01/05/2013 01:56 PM
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Line moves: Texans opened at minus-5, currently minus-4.5
Books says: "One of the things I have done research on lately is the hot factor and how do you end the regular season. It's hot vs. not in this game. Cincy is 7-1 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. It's been against poor competition, but they did end hot. Houston has three of their last four and the wheels came off in that New England game. Even when they had something to play for, they couldn't win. So I looked back to 2007, when the Giants beat the Pats in the Super Bowl. They ended that year on a strong note and carried that momentum.
"The next year, the Cardinals won in Week 17 and covered; that carried them as double-digit dogs the next week. Same with the Steelers that year, whom the Cards met in the Super Bowl. The next year, the Seahawks win in the last week and then upset New Orleans in the playoffs. The Packers went to the Super Bowl that year as a hot team. In this game you have one team that has gotten hot and one team that has not. Cincy is 6-2 on the road. Houston has a chance; they are not a horrible team. I think right now teams have figured out how to slow down Houston's passing game. The points loom large here. If I had to predict, I would see small Houston win."