cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/01/2013 01:40 PM

Wiseguy Report: Sharp money on Super Bowl props

It’s no secret where the early money has come on the Super Bowl. At the opening number, San Francisco was as high as a 5.5-point favorite offshore, with mostly -5’s here in Las Vegas. But we’ve seen steady Baltimore money pour in since that time, driving the line down to the -3.5 or -4 range at every sportsbook in town; numbers that are currently attracting two-way action. I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff.

The early sharp money has also come in support of the under. One prominent offshore book opened the total at 52.5, and here in Vegas we saw several books open with a total of 50. Through the first week of Super Bowl betting, the under has been a popular wiseguy choice. The prevailing current offshore number is 47.5; here in Vegas we’re looking at mostly 48’s. I do expect the public to be squarely on the over Sunday – this total could easily get bet up a notch or two.

The Super Bowl is a unique animal when it comes to moneylines, particularly at the sportsbooks here in Vegas. We get a boatload of tourists in town for the big game, and those tourists have a strong tendency to bet the moneyline when supporting the underdog. Right now, San Francisco is in the -170 to -180 range on the moneyline, with the Ravens sitting at +150 to +160 in most locations.

But as we approach the game, we can expect the books to start adjusting the moneyline downwards to cope with the influx of Ravens ML bets. Don’t be shocked if at some point over the weekend, we see the 49ers in the -160 or -165 range, more typical of a three-point favorite, not a four-point favorite. Bettors who favor the 49ers are likely to pounce on that marketplace inefficiency in the 24-48 hours before kickoff.

For professional level bettors, wagering on the Super Bowl is not about side, total or moneyline bets – it’s about the props! Last year’s Patriots/Giants big game matchup generated just shy of $94 million in wagers at Nevada’s sportsbooks; a high percentage of which was on the proposition wagers. This year, sportsbooks are anticipating similar action.

The MGM/Mirage books were the first to open any proposition wagers to the betting public, hanging lines for all four quarters of the game. The sharps pounced all over MGM’s numbers, flipping the plus prices on the two sides. For example, San Francisco opened -0.5 (-125) for the first quarter. Within hours, the 49ers were -0.5 (+115).

Sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback, talking about the flurry of sharp money, right from the get-go. “They pounded us. It was amazing. It was just big bets – limit play, limit play, limit play at every property. Just like sharks.”

But it’s Jay Kornegay and his staff at the LVH who are the true pioneers; the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here. The LVH numbers were posted this past Thursday, and their 24-page prop booklet features more than 300 additional wagering opportunities.

I was at the Superbook when the numbers were posted, and frankly, most of the sharp bettors in the book seemed to be extremely disappointed in what they found. Here are quotes that I overheard from four different pro bettors who all wished to remain anonymous.

“These are the best prop numbers I’ve ever seen.” “I have more respect for the LVH today than I’ve ever had.” “Jeez, they used to just throw stuff up there; not anymore!” “My goal is to bet as little as possible at the LVH. I want to bet against the dum-dum books.”

But for all the whining and complaining about how good the LVH’s prop sheet was this year, those same pro bettors weren’t shy about laying down limit wagers. Here are some of the most popular wiseguy bets from the LVH this past weekend. If you’re looking for one prevailing theme on these wagers, it’s ‘less offense, more defense’. All props listed are at -110 both ways unless otherwise noted.

Bettors were bearish on Ray Rice. Rice’s rushing yards opened at 66.5, but that was bet down to 63.5. Rice’s rushing yards opened at +11.5 vs. Frank Gore’s rushing yards, bet up to +17.5. The Ravens team rushing total opened at over/under 108.5; bet down to 100.5 by Sunday night. Rice’s receiving yardage total was bet down from 29.5 to 25.5. His longest reception was bet down from 16.5 yards to 14.5 yards, with a +110 on the over. His longest rush was bet down from -14.5 to -13.5. The under 6.5 yards on Rice’s first reception now has a -140 price tag attached. Even Rice’s rushing attempts were bet down from 17.5 to 17.

But while bettors were fading Rice, they were supporting his backfield mate Bernard Pierce. Pierce’s rushing yards total got bet up from 29.5 to 32.5. His longest rush (O/U 9.5 yards) now has a -120 attached to the over and his total receiving yards went from over 1.5 (+140) to over 1.5 (-110).

The LVH wasn’t shy about moving numbers, not just the juice. Torrey Smith’s first reception got bet down from over/under 14.5 yards to O/U 13.5 yards, -120 on the under. Dennis Pitta’s first reception got bet down from 9.5 to 8.5 yards, and his total receiving yards were bet down from 47.5 to 45.5. Frank Gore’s receiving yards went from an opener of 19.5 to the current number of 14.5. LaMichael James' longest rush went from 13.5 to 11.5 with a +110 on the over, and his total rushing yards got bet down from 30.5 to 25.

Many of these bets were ‘arbitrage’ type wagers, as bettors took advantage of the variance in the posted numbers both here in town and offshore. And bettors took their time to read the fine print. LVH ‘total and assisted tackles’ numbers excluded sacks, but included special teams tackles; not the case at some other books. Perhaps that’s a big reason why Terrell Suggs O/U 4.5 tackles went from over -145 to over +110 at the LVH, without a corresponding move elsewhere.

The cross-sports props are always a thought provoking handicap, and we saw early money come on props involving hockey, soccer, basketball and golf.

Barcelona’s Lionel Messi goals opened at -0.5 (-125) vs. Frank Gore touchdowns, bet up to -170. The New York Islanders total points from John Tavares vs. the total number of scores in the last two minutes of the first half went from pk +100 to pk +150. Dwyane Wade points vs. the Raptors opened -4 (-110) vs. Colin Kaepernick completions. Kaepernick +4 now has a -140 price tag attached. Chris Bosh points vs. the largest lead of the Super Bowl went from -0.5 (-110) to -145. And Lee Westwood’s final round score at the Dubai Desert Classic vs Ray Rice rushing yards went from -3 to -5.5.

Let’s not forget special teams! Bettors didn’t touch 49ers kicker David Akers' total points (O/U 7.5), but Baltimore’s Justin Tucker went from 7.5 (U -120) to under -160. And money came on the over for both Sam Koch’s longest punt (56.5 yards, O -130) and Andy Lee’s longest punt (57.5, O -140)

Arguably the single biggest mover from the LVH openers came on the ‘total net yards for both teams’ prop. That number opened at 749.5 and got bet down again and again, currently sitting at 718.5 yards.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/01/2013 01:42 PM

Young QBs struggle in Super Bowl debuts

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will join some elite company when he takes the field for Super Bowl XLVII on Feb. 3.

The Nevada product will have been on this Earth for exactly 25 years and 91 days this Sunday when he takes his first Super Bowl snap and become the sixth-youngest QB to ever play in the big game.

Here’s a look at the five QBs ahead of Kaepernick on the list and how they performed in their respective Super Bowl debuts as youngsters. None of the previous QBs racked up anything close to mind-blowing numbers in their first appearances.

1) Dan Marino - 23 years 127 days

Marino and the Dolphins squared off against the San Francisco 49ers and Joe Montana in Super Bowl XIX. The Dolphins, who had 74 rushing attempts in the previous two weeks, ran the ball only eight times in this game. Marino finished with 29 completions out of 50 attempts for 318 yards, throwing one touchdown pass and two picks. The Dolphins fell 38-16 in what was Marino's only Super Bowl appearance.

2) Ben Roethlisberger - 23 years 340 days

The Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl XL 21-10 over the Seattle Seahawks on February 5, 2006. But Roethlisberger had one of the worst passing games of his career, completing just nine of 21 passes for 123 yards and two interceptions. His atrocious passer rating of 22.6 was the lowest in Super Bowl history by a winning quarterback. Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to win the Super Bowl, a record previously held by New England’s Tom Brady.

3) David Woodley - 24 years 97 days

The Dolphins had a tough matchup against the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVII. At the time, Woodley was the youngest Super Bowl starting quarterback in NFL history when he took the field. Despite starting the game well with a 76-yard touchdown pass to Jimmy Cefalo, Woodley and the entire offense struggled after that, going 0-for-8 passing in the second half. The Redskins won 27-17.

4) Tom Brady - 24 years 184 days

The Patriots were listed by Las Vegas oddsmakers as 14-point underdogs against the NFC champion St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. Brady was named MVP in the 20-17 Patriots victory while throwing for 145 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, becoming the then-youngest quarterback to ever win a Super Bowl.

5) Drew Bledsoe - 24 years 347 days

Bledsoe led the Patriots to Super Bowl XXXI, where they lost to the Green Bay Packers by a score of 35-21. Bledsoe completed 25 of 48 passes for 253 yards, with two touchdowns and four interceptions in the loss.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/01/2013 01:44 PM

Can bettors take advantage of Super Bowl ref?

A referee can have a drastic impact on any NFL game, and normally the officiating crew for the Super Bowl every year consists of battle-tested veterans that are accustomed to the pressure of the Big Game.

Jerome Boger, who has never previously officiated a conference championship game or Super Bowl, is the referee assigned to work Super Bowl XLVII. That decision by the NFL is stirring a huge controversy ahead of Sunday’s showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens.

Boger, a referee with seven years of experience and two as a line judge, got the nod over veteran referees Ed Hochuli and others with significant playoff and Super Bowl experience, causing many to question the league’s rating system for its officials. But that isn’t what should concern bettors Sunday.

Boger’s crews are notoriously known for cracking down on holding penalties, calling a league-high 18 holding penalties against defensive linemen since 2008. That is about triple the average and six more than Ed Hochuli’s posse. In fact, Boger’s crews have called an alarming 151 offensive holding penalties from 2010-2012. The Ravens were flagged for 18 offensive holding penalties (ninth in the league), while the 49ers were close behind with 17 (12th) this season.

Although Boger loves to blow the whistle on holding, he tends to be more lenient in other aspects of the game. He called an average of 11.42 penalties over 12 games this season - one less than the league average. Boger issued an average of 97.25 penalty yards per game – 8.2 yards below the combined league mark. He was also recently criticized for being too lenient in the next-to-last game of the season between the Raiders and Panthers. Carolina QB Cam Newton bumped Boger while disputing a call. Newton was penalized but not ejected because Boger said he didn't feel the bump was enough to warrant an ejection, as the rules require.

This is important to note because both the Ravens and Niners have a reputation for being “dirty” teams. Baltimore racked up a league-high 1,127 penalty yards and San Francisco was wrung up for 960 due to flags this season. The Ravens had the most unnecessary roughness calls (14) in the league and were also flagged for four roughing the passer penalties. San Francisco wasn’t far behind with 12 unnecessary roughness fouls to its credit. It will be interesting to see if Boger exhibits the same laid-back demeanor Sunday and if both teams will take advantage of it.

A few more important notes about Boger:

- He has officiated two games involving the 49ers this season and the Niners put up 45 points in both of them. Boger was in control of San Francisco’s 45-3 thumping of Buffalo in Week 5 and was also the main man for the Niners’ 45-31 win over Green Bay in the divisional round of the playoffs. Both of those games played over their respective totals.

- Teams played over the total in seven of Boger’s 12 games officiated this season and combined for an average of 42.8 points per game. The total is currently set at 47 for Sunday's game.

- After a 26-3 win over San Francisco in Week 6, New York Giants offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride suggested 49ers defensive lineman Justin Smith "gets away with murder" by holding opponents to free up outside linebacker Aldon Smith for sacks. Expect Boger to have a keen eye on Smith Sunday.

- Boger will not be working with his regular crew Super Bowl Sunday. The seven-man crew has a combined 77 years of officiating experience and 50 combined playoff assignments.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/03/2013 12:17 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, February 3

Super Bowl, New Orleans
We talked two weeks ago about success #4 seeds have in conference title games; well, since 1990, six #4 seeds made it to a Super Bowl- the last five went 5-0 vs spread, going 3-2 SU (Buffalo got crushed in '92). #4 seeds are division winner with worst record in conference, but they get in the tournament, get a home game in first round, and they've done well. Baltimore is a #4 seed.

I'm disregarding Baltimore's 16-6 win over the 49ers LY, since it was a Thursday game, so Niners had long trip on very short prep, an impossible situation.

49ers have advantage of having played in Superdome this year, winning 31-21 in Week 12 game; Ravens have only one game ever in this building, back in '06. San Francisco is 3-2 in domed stadiums this year; Ravens lost 43-13 at Houston, in their only dome game this year.

This is only 5th Super Bowl since 1990 with neither #1 seed, but 3rd in last five years; three of other four were decided by 7 or less points. NFC teams are 4-1 in last five Super Bowls, underdogs covering four of those five games.

Both teams looked dead during the playoffs; 49ers were down 17-0 in Atlanta in NFC title game, Ravens needed a ridiculous 70-yard bomb to tie game at Denver in last minute. Kaepernick had never started a game before this season, he is the 4th Super Bowl QB to say that-- two of first three won that first game.

NFC is generally better than the AFC, 49ers are higher-seeded team in the better half of the league, so logic dictates they'll win, but one red flag for the 49ers is their kicker, David Akers, who has had a bad year. Baltimore has a terrific kicker in rookie Tucker. I'm predicting the first overtime game in Super Bowl history, with the Ravens winning, 23-20.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/03/2013 12:19 PM

Super Bowl action report: Lines getting longer, 49ers money rolling in

Action on the Super Bowl is starting to pick up Friday afternoon as tourist roll into Las Vegas and online books watch their servers hum with the flood of Big Game bets.

We chat with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook supervisor at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, and Aron Black of Bet365.com as we head into the Super Bowl weekend.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Bets slowly rolled in over the past two weeks, but lines are getting longer at Las Vegas sportsbooks and the majority of those bettors are putting their money down on the San Francisco 49ers.

Books expected this push from the public after taking one-sided action on the Baltimore Ravens for nearly two weeks. The MGM Mirage is dealing the 49ers -3.5 (-120) and is bracing for some big bets, which had to be approved, to come in.

“Right now we’re getting more San Francisco money, but we’re waiting on some larger wagers to come in and we don’t know who they’re betting,” says Stoneback, referring to some renowned casino players and guests expected to flirt with seven-figure wagers Sunday. “Those will make an impact.”

As for the total, both Nevada and online books expect a lean towards the over in the hours before kickoff. Stoneback believes the total, which stands at 47.5, could get as high as 49 before sharps buyback on the under.

The futures odds are an interesting market for most sportsbooks. San Francisco entered the season as the overall favorite to win the Super Bowl and has drawn a lot more attention in the second half of the NFL season.

“Futures wise, we want Baltimore,” Black told Covers. “San Francisco has been heavily backed all season, which died down when Smith went out. But with Kaepernick’s performances and San Francisco winning, they were very popular for the Super Bowl book going into the playoffs.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/03/2013 12:32 PM

47 great betting notes for Super Bowl XLVII


We're just a few days away from Super Bowl XLVII so it's time to really buckle down and get focused on your bets. We put together a list of the best 47 Super Bowl betting notes we could find to help you with your handicapping down the stretch.

Super Bowl/Prop Betting Notes

1. The loser has scored exactly 10 points in four of the six previous Super Bowls at the Superdome.

2. The average margin of victory in those six games at the Superdome was 22 points, thanks to blowouts conducted by arguably the two greatest teams of all time: the 1989 San Francisco 49ers and the 1985 Chicago Bears. The last Super Bowl played in New Orleans, however, was the razor-thin 20-17 New England victory over St. Louis in 2002. (note via cbc.ca)

3. As NFL head coaches, neither Harbaugh has lost a game following a bye week including the playoffs. John is 6-0; Jim is 3-0-1.

4. Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

5. Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

6. The NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS.

7. The over is 3-2 in San Francisco's last five trips to the Super Bowl. The Ravens covered the over by themselves against the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.

8. The last running back to be Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis (Broncos 1998). Since then nine QBs, three WRs, and two defensive players have won MVP.

9. The Super Bowl coin toss is one of the most popular prop bets every year. 'Heads' has been the right call in the last four Super Bowls and five of the last six.

10. Until last season, when New England won the flip, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip each of the previous 14 years. (Marc Lawrence)

11. Over the previous 46 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 19 times.

12. In the past 20 years, 17 Super Bowls have been won by the team that hails from the city with the lower unemployment rate. It would seem a win for the Ravens is a slam dunk then with Baltimore's 7.2 percent rate trumping San Francisco's 8.2 percent rate. (Fox Sports)

13. Tecmo Bowl, the football arcade game originally released in 1988, predicted a 49ers 37-17 victory in a simulated Super Bowl game recently conducted by a group called The TecmoBowlers.

14. The Super Bowl record for the team that scores first is 30-16 SU.

Action Betting Notes

15. The most action wagered in Nevada on a Super Bowl came in 2006 when $94.5 million was taken in for the Seahawks-Steelers game. The books won nearly $9 million in Pittsburgh's 21-10 victory - a win percentage or hold of 9.3 percent. (via Nevada Gaming Control Board)

16. The only time Nevada sportsbooks lost money on the Super Bowl in the past 10 years was the 2008 game between the Giants and Patriots. They lost a combined $2.6 million in total (-2.8 percent hold) in the Giants' 21-17 victory. (via Nevada Gaming Control Board)

17. Teddy Covers: "I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff."

18. John Avello, executive director of sports and racing at the Wynn Las Vegas says about 20 percent of the total Super Bowl handle will be from prop bets.

San Francisco 49ers Betting Notes

19. San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has improved against added pressure during the postseason, primarily because he is making quicker decisions. He held onto the football for 3.8 seconds before passing, taking a sack or scrambling in the regular season when facing five or more pass rushers (league average: 3.4 seconds). That has dipped to 2.8 seconds in the postseason, and the result has been a 98.9 total quarterback rating (out of 100).

20. Super Bowl XLVII will end a streak of five straight title games where at least one quarterback had Super Bowl experience (ESPN Stats and Info).

21. The 49ers feature nearly twice as many former first-round picks (15) than the Ravens (8). (ESPN Stats and Info)

22. The NFC has won three straight Super Bowls. The last time the NFC won four in a row was streak of 13 straight Super Bowl wins from 1984-96.

23. Thirty-nine of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned top-10 ranked defenses.

24. While clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

25. The 49ers are 5-0 all-time in the Super Bowl. They are the only franchise with more than one Super Bowl appearance without a loss.

26. San Francisco needs a win Sunday to tie Pittsburgh as the only franchises to win six Super Bowls.

27. The 49ers' Vernon Davis has the most receiving yards per game (110.5) by a tight end in postseason history.

28. The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt. He is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

29. Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

30. The over is 6-0 in San Francisco's last six games overall.

31. San Francisco had the No. 3 total defense in the league this year, the No. 2 scoring defense, the No. 2 rushing defense and the No. 4 passing defense in the regular season.

32. The 49ers are averaging significantly more yards and points in all those categories in the playoffs, except for rushing yards per game, where they're giving up about two fewer yards per game than in the regular season.

33. The Niners have greatly increased the use of the option their two playoff games, running the play 29 times while averaging 8.4 yards per rush with four touchdowns. (ESPN Stats & Info)

34. The San Francisco 49ers have outscored opponents 114-58 in the third quarter this season.

35. The Niners have been outscored 64-78 by their opposition in the first quarter this season.

36. The 49ers have been beat up by the deep ball recently, allowing 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. They gave up only 32 plays of 20 or more yards in the 15 games previous. To cut the Niners some slack, those games were against elite QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Notes

37. Ray Rice is averaging 21.3 carries per game this postseason. The Ravens are 21-3 when he starts and gets more than 20 carries.

38. The Ravens lead the all-time series with the 49ers 3-1 and have won three straight. The last two Ravens-49ers games have had a combined two TDs scored.

39. The Ravens are 7-1 all-time as the No. 4 seed. Their previous Super Bowl win in 2001 came as a No. 4 seed. Baltimore boasts a 13-7 record in the postseason, the best win percentage of any franchise.

40. The Ravens have allowed only two passing TDs to tight ends this season (including the playoffs) - the fewest TDs allowed to tight ends this season.

41. Baltimore's only Super Bowl appearance was in 2001, which was one of the most profitable Super Bowls for sportsbooks (16.3% win percentage) over the past 12 seasons. The Ravens were favored by three points in their 34-7 win over the Giants.

42. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games.

43. The Ravens had to play in three playoff games prior to the Super Bowl, while San Francisco has only had to play in two. Five of the last seven Super Bowl winners had to play in the Wild Card round.

44. With eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, Joe Flacco has a shot to tie or break Joe Montana's record for most touchdown passes without throwing an interception in a single postseason. (ESPN Stats & Info)

45. Every quarterback who has finished a postseason throwing at least eight touchdowns without a pick has not only won the Super Bowl, but also the Super Bowl MVP. (ESPN Stats & Info)

46. The Ravens are 10-5 in road/neutral playoff games - the best win percentage of any franchise. (ESPN Stats and Info)

47. Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition, while managing to bounce back and dominate in the fourth quarter.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/03/2013 12:36 PM

Super Bowl action report: Books could see spread as high as 4.5


The betting public tends to gravitate toward the favorite and the over in the big games, and there is no game bigger than Super Bowl XLVII.

With kickoff just over 24 hours away, that one-sided wave of action on the San Francisco 49ers has pushed most sportsbook to move the spread for Sunday’s Big Game to Niners -4. If this trend continues, the spread could get close to its original number when the odds were released on Jan. 20.

“We were even for the first week and a half but the last few days the San Francisco money started to take over,” Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, told Covers. “We were at -3.5 for about 10 days but went to -4 late (Friday) morning. I expect it to close at -4.5 at most places with a few at -4.”

Online books are seeing similar betting patterns, with money leaning toward the favorite. However, while they do think the spread has a chance at -4.5, they expect sharp money to buy back the Ravens at the inflated spread.

“Definitely seems to be headed that way,” Dave Mason of BetOnline.ag told Covers. “Just took a couple sharp bets on San Francisco moneyline. They are now up to -180. My guess it will close four, with a good shot at 4.5. Would be surprised if it closes 3.5.”

As for action on the total, the tourists pouring into Sin City will likely be attaching the over to their San Francisco bets with some books expecting the number to climb as high as 49 before bettors come back on the under.

“After the first wave of under money it’s been nothing but over,” says Kornegay. “We expect that to continue and we’ll close the total at 48.5.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/03/2013 12:42 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Super Bowl XLVII

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, there’s no shortage of analysis and re-analysis. The media mosh pit breaks down every angle for the Big Game, in hopes of finding the edge.

We’ve been doing this each week of the NFL season, exposing the underlying mismatches to keep you one step ahead of the books, and we’re not going to stop now. Here are three betting mismatches you may or may not have considered when handicapping Super Bowl XLVII.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47)

Ravens’ deep threat vs. Niners’ deep-rooted issues

The Ravens rode the big arm of QB Joe Flacco to New Orleans, with Baltimore averaging 276 yards per game and 9.2 yards per pass in the playoffs. Flacco isn’t afraid to let it fly, going 20 yards or more on over 17 percent of his pass attempts this year – highest in the league. Half on his 22 TD passes this season have been on deep balls.

San Francisco watched Atlanta move the ball with ease en route to a 17-0 lead in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons spread the love amongst their receivers and got two deep strikes from WR Julio Jones. The 49ers have been beat up by the deep ball recently, allowing 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. They gave up only 32 plays of 20 or more yards in the 15 games previous. To cut the Niners some slack, those games were against elite QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Niners’ QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Ravens’ record vs. dual threats

Baltimore’s aging defense hasn’t had to tangle with many dual-threat QBs this season. However, the two times they did have to worry about the QB breaking off big gains, they got burned for losses. The Ravens fell 24-23 to Philadelphia and Michael Vick (371 yards passing, 34 yards rushing and a TD) in Week 2 and lost 31-28 in overtime to Washington and rookie Robert Griffin III (242 yards passing, 34 yards rushing) in Week 14.

The Ravens have a tough time getting sideline to sideline and Kaepernick presents a huge challenge. Not only does his ability to scramble and break the big run need to be accounted for on every snap, but he’s proven just as dangerous with his arm. Kaepernick gashed Green Bay for 181 yards and two TDs on the ground while tacking on two more scores and 263 passing yards in the NFC Divisional Round.

Ravens’ oh-so special teams vs. Niners’ not-so special teams

The biggest chink in the 49ers' armor this season is their special teams. San Francisco was second worst in the NFL in kick return coverage, giving up 26.9 yards per kickoff. The Niners didn’t take any chances last week, recording five touchbacks on five kickoffs. The Ravens return team was tops in the NFL in average return yards, picking up 27.3 yards per kickoff and returned two kicks for scores, both from speedster Jacoby Jones.

On top of that, Baltimore boasts the steady leg of rookie Justin Tucker, who connected on 32 of his 35 field goal attempts and is perfect on extra points. He’s hit both FG attempts in the postseason so far, which is more than 49ers kicker David Akers can say. Akers has been shaky all season (29 for 42 FGA) and “donged” a 38-yard attempt off the left upright versus Atlanta two weeks ago. San Francisco may roll the dice on fourth down instead of sending out Akers for the long FG shot Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/03/2013 12:42 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Super Bowl XLVII

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, there’s no shortage of analysis and re-analysis. The media mosh pit breaks down every angle for the Big Game, in hopes of finding the edge.

We’ve been doing this each week of the NFL season, exposing the underlying mismatches to keep you one step ahead of the books, and we’re not going to stop now. Here are three betting mismatches you may or may not have considered when handicapping Super Bowl XLVII.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47)

Ravens’ deep threat vs. Niners’ deep-rooted issues

The Ravens rode the big arm of QB Joe Flacco to New Orleans, with Baltimore averaging 276 yards per game and 9.2 yards per pass in the playoffs. Flacco isn’t afraid to let it fly, going 20 yards or more on over 17 percent of his pass attempts this year – highest in the league. Half on his 22 TD passes this season have been on deep balls.

San Francisco watched Atlanta move the ball with ease en route to a 17-0 lead in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons spread the love amongst their receivers and got two deep strikes from WR Julio Jones. The 49ers have been beat up by the deep ball recently, allowing 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. They gave up only 32 plays of 20 or more yards in the 15 games previous. To cut the Niners some slack, those games were against elite QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Niners’ QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Ravens’ record vs. dual threats

Baltimore’s aging defense hasn’t had to tangle with many dual-threat QBs this season. However, the two times they did have to worry about the QB breaking off big gains, they got burned for losses. The Ravens fell 24-23 to Philadelphia and Michael Vick (371 yards passing, 34 yards rushing and a TD) in Week 2 and lost 31-28 in overtime to Washington and rookie Robert Griffin III (242 yards passing, 34 yards rushing) in Week 14.

The Ravens have a tough time getting sideline to sideline and Kaepernick presents a huge challenge. Not only does his ability to scramble and break the big run need to be accounted for on every snap, but he’s proven just as dangerous with his arm. Kaepernick gashed Green Bay for 181 yards and two TDs on the ground while tacking on two more scores and 263 passing yards in the NFC Divisional Round.

Ravens’ oh-so special teams vs. Niners’ not-so special teams

The biggest chink in the 49ers' armor this season is their special teams. San Francisco was second worst in the NFL in kick return coverage, giving up 26.9 yards per kickoff. The Niners didn’t take any chances last week, recording five touchbacks on five kickoffs. The Ravens return team was tops in the NFL in average return yards, picking up 27.3 yards per kickoff and returned two kicks for scores, both from speedster Jacoby Jones.

On top of that, Baltimore boasts the steady leg of rookie Justin Tucker, who connected on 32 of his 35 field goal attempts and is perfect on extra points. He’s hit both FG attempts in the postseason so far, which is more than 49ers kicker David Akers can say. Akers has been shaky all season (29 for 42 FGA) and “donged” a 38-yard attempt off the left upright versus Atlanta two weeks ago. San Francisco may roll the dice on fourth down instead of sending out Akers for the long FG shot Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24832 Followers:33
02/03/2013 12:48 PM

NFL Super Bowl XLVII betting trends and notes


Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death. Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl.

In addition, this game marks Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis’ last game in his NFL career. The mercurial future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl XXXV MVP will be performing his final dance at the Superdome on February 3.

As such, Super Bowl XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.

Let’s take a look at how Baltimore and San Francisco arrived to New Orleans and what history says about their chances of hoisting the trophy.

All results are ATS (against the spread) unless noted otherwise.

Oh, brother

Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has been at his best when playing with a week or more of rest in his NFL career, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, John is 30-12 SU against teams he managed to defeat in a previous meeting.

The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

Under his lead, San Francisco is an eye-opening 25-1-1 SU in games in which it rushes the ball 25 or more times a game.

In addition, the Harbaughs bring smiles to the face of over players with Jim going 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

Warning: 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.

Advantage: Even

Commonality

These two teams squared off against two common opponents on 2012, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.

The Ravens were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the total yardage stats by an average 127 yards per game.

The Niners went 1-1 SU and ATS despite being out-yarded in both games by an average 86 yards per game.

In head-to-head games against fellow playoff squads this season, Baltimore went 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS and 4-5 ITS (In The Stats), while San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS.

Advantage: Ravens

Not so sweet favorites

The sporting public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a severe case of betting diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.

Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

FYI: Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.

Advantage: Ravens

Conference call

Much like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years.

However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

Ironically this game marks the seventh year in a row that the NFC representative squared off against the AFC East in its designated non-conference clashes.

This is only the second time in the last 11 years the AFC is the underdog.

Advantage: Niners

Statistically speaking

Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense is 11th best in the league while it’s 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.

San Francisco owns a Top-10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG On defense.

From Game 9 out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.

Advantage: Even

Defense rules… most of the time

It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top-10 ranked defenses.

What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

Advantage: Niners

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: