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Cnotes CFB Week # 5 Best Bets 09/29-10/01 !

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On 09/26/2011 06:50 PM in NCAA Football
Sharps knock around Books

September 26, 2011

The fourth week of college football action produced another evenly balanced mix of favorites and underdogs getting the money. The favorites went 24-23 on the week with 10 of the underdogs winning outright. While the public were hit and miss on the games, with LSU beating West Virginia 47-21 as their biggest conquest, it was the Sharps who made the strongest impression of the day.
Their top six plays went 5-1 with Tulsa (+32), Missouri (+22), Ohio State (-15), Wyoming (+24 ½ ), Florida (-17 ½) and Nevada (+20 ½). The Tulsa and Florida moves came early in the week, but the other four came in a major power sweep through every sports book in Las Vegas on Thursday. The brilliance of their Thursday attack was how they helped set the market number by seeding money on the other side in a few of those games with early wagering at the Wynn Resort and similar activity off-shore.

The Wynn opened Texas Tech as a 15 ½-point favorite against Nevada last Sunday night. After a few low limit wagers on Tech moved the spread up the ladder, the number had quickly settled at -20. That was the market price most sports books opened with on Monday morning.

On Thursday morning the number that had been driven to as high as -21 at the South Point and -20 ½ at the Las Vegas Hilton and Wynn with Tech money. The public loved Texas Tech and the risk on the game was mounting on that side.

Then the onslaught came as their plan of attack came to fruition at every sports book in the city at almost the same time with Nevada money. They took the plus-21, the 20 ½, the 19, the 18 until they milked the well dry all the way down to 16 with the Wynn almost being right back where they started.

In the Wynn’s case, they had a strong number that was obviously correct with the Sharps, but were driven off of it with low-limit wagers. Even if the Wynn had taken full limits, it’s still a relatively cheap price to pay for the sharp group to pay when they can force the city into a desired number and then have so many different outs to get their action in at.

In the end, Texas Tech escaped with a 35-34 win over Nevada.

The activity on the Texas Tech side may sound un-ethical, but there is no rule against it. It’s not like there is a Federal Trade Commission that governs this type of betting activity. This Sharp group has the muscle and cash flow to make it possible.

Now the ball is in the sports books court for them to try and detect this type of manipulation. Whether that means holding true to their own numbers and not falling in line so much with the market price, who knows, but you can believe that most sports books are already coming up with their counter-offensive on the matter.

Wyoming was a popular Sharp play at +24 ½ all the way to +21 ½ against Nebraska. Even though the majority of the Wyoming wagers didn’t get the money because Nebraska won 38-14, the sports books had a negative decision because of the public loving Nebraska. Bu the time the public put Nebraska in all their parlays on game day, they got the best of the numbers because of the spread being driven so low.

The sports books escaped with a decent Saturday despite the Sharps doing so well. Pittsburgh covering against Notre Dame was the book's biggest win on the day. The late combination of LSU and Oregon covering was very popular with the public and continued a trend that has been seen all four weeks; the sports books can’t seem to win the late games.

One Step Forward, Two Giant Leaps Backward

One week after drastically changing impressions of our beloved UNLV football Rebels following their dominating win over Hawaii as 18-point underdogs, they came back to earth. In fact, losing 41-16 at home to Southern Utah -- from the Great West conference -- Saturday night puts them on an entirely new planet.

If there was ever a let-down game that not many uncovered, it was this one. The Rebels were 10-point favorites on the extra added games that many sports books offer on Friday evenings. I guess it’s back to the drawing board.

Upsets of the Week

In games that were offered in the regular Nevada rotation, there were two double-digit underdogs that won outright. Florida International was a 17-point home favorite and ended up losing 36-31 to UL-Lafayette.

Kansas State was a 12-point underdog at Miami and pulled off the 28-24 win giving Miami, a team many thought could run the table this year, a 1-2 start to their season.

As big as those upsets were, I still found myself more fascinated with Temple drilling Maryland 38-7 as a nine-point road underdog. Temple is now 3-0 against-the-spread after destroying Akron (41-3), hanging with Penn State in a 14-10 loss and then the Maryland game.

Temple continued to do what they do best against Maryland, which is run. They went for 285 yards and held possession for 41 minutes. It’ll be interesting to see this week how the contrasting styles of Temple fare against the pass-attack of Toledo, a team that comes off tough losses from Syracuse, Boise State and Ohio State. Temple is a 7-point favorite in this one.

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09/26/2011 06:55 PM
College football odds: Week 5 opening line report

Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema didn’t beat around the bush in his postgame press conference Saturday. He was quick to let everyone know that he and his well-balanced bunch of Badgers have been waiting for Nebraska since the season started.

With no disrespect to UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois and South Dakota, which all ended up in Badgers’ victories, Wisconsin has had Week 5 highlighted for a good long while.

For on Saturday night, the Badgers and Cornhuskers, two Top 10 programs, will collide in Madison, Wis., in Nebraska’s first game as a member of the Big Ten.

So, you can understand that this is a big deal to Bielema. And he’s not afraid to admit it.

“I’m very excited for this week to finally get here. You guys might’ve heard, but we’re playing Nebraska, so there are some fun things to prepare this week,” he said. “It’s a really exciting time for us because you put in all this hard work and effort into getting through the nonconference schedule, playing as clean as you can and get into a Big Ten race. There’s also the opportunity to play at home and at night. It’ll be a great scene, a great environment for college football.”

And it’s a game that will be heavily bet, for sure.

“Nebraska will always be well respected by the books,” Pete Korner, of Esportclub, LLC, in Las Vegas told Covers.com. “Even when they’re not that good of a team, they draw big money every week. And with this Nebraska team being pretty good, that only adds to it.”

But Korner also realizes the power and precision with which Wisconsin runs things, especially at home. As such, he made the Badgers 7-point favorites.

“It’ll be interesting and entertaining, and it should be high scoring,” Korner said. “Wisconsin is a favorite, but not an overwhelming one. We’ll see how much Nebraska money we get with this line.”

And with that, let’s take a look at some of next week’s other marquee games:

South Florida (+1.5) at Pittsburgh

“South Florida is a good team, very athletic and has a chance to show something to the nation here,” Korner said. “We have respect for Pittsburgh, but the reason they’re the favorites is because of the home field. That’s it. South Florida can definitely win this one.”

Alabama (-3.5) at Florida

“We wanted to make sure we got it over the key number 3, so that’s why we have the half there,” Korner said. “Alabama is just so good right now, we could have gone higher. We were all on Alabama when we first looked at this one. But we’ll see where the line goes.”

Auburn (+10.5) at South Carolina

“Not expecting a close game. We could have gone all the way up to 14.5 on this one for South Carolina,” Korner said. “But that was a little too high for a tough SEC game. Still, South Carolina is better all around.”

Kentucky (+27) at LSU

“We don’t like Kentucky at all,” Korner said. “But we’re hoping they can slow the game down a little. LSU looks very good these days.”

Arkansas (+3) vs. Texas A&M (Arlington, Texas)

“We didn’t have much of an opinion here. These are not great teams, and there’s not a lot there,” Korner said. “No home field, but it is in Texas, so we gave a slight edge to A&M, but not much.”

Michigan State (+3) at Ohio State

“In Big Ten play now, and we expect a really close one here. Both teams are very even,” Korner said. “Purely a home field line here. Ohio State has done nothing for us, and they are just not the kind of team we’re used to seeing there. So, they’ll have to prove something to us.”

Clemson (+7) at Virginia Tech

“Should be a really good, entertaining ACC game with a total in the 50s,” Korner said. “Virginia Tech is tough at home, but Clemson can definitely win here. They’re showing some great signs and may have what it takes.”

Notre Dame (-17) at Purdue

“Not a close one here. The Notre Dame offense should be able dominate, start to finish,” Korner said. “We are expecting an absolute blowout. Notre Dame is at a point in the year where they need to pile up wins, and this is a good place and time to get another one.”

UCLA (+22) at Stanford

“Good chance for Stanford to have a blowout,” Korner said. “We could have easily put this up to 24, as we really expect Stanford to have no mercy here against a team they really don’t like much.”
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09/26/2011 06:58 PM
Top 5 NCAAF Trends

NEB
WISC WISC are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

UCLA
STAN STAN are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

OREST
ARZST Under is 8-0-1 in OREST last 9 games overall.

BUFF
TENN Over is 8-0 in TENN last 8 non-conference games.

NEB
WISC WISC are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
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09/26/2011 07:00 PM
Texas A&M Favored Over Arkansas Razorbacks

It's not exactly the big showdown it could've been, but Saturday's battle at Cowboys Stadium between the Texas A&M Aggies and Arkansas Razorbacks remains a big piece in the overall BCS puzzle.

If nothing else, it's going to have a real Southeastern Conference feel to it when the Aggies take the field in Arlington, TX against the Hogs. Former rivals from their old Southwest Conference days, the two appear to be future conference rivals again after the SEC formally accepted Texas A&M into its bosom on Sunday.

Now we'll see if the Aggies wind up looking like boobs. Texas A&M will have to "negotiate...an exit fee with the Big 12" ESPN reported on Sunday (Sept. 25). After that the Aggies will officially join the SEC next summer. How the lawyers haggle through that remains to be seen.

What should be seen in the game is Texas A&M eager to make a good first impression on an old/future rival, and Arkansas wanting to give the Aggies a true 'Southern welcome' into the SEC family.

It's the third year running for this series that has seen Arkansas, 11th in the latest Don Best Linemakers poll, take the previous two. Texas A&M, ranked 10th, opened as a 3-point favorite in the contest, with some early movement sending that number down to 2½ at some college football betting shops.

Kenny White set his initial total for the game at 61.

Mike Sherman probably doesn't care that much which conference his team is playing in. One would guess, however, that he's happy the odds his Aggies will have to face Oklahoma State and Arkansas back-to-back again are slim. The Cowboys and Razorbacks have sent the Ags to defeat in consecutive weeks the past two seasons, and A&M is coming off a very depressing loss to Oklahoma St.

Trust me, I've sat through my share of Aggie losses. You can often feel the train coming down the track long before you actually hear it.

When the Aggies had the 20-3 lead over the Cowboys going into the third quarter last Saturday, the tracks were already shaking so violently that the Aggie defense couldn't get off the field. It was like that old vibrating football game from the 60s when my guys would only spin in circles and the other team would just shake up and down the field.

The outcome at Kyle Field was a repeat of last year's meeting in so many ways, starting with Mike Gundy's group outscoring A&M 21-0 in the third quarter of the last two clashes.

Texas A&M blew it, plain and simple. You don't cough up 17-point leads over conference opponents as 4½-5 point home favorites and expect to have success regardless of your conference affiliation.

Arkansas is the lesser team – on paper – coming into this game, but the Razorbacks have one big advantage. They weren't expected to go into Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama last week, and therefore aren't coming off the emotional letdown A&M suffered.

The Crimson Tide toyed with the Hogs in the first quarter before cutting loose on the way to a 38-14 triumph as 11-point favorites.

Bobby Petrino's offense was choked off by an Alabama defense that limited the Razorbacks to 226 total yards. Sixty-three of those yards came on one scoring drive in the first quarter. Starting QB Tyler Wilson combined with Brandon Mitchell to complete 24 of their 40 passes, each tossing a pick, one of those returned for a 'Bama TD in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, Arkansas never got a thing going on the ground where the Hogs gained just 17 yards on 19 carries.

Texas A&M dominated both sides of the ball in the first half last week before being dominated in the final two quarters. All four turnovers came in the final 30 minutes, and more than half of Aggies' offense in the second half came on one 80-yard drive in the fourth quarter when the Cowboys played a bit soft after taking a 10-point lead.

Petrino no doubt has watched the pressure that A&M's defense put on Brandon Weeden and Oklahoma State in the first half, and the Razorbacks will be out to copy the Cowboys' second-half performance that negated that pressure.

The Aggies simply have to play 60 full minutes if they want to have a chance against Jerry Jones' alma mater.

Kickoff is set for noon (ET) with ESPN providing the telecast. Sunny skies and an afternoon high of 88 is the current forecast.
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09/26/2011 07:02 PM
BYU Cougars Seek Revenge Vs Utah State Aggies

The BYU Cougars play host in the prime-time Friday night matchup for the second straight week when they take on the Utah State Aggies.

The Don Best odds screen currently lists BYU as a 7½-point home favorite. ESPN will pick up the broadcast for Friday’s only game, which is set to kick off at 8:00 p.m. (ET).

Last season, this in-state rivalry was kicked up a few notches when Utah State beat BYU outright as a 4½-point underdog at home. Dating back to 1996, BYU had won nine straight over the Aggies, but last season Utah State finally broke their long losing streak.

BYU hopes to retake command of the series at home in LaVell Edwards Stadium.

Utah State (1-2) got some national attention after pushing defending champion Auburn to the limit as 23-point road 'dogs in their season opener. They followed that game up with a blowout win over FCS Weber State, and a tough loss in overtime to Colorado State last week.

Despite the loss, running back Robert Turbin had a big game, bringing his season total to eight rushing touchdowns over three games with a four-touchdown effort. Along with freshman dual-threat quarterback Chuckie Keeton, Turbin adds to a solid Aggies backfield.

BYU (2-2) bounced back nicely from an embarrassing 54-10 loss to Utah two weeks ago, beating Central Florida 24-17 last week as a 1½-point favorite. The win and cover brought the Cougars' spread record to 2-2.

The win also served as a bit of proof that the Utah blowout may have been a bit of an anomaly. In their three other games, the Cougars have surrendered 17 points or less, suggesting that they have a strong defensive unit.

They’ll need one against this Utah State attack that is averaging 42 points per game.

While BYU holds the clear 9-1 SU edge over the last 10 meetings between these two teams, Utah State has had a habit of covering spreads with a 5-1 ATS advantage over the last six games.

The location of this one may make all the difference though, as Utah State is an abysmal 2-18 SU in the last 20 games away from home. BYU has won six of its last seven games at home.

Four of the last five meetings between Utah State and BYU have gone ‘under’ the posted total. Check back for the total in this one a bit later in the week.

Both the total and the ATS result could simply come down to which team can control the tempo of the game. BYU would be more comfortable with a defensive game, while Utah State would be happier shooting out and lighting up the scoreboard.

Clear skies are in the Provo forecast for Friday when afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid-80s.
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09/26/2011 07:04 PM
Alabama Wrestles Florida Gators At The Swamp

The Alabama Crimson Tide play their second top-15 opponent in a row when they visit the resurgent Florida Gators on Saturday night.

This SEC slugfest between undefeated teams has Alabama as between four and 4 ½-point favorites with 45 for the opening total from Don Best's Kenny White. Kickoff from ‘The Swamp’ will be at 8:00 p.m. (ET) on CBS.

Alabama (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) had a big win last week over Arkansas, 38-14 as 11-point home favorites. The Don Best Linemakers Poll had Arkansas ranked No. 12 and 'Bama No. 1 before the game, with the latter still top-ranked in the new poll.

The Razorbacks came into that game averaging 517.3 yards of total offense, but only managed 226 off coach Nick Saban’s stingy unit. Holding quarterback Tyler Wilson (185 passing yards) and the aerial attack in check was the key.

Alabama’s quarterback AJ McCarron was a very efficient 15-of-20 last week for 200 yards. The sophomore wasn’t even a shoo-in to be the starter this year, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in three games and is doing well as a ‘game manager.’

The Tide are throwing for just 225.3 YPG, ranked 64th in the country. However, when they last won the national title in 2009, they threw for just 179.1 YPG with quarterback Greg McElroy, relying mostly on the running game and defense.

The rushing attack this year ranks 19th nationally (230.8 YPG), with Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy almost making everyone forget departed Heisman winner Mark Ingram. The duo is averaging a whopping 7.5 yards per carry.

The defense is also conjuring up memories of 2009, allowing a measly eight PPG (second nationally). That includes holding the Penn State Nittany Lions to 11 in their place. The one downside is that sophomore middle linebacker C.J. Mosley hurt his elbow last game and is questionable at best.

Lacy (toe) also got banged up last week, but should be fine according to Saban.

The Crimson Tide’s only road game this year was the 27-11 win at Penn State as 10-point favorites. They’re 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games overall.

The Gators (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS) have rebounded nicely after a disappointing 8-5 SU (7-6 ATS) season last year. They’re ranked No. 12 at Don Best after last week’s 48-10 blowout win at Kentucky as 17 ½-point favorites.

Coach Will Muschamp has taken the reigns from the legendary Urban Meyer and met the big expectations so far. However, this will be the first ranked opponent and Gators fans are expecting a victory.

Quarterback John Brantley was the other big question mark this season. He struggled last year with nine TDs versus 10 interceptions and a 116.4 quarterback rating. The senior has four TDs against two picks this year with a 148.1 rating.

New offensive coordinator Charlie Weis may have been a failure as Notre Dame’s head coach, but his resume at developing quarterbacks can’t be questioned at the college or pro level. The new pro-style attack has led to a solid 8.7 yards per attempt for Brantley (17th among signal callers).

Running back Chris Rainey has been the big gun both rushing (411 yards) and receiving (214 yards). No other player has more than 93 receiving yards. Alabama will try to cut off his underneath routes, but that will be much harder if the outstanding cover linebacker (Mosley) is out.

Jeff Demps is another speedster at running back, amassing 320 yards at 9.4 per carry. He also has nine receptions for 70 yards. The Crimson Tide need to shut those guys down and force Brantley and the receivers to beat them downfield.

On defense, Florida is top-5 nationally in points (9.0 PPG), run defense (56.5 YPG) and total defense (231.8 YPG). That’s impressive with just three returning starters. Slowing down Richardson and the running attack would put the first real pressure on McCarron.

Florida’s one significant injury listed is sophomore tight end Jordan Reed (hamstring). He’s missed the last two games and is questionable for this matchup.

Alabama had decisive wins the last two years (31-6, 32-13) and is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings overall. Florida did win (28-13 as 16 ½-point favorites) the last game in Gainesville in 2006. That was with Chris Leak at quarterback.

Early weather predictions are clear and in the 70s.
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09/26/2011 07:05 PM
Pitt Panthers Home 'Dogs To South Florida Bulls

The South Florida Bulls (4-0) and Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) open up their 2011 Big East schedules and handicappers will likely examine their numbers closely against a common opponent during non-conference play.

Kickoff from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) on Thursday and will be nationally televised on ESPN.

Both teams have played Notre Dame and came away with different results. South Florida opened the season with a 23-20 win as 10 ½-point road underdogs, while Pittsburgh dropped a 15-12 home decision this past week when getting a touchdown.

Bettors have certainly taken those results into consideration, moving the Bulls from a pick’ em in this contest to solid 2 ½-point road favorites.

South Florida just slipped into the top 30 of this week's Don Best Linemakers Poll at No. 28 after producing a perfect mark through four weeks. Offensively, the Bulls have produced 122 points over the past two games, which has resulted in scoring over 50 points in back-to-back games for the first time in school history.

The running game did most of the damage in a 52-24 win over the UTEP Miners as 30-point home favorites last week, gaining 373 yards, which fell four yards short of setting a single-game record for the program.

Quarterback B.J. Daniels shouldn’t be forgotten in this matchup, throwing for 1,071 passing yards in the first four weeks of the season. It’s likely that those numbers will not be reached in playing Thursday’s conference opponent, as South Florida has been outscored by a 58-24 margin in the last two meetings in this series.

The Bulls will be favored for the first time in the last three meetings against Pitt. South Florida failed to cover the last two contests when playing as underdogs of three and 6 ½ points.

Pittsburgh is looking to snap a two-game losing streak and will be making its 17th Thursday night ESPN appearance, posting a 1-4 record in the last five such contests. The Panthers lead this series, 5-3, splitting four games when playing as host.

First-year head coach Todd Graham took over a young program in the Steel City that had only two seniors starting offensively, both on the offensive line. That group lost guard Chris Jacobson for the season last week with a knee injury.

Despite the injury, Pittsburgh is likely to still feature its running game, as junior Ray Graham leads the conference and ranks eight nationally in rushing for 127 yards a contest.

For bettors looking for an early score, the program has yet to allow a single point in the first 15 minutes of action this season, outscoring opponents by a 29-0 margin in the first quarter.

Expect the Panthers defense to try and disrupt Daniels in the passing game, as the unit is averaging 2.75 sacks per game, which is tied for 23rd in the nation. That's slightly above last year’s pace of registering 2.62 sacks a contest.

The program has shown great ability in bouncing back, coming into this prime-time event with a 10-1 ATS mark after suffering a straight-up loss.

Early weather forecasts suggest showery conditions and temperatures in the upper-50s in the Pittsburgh area.
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09/26/2011 10:19 PM
1st line i seen on s.fla was s.fla-2 hit it woulda liked +1.5 and the over 51 in that game too gl 151
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09/27/2011 06:27 PM
Pittsburgh looks to hand USF its first loss Thursday

SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS (4-0)
at PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (2-2)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: South Florida -3

No. 16 South Florida brings its high-powered offense north to face a desperate Pitt team eager to stop a two-game losing skid.

The Panthers are a surprising home underdog against a team they have beaten three straight times, holding the Bulls to 15.0 PPG in those contests. Bulls QB B.J. Daniels has 5.0 YPA, 0 TD and 3 INT in his career in the series, while Pitt QB Tino Sunseri has 8.0 YPA, 2 TD and 0 INT against USF. In the past three-plus seasons, South Florida is 2-6 ATS as a road favorite, while Pittsburgh is 10-3 ATS after a SU defeat (5-1 ATS versus Big East). The Bulls have been very fortunate this year with a +8 turnover margin and allowed 110 more yards to common opponent Notre Dame than the Panthers did last week. All of these factors point to a PITTSBURGH victory.

This FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Panthers:

Todd Graham is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Graham 35.9, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 1*).

South Florida ranks in the top-10 in the nation in both scoring (45.5 PPG) and total offense (523 YPG). Bulls QB B.J. Daniels has 748 total yards and eight total TD in the past two weeks, but the last time he played in Pittsburgh, he was 4-for-8 for 54 yards and two interceptions. The emergence of RB Darrell Scott over the past three weeks will be a key to this game. Scott has 413 total yards and six touchdowns in these three contests. Defensively, the Bulls have been pretty sound, but giving up 24 points to a weak UTEP team last week was nothing to feel good about. They rank 15th in the nation in rushing defense (82 YPG), but are a subpar 75th against the pass (231 YPG). USF has done a great job creating turnovers with 13 takeaways in four games.

The Panthers have won the past three meetings with USF including a 41-14 pounding when they last met in Pittsburgh. Ray Graham rushed for 88 yards on 11 carries that day, as the Panthers outgained the Bulls 486 to 212. Although Graham, who is currently sixth in the nation in rushing yards (508), was limited to 44 yards on 10 carries in last year’s meeting, a 17-10 Pittsburgh win.

The Panthers could certainly be undefeated heading into Thursday night, but they have blown two straight fourth-quarter leads, including a 17-point advantage in a loss at Iowa two weeks ago. Pitt has allowed 19 sacks (tied for most in FBS), which is a big reason Sunseri has four interceptions in just 82 pass attempts. Last year he was only picked off nine times in 346 attempts. The Panthers also need to improve on the defensive side of the ball. They have allowed 412 YPG, which ranks 97th in the country. This includes the sixth-worst pass defense among FBS schools (306 YPG).

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09/27/2011 06:29 PM
USU looks to snap 15-game losing skid at BYU

UTAH STATE AGGIES (1-2)
at BYU COUGARS (2-2)

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: BYU -8.5

BYU looks to get the upper hand back in the series with Utah State when the in-state rivals meet for a Friday night game in Provo. The Aggies won last year’s meeting, but haven’t beaten the Cougars in their home stadium since 1978, a streak of 15 straight defeats.

BYU had beaten Utah State 10 straight times overall before the Aggies turned the tables and rolled the Cougars 31-16 last year. USU led 31-3 late in the third quarter of that victory and outgained BYU 242-65 on the ground. The Cougars offense has been atrocious this year, ranked 111th in yards (291 YPG) and 109th in points (16.0 PPG), but they have played four quality opponents (Ole Miss, Texas, Utah and UCF). Utah State could be 3-0, but blew double-digit leads at Auburn and at home to Colorado State. Since 2007, the Aggies are a stellar 18-7 ATS (72%) when tabbed as a road underdog. With a superior ground game, the pick here is UTAH STATE to cover.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the Aggies:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTAH ST) - after outgaining opp. by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. (56-25 since 1992.) (69.1%, +28.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Utah State has not beaten the Cougars in consecutive seasons since 1973 and 1974, but it has the rushing attack to pull off the upset Friday night. USU ranks fifth in the nation with 316 rushing YPG and its 6.2 yards-per-carry average ranks sixth in the nation. Junior Robert Turbin has 365 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in the first three games. The Aggies rolled up 281 yards on the ground last week against Colorado State, but lost the game in overtime because of four lost fumbles. Freshman QB Chuckie Keeton had two of those fumbles, but he has thrown the ball very well this year, completing 40-of-60 passes for 465 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Although the Aggies have allowed 31.3 PPG (97th in nation), they have the 12th-best total defense in the land, holding opponents to 270 YPG. If the offense stops turning the ball over, the points allowed should surely drop.

The Cougars aren’t known for running the football, but they gained 168 rushing YPG last year, which ranked 42nd in the nation. In 2011, they have the fifth-worst ground game in the land at 68 rushing YPG. Senior JJ Di Luigi averaged 71 rushing YPG on 5.2 YPC last year, but his numbers have plummeted to 41 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC in 2011. Sophomore QB Jake Heaps has also struggled against this season’s higher-quality opponents, completing just 55.6% of his passes and throwing 3 TD and 5 INT. In last year’s loss to USU, Heaps was 27-of-54 for 270 yards, but had no touchdowns and two picks. On the defensive side of the ball, BYU’s front four needs to do a better job getting into the backfield. The Cougars have just four total sacks in four games and rank 98th in the nation in Tackles For Loss (4.5 per game).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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