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Peterson has rushed for 409 yards in two meetings against the Packers. With Ponder's health issues and colder temps expected, everyone knows that the Vikings will dance with the guy who brought 'em and attempt to get Peterson another 200-yard day.
The Packers are not going to stop Peterson, but if they can contain him—hold him around 125 or 150 yards—this game is in the bag.
The Packers need to be able to protect Rodgers. It's almost a random occurrence when they decide to block for him, because they have some talented pass protectors, but they don't always seem prepared for what defensive lines throw at them.
With any modicum of protection, Rodgers becomes a dual-threat who will pressure the Vikings defense to stay closer to the line of scrimmage. That's when Greg Jennings, James Jones and Jordy Nelson do their best work. It's passing to set up the pass, and it's worked for the Packers this season.
The way these two teams have played this season this game could be decided by halftime. That is not to say it will be a blow out. Rather, both teams have units that are particularly built to play with a lead (Vikings offense, Packers defense) and it has shown this season. The Vikings are 9-1 when leading at halftime, while the Packers are 8-1 (lone loss was at Indianapolis). Those numbers are staggering, especially considering what the complements mean. The Vikings have come back once from a half time deficit all season, while the Packers have done it three times.
The biggest mismatch in favor of the Vikings’ defense exists in their talented edge rushers facing the young Packer tackles. Brian Robison, Jared Allen, and Everson Griffen combined for seven sacks, six hits, and 16 pressures in their two meetings with the Packers this season.