the victory. Romo, who was questionable because of cracked ribs and a punctured lung, finished 22-of-36 for 255 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He did a good job of spreading the wealth, as five receivers caught at least three passes and nobody had more than Dez Bryant’s 63 yards. Besides K Dan Bailey, who had all of the team’s 18 points, Felix Jones was the offensive star for Dallas with 115 rushing yards on 8.2 yards per carry, and three catches for 40 more yards. Jones, who has been playing despite a separated shoulder, appeared to have re-injured that shoulder on Monday night. His status is questionable for the matchup with Detroit. CB Mike Jenkins also re-injured his shoulder on Monday, but was able to return to the game. CB Terence Newman suffered what appears to be a concussion in the fourth quarter of the Redskins game, and his status is uncertain for Sunday. DE Jason Hatcher (strained calf) is questionable.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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