cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:47 PM

NFL Playoff Preview: Packers at 49ers

GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-5)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-4-1)


NFC Divisional Round Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -3, Total: 44.5

The 49ers try to reach the NFC Championship game for the second year in a row when they host the Packers on Saturday night in the Divisional Playoffs.

The Niners had two dramatic home playoff games a year ago, beating the Saints in a back-and-forth affair and losing to the Giants in overtime in the NFC title game. This year they have a different quarterback under center in Colin Kaepernick. They went 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS with Kaepernick as their starter, including 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home, outscoring opponents 86-33 in those games. These teams met at Green Bay in Week 1, a convincing 30-22 win for the Niners. They beat up Aaron Rodgers all day in that game, sacking him three times. The Packers continue to have protection problems, as Rodgers has absorbed 54 sacks this season.

Which team will advance to the NFC Championship? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL playoff game.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers wasn't outstanding last week (71.7 passer rating), but he still finished 23-of-33 for 274 yards (8.3 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT. For his postseason career, he is now 5-2 with a 105.4 passer rating, throwing for 2,055 yards (294 YPG), 16 TD and 4 INT. He's also been quite good in three career starts versus the Niners -- all since 2009 -- completing 70% of his passes for 945 yards (315 YPG), 7 TD and 1 INT. The one problem area has been his offensive line, as Rodgers has suffered 54 sacks this season, including three last week. The Niners had just 38 sacks this year (T-11th in NFL), but nearly half of those sacks (19.5) came from second-year DE Aldon Smith. And the team's star DT, Justin Smith, expects to return to the field after missing the past two games with a partially torn triceps tendon. A big reason why Rodgers hits the turf so much is because Green Bay's rushing offense is so weak (106.4 YPG, 20th in NFL). This number doesn't expect to rise against the Niners' 4th-ranked run defense (94.2 YPG) that limited the Packers to 45 yards on 14 carries (3.2 YPC) in Week 1. DuJuan Harris is the main ball carrier now, but he gained just 47 yards on 17 carries (2.8 YPC) last week. Instead, Green Bay will ask Rodgers to air it out against San Francisco's 4th-ranked passing defense (200.2 YPG). He has many choices in the passing game, targeting WRs Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson each six times last week, but he'll also look for the team's two leading receivers this season in Randall Cobb (954 rec. yds, 8 TD) and James Jones (784 rec. yds, NFL-high 14 TD). These four players combined for 23 catches for 256 yards in the Week 1 loss to the Niners, while TE Jermichael Finley contributed seven grabs for 47 yards and a touchdown.

Kaepernick has been excellent at home this season, completing 67% of his passes for 910 yards (9.2 YPA), 4 TD and 0 INT. He also finished the regular season on a high note with 8.3 YPA, 7 TD and 2 INT in his final three games (99.5 passer rating). His favorite target has been Michael Crabtree (85 rec, 1,105 yds, 9 TD), who has 35 catches for 538 yards in his past five games. TE Vernon Davis has just six catches and zero touchdowns in his past six games with Kaepernick under center, but he had a huge playoff performance last year with 292 receiving yards and 4 TD in the two games. But the 49ers are just 23rd in passing offense this season (206 YPG), mostly because they prefer to run the football with 156 rushing YPG (4th in NFL). Frank Gore has rushed for 1,214 yards (4.7 YPC) and 8 TD this season, and ran for 112 (7.0 YPC) of his team's 186 rushing yards in the Week 1 victory at Green Bay. Gore was excellent in his postseason debut last year, rushing for 163 yards (5.6 YPC) and gaining 83 more through the air over his team's two games. Although the Packers rank 17th in rushing defense (118.5 YPG), they place 11th against the pass (218.3 YPG). They also do a great job pressuring the quarterback (47 sacks, 4th in NFL) and have forced 2+ turnovers in five of the past eight games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:49 PM

Falcons open as slight faves over Seahawks

The Atlanta Falcons have opened as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 45.5 when they host the Seattle Seahawks in the divisional round of the playoffs next Sunday afternoon.

Mike Perry, oddsmaker for Sportsbook.ag, opened the floodgates just after Seattle’s 24-14 win over Washington.

The Seahawks have now covered in three straight road games, while the Falcons went 4-4 ATS in eight home games this season. Atlanta also played under the total in seven of its eight home affairs.




Broncos open as big faves over Ravens

The Denver Broncos have opened as 9.5-point favorites in next week's divisional playoff matchup when they host the Baltimore Ravens with the total set at 45.

Mike Perry, oddsmaker for Sportsbook.ag, saw immediate sharp action at Broncos -9.5 and moved the line to Denver -9.

The Ravens extended the career of LB Ray Lewis with a 24-9 win over the Colts, covering the 7-point spread Sunday afternoon. The Broncos pulled off a 34-17 victory in Baltimore back on Dec. 16, easily covering the 3-point spread.

The Broncos and Ravens will do battle Saturday afternoon at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Denver has covered its last two contests at home, where it has a 5-3 ATS record this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:50 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Division Round

Green Bay at San Francisco
The Packers look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road playoff games. Green Bay is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Niners favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 12

Game 109-110: Baltimore at Denver (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.360; Denver 147.000
Dunkel Line: Denver by 12 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Denver by 8 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8 1/2); Under

Game 111-112: Green Bay at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.948; San Francisco 141.937
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Over


SUNDAY, JANUARY 13

Game 113-114: Seattle at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 139.851; Atlanta 143.547
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 46
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under

Game 115-116: Houston at New England (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.514; New England 140.612
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 10; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+10); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:51 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 12

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BALTIMORE (11 - 6) at DENVER (13 - 3) - 1/12/2013, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
DENVER is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
DENVER is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (12 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (11 - 4 - 1) - 1/12/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 13

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SEATTLE (12 - 5) at ATLANTA (13 - 3) - 1/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (13 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/13/2013, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
HOUSTON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:52 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Baltimore at Denver, 4:30 ET CBS
Baltimore: 9-22 ATS off 3+ Unders
Denver: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite

Green Bay at San Francisco, 8:00 ET FOX
Green Bay: 15-6 Under away vs. conference opponents
San Francisco: 14-5 ATS off an ATS loss


Sunday, January 13, 2013

Seattle at Atlanta, 1:00 ET FOX
Seattle: 15-5 ATS as an underdog
Atlanta: 7-1 Under in home games

Houston at New England, 4:30 ET CBS
Houston: 10-2 ATS playing with revenge
New England: 10-1 Over off a home win by 10+ points

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:54 PM

NFL

Division Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 12

4:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Denver's last 23 games at home

8:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Green Bay is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
San Francisco is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay


Sunday, January 13

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. ATLANTA
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

4:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ENGLAND
Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England's last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games at home

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:55 PM

NFL

Division Round

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Take it or leave it: Capping NFL playoff rematches
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There’s a sense of familiarity in the NFL Divisional Round, with three of the four playoff matchups having already taken place during the regular season.

We talk to some of Covers Experts’ sharpest minds to see what bettors should take away from those recent meetings and what they should leave behind when preparing to bet this weekend’s postseason games.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 46)

Recent meeting: Denver won 34-17 as a 3-point road favorite in Week 15

What to take: Broncos’ success running the ball

Denver totaled 163 yards on 45 carries in that Week 15 meeting, the bulk of those touches going to RB Knowshon Moreno. He rumbled for 118 yards on 18 attempts and has been a steady threat on the ground since returning from injury in Week 12. Baltimore was bullied for 152 yards on the ground and lost the time of possession battle – 37:32 to 22:28 – in last weekend’s win over Indianapolis.

“Knowshon Moreno averaged 5.5 yards per attempt,” says Covers Expert Jesse Schule. “Look for that trend to continue this weekend, as Baltimore doesn't look great defending the run.”

What to leave: Flacco’s poor performance

Ravens QB Joe Flacco struggled out of the gate with the offense going three-and-out in its first five drives in Week 15. Flacco threw an interception at the end of the second quarter that was returned 98 yards for a score, turning a possible 10-7 outcome into a 17-point halftime hole. He finished the game with a dismal 0.4 QB rating. However, Flacco has played his best ball in the postseason, like last weekend’s 282-yard, two-TD performance versus the Colts.

“Given Flacco’s outstanding postseason track record, I’d have to expect that rating to improve significantly here,” says Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

Covers Expert Steve Merril also mentions that the Week 15 game came on the heels of the firing of Baltimore offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, leaving then-QB coach Jim Caldwell to call the plays versus the Broncos' stingy defense.

"Difficult spot and it showed," says Merril.


Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44.5)

Recent meeting: San Francisco won 30-22 as a 6-point road underdog in Week 1

What to take: QB pressure

Both teams love to pressure the quarterback but both also give up quite a few sacks. Green Bay and San Francisco combined for seven sacks in their Week 1 meeting. While the Packers ranked fourth with 47 sacks of their own, they also allowed Aaron Rodgers to go down 51 times – second most in the league. San Francisco finished with 38 sacks but allowed opponents to sack its QBs 41 times – ninth most in the NFL.

“The one thing we can take from the game is the pressure applied to the quarterback,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo. “The Packers were sacked three times while San Francisco was sacked four times and that carried on throughout the season.”

What to leave: Packers’ poor running game

Green Bay ran the ball only 14 times during Week 1’s contest with San Francisco, totaling 45 yards on those limited efforts. The Packers’ RB depth chart was shallow with Cedric Benson rushing for 18 yards on nine carries and the rest of those gains coming from a scrambling Rodgers, who tacked on 27 yards on five attempts. Green Bay’s ground game has come a long way since the season opener. It rushed for 72 yards on 16 carries in Week 17 and ran the ball 31 times for 76 yards in last weekend’s Wild Card win.

“Green Bay showed a renewed commitment to its ground game in last week's win over the Vikings, and I don't think the Pack want to bomb away with Rodgers the way they did in their first meeting with the Niners,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy.


Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5, 47.5)

Recent meeting: New England won 42-14 as a 5.5-point home favorite in Week 14

What to take: Brady’s big day

No matter how good your defense can be, Brady will break you. The Patriots' stud QB did just that versus Houston in Week 14, passing for 296 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win. The Texans defense was able to contain a second-year passer in Andy Dalton last week, limiting Cincinnati to 127 yards on 14-for-30 passing with one interception. But we’re talking ‘bout Tommy here.

“When he’s on, he’s tough to beat,” Fargo says of Brady. “It was one of nine games this season that he had a passer rating of 100 or better and the playoffs are usually his time to shine.”

What to leave: Foster’s limited load

Texans star RB Arian Foster touched the ball just 15 times for 46 yards and a score in that Week 14 loss on Monday Night Football. With Houston playing from behind, the offensive shifted to the passing game. Foster had a monster day versus the Bengals, rushing for 140 yards and a touchdown, and is Houston’s rock with QB Matt Schaub running out of steam down the stretch. Schaub has just one TD pass to five interceptions in his last four outings, so prepare for a big day from No. 23.

“Gary Kubiak has his share of critics, but he's not a dumb coach,” says Murphy. “He knows he can't have a struggling Matt Schaub dropping back and throwing the football 30-plus times if the Texans are going to win this game.”


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:56 PM

NFL Divisional Round betting trends and notes

Once again, after expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. And while a Wild Card team has done so only seven times in Super Bowl history, five such winners have been crowned since 1997.

The 2010 season witnessed the Green Bay Packers hauling home the hardware. In 2007 it was the New York Giants, in 2005 the Pittsburgh Steelers, in 2000 the Baltimore Ravens and in 1997 the Denver Broncos.

Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? With one of the top seeds (Atlanta) owning the worst remaining defense in its conference and its opponent (Seattle) sporting a Top-4 ranked stop-unit, an argument can certainly be made either way.

It’s important to remember that 39 of the last 46 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top-10 ranked defense.

Before we crown anyone just yet, let’s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy.

All results are since 1990 and are ATS (against the spread), unless noted otherwise.

Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed

No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with a week of additional rest.

For the most part, these teams have met with modicum of success, going 31-11 SU and 23-19 ATS in this role.

The best the NFC has to offer has gone 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS, including 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS if they won 13 or fewer games last season.

The NFC spotlight shines on top-seeded Atlanta this week.

Top seeds from the AFC have struggled, going 14-9 SU and 9-13 ATS, including 6-5 SU and 2-9 ATS when playing off back-to-back wins.

No. 1 seed Denver will look to improve on those numbers when it hosts Baltimore Saturday.

Success Breeds Success

Rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 29-6 SU and 21-13-1-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Division Round contests.

New England and San Francisco fit the bill this season, rather cautiously though, as teams in this role are just 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS the last six years.

On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last year (seven or fewer wins) are just 10-34 SU and 18-24-1 ATS in this round, including 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS when taking on No. 1 seeds.

However, before snapping the rubber band and fading Seattle this week - the only losing team last year to make it to the Division Round this year - you should know these “losers” were 3-0 SU and ATS in this round last season.

Your move.

Highway Blues

Life on the road for Wild Card teams who won at home has been rocky at best, especially for those who covered the spread as well.

These highwaymen are just 12-34 SU and 17-27-2 ATS in this role against well-rested, higher-seeded foes.

And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road off one win-exact, they dip to a filthy 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs.

Baltimore, Houston and Green Bay all look to avoid becoming road kill this week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 02:58 PM

Seahawks K Hauschka placed on IR; Longwell signed

The Seattle Seahawks placed kicker Steven Hauschka on injured reserve with a calf injury and signed veteran kicker Ryan Longwell Wednesday.

Hauschka strained his calf muscle in the second quarter of the Seahawks' victory over the Redskins on Sunday. He made 24 of his 27 field-goal attempts in the regular season and converted three field goals against Washington last week despite the injury.

Longwell, 38, hasn’t kicked this season after being cut in May by the Minnesota Vikings, but does have a significant amount of playoff experience and the most field goals in Green Bay Packers history (226).

The Seahawks are 1-point underdogs Sunday at Atlanta with the total set at 45.5

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Where the action is: NFL Playoffs mid-week line moves

The NFL Playoffs are down to just eight elite teams heading into this weekend’s Divisional Round matchups.

We talk with Aron Black of Bet365.com about the early betting action on these games and where he sees the line ending up by kickoff:

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos – Open: -9, Move: -8.5, Move: -9.5

Early money took the underdog, dropping the opener to -8.5, but action has come back on the Broncos and could have this moving as high as -10 before the 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff. According to Black, Denver bets are outnumbering Baltimore bets at a 2.5-to-1 rate while the total action is on Denver at a 4-to-1 lean.

“Baltimore has a slight edge from other teams in that it should be a pretty cold day in Denver on game day,” Black told Covers. “Obviously, Baltimore is used to that themselves, unless a snowstorm rolls in, which is always possible in Denver. Then we should see the line stay pretty steady to kickoff.”

The total has moved up from as low as 45 to 46.5 as of Wednesday. The early forecast is calling for a chance of snow in the afternoon and temperatures falling as low as 8 degrees.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -3.5, Move: -3, Move: -2.5

Some online books opened as high as San Francisco -3.5 and some have made the move off the key number to -2.5 with money coming in on Green Bay. The majority of markets opened the Niners as juiced field-goal favorites but have since moved to plus money with action on the Packers coming in at a 4-to-1 pace.

Black says the flood of action on Green Bay – both spread and moneyline (Packers moneyline action outnumbering 49ers moneyline at 6-to-1) – will put bookmakers in a tough spot as they try to stay on the key number of -3.

“Most places are hoping San Francisco gets support but there are places that may have to test the principles about moving off three,” says Black. “I can’t see many major books having anything but Green Bay money heavy on +3, so breaking to -2.5 will be a real choker for many bookies.”

“Along with most places, we are hanging onto the -3 and hopefully will get at least some margin back in our favor,” he adds. “But I think this will go more to Green Bay before any step back to San Francisco.”

The total has come down as low as 44.5 after opening at 45.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -1.5, Move: -3, Move: -2.5

Depending on where you bet, Atlanta is available as low as -1.5 versus the Seahawks Sunday. Atlanta took the early money and was as high as a field-goal fave before buyback on Seattle took the line off the key number.

With a past of poor postseason showings, Black isn’t sold on the Falcons this weekend. And apparently bettors aren’t either. As of Wednesday, the action is very balanced with a slight lean toward the home side when it comes to the spread and even money on either side to win SU.

“I think this one stays near where it is, with the variety of lower juiced numbers making up the market,” says Black. “It’s possible it will go to Atlanta and break to -3, but books would only do that if the action is right on the lower numbers.”

The total for this NFC Divisional showdown has moved from 45.5 to 46 as of Wednesday afternoon.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots – Open: -9.5, Move: -9, Move: -9.5

Black recalls the line movement from the last time these teams met in Foxboro. New England opened as a 3.5-point home favorite and was bet up as high as -6.5 by kickoff for that Week 14 Monday Night Football showcase. The Patriots ended up thumping Houston 42-14. Books didn’t fool around with the spread for this rematch, setting the Pats as big chalk.

“Let’s just say that New England knows how to win, knows how to play, knows how to beat other teams when it matters,” says Black.

Action on the spread has come in on the Patriots at a 2-to-1 ratio while moneyline players are jumping on New England at a 5-to-1 pace. Black says the Pats will be the banker for the weekend games, with the books’ overall NFL hold riding on this final game.

“This one shouldn’t drop to lower than -9 and there’s no need for it to,” he says. “The money on New England will come and there will be those who will continue to play the higher number on Houston plus the points. But if the last five weeks are anything to go on, then more folks will look to get down on New England.”

The total for this weekend finale has moved from 48.5 to 47.5.

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Weather watch: Rain, cold and snow could impact NFL playoffs

Three of the four NFL Divisional matchups are outdoors this weekend and Mother Nature isn’t holding back just because it’s the playoffs.

The early forecast for Saturday and Sunday is calling for cold, snow and rain. If you plan on playing the totals, make sure to check out the updated weather reports before placing your bets.

Here’s a closer look at how weather could impact those games:

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 46)

The forecast for the Mile High City is calling for chilly temperatures, dropping the mercury to 8 degrees later in the evening. There is a chance of snow earlier in the day, which means the white stuff could stick around for the 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The total for this game has actually climbed a touch since opening at 45 points at a couple of books.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44.5)

Candlestick Park is a long way from the “frozen tundra of Lambeau Field”, but that doesn’t mean weather won’t be a factor in the Bay Area. The extended forecast is calling for a chance of rain Saturday night, giving the natural grass a slick sprinkle. Temperatures will be in the mid 40s. The total has dropped since opening as high as 45.5.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-9.5, 47.5)

Rain could come into play in the second half of Sunday’s AFC Divisional game at Gillette Stadium. The forecast for Foxboro is calling for a 21 percent chance of showers later in the evening and game-time temperatures sinking into the low 40s - a far cry from the Texans' domed field at Reliant Stadium. The total has moved down since opening at 48.5 points.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
01/12/2013 03:01 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 46)

Peyton Manning guided the Broncos to 11 consecutive victories to close out the regular season. Among those wins was a dominating 34-17 rout of the Ravens in Baltimore less than a month ago - a game Denver led 31-3 after three quarters. It was Manning's ninth straight victory over the Ravens. Baltimore allowed Denver to control the clock for more than 38 minutes in the first matchup. The Broncos have scored at least 30 points nine times and posted seven double-digit victories during its winning streak. They’re also 4-0 ATS in their last four overall.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 44.5)

The 49ers went 6-1-1 at Candlestick Park and beat Green Bay 30-22 at Lambeau Field in Week 1. The focus this week will be on Aaron Rodgers facing a San Francisco defense that has held opposing passers to 200.2 yards - fourth-best in the NFL - and finished second in the league in scoring defense. The Niners’ stop unit has surrendered an average of 13.9 points in eight home games. San Francisco RB Frank Gore rushed for 112 yards on 16 carries against the Packers in Week 1, but has not reached 100 on the ground in any of the last nine contests. The over is 7-1 in the 49ers’ last eight games.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 45.5)

The Seahawks have ripped off six consecutive victories and turned in an impressive performance last weekend, erasing an early 14-0 deficit in Washington to eliminate the Redskins 24-14. Seattle has allowed the fewest points in the league (15.3 per game) and has shaken its reputation as a team unable to win away from CenturyLink Field by prevailing in its last three road games. But the Seahawks have some injury concerns as both DE Chris Clemons (knee) and kicker Steven Hauschka (calf) sustained injuries in last week’s win and are on injured reserve. The Falcons are 0-3 in the playoffs in the past four seasons and were destroyed in their last two postseason appearances by a combined 72-23. Seattle is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

Houston at New England (-9.5, 47.5)

Houston was blown out 42-14 at New England in Week 14. Tom Brady threw touchdown passes on the first three drives for the high-powered Patriots, who bolted to a 21-0 lead and nullified the Texans' ability to control the game on the ground through Arian Foster. New England was without an injured Rob Gronkowski, who finished tied for fourth in the NFL with 11 TD catches and is healthy now. The Texans brushed aside their poor finish to the season and limited Cincinnati to 198 total yards in last Saturday's 19-13 wild-card victory. The Patriots are 1-8 ATS in their last nine playoff games.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Division Round

Keep in mind that all four home teams had last week off; visiting teams all had to win to get to this weekend.

Ravens (11-6) @ Broncos (13-3)—Denver hasn’t lost since Week 5 in Foxboro, winning last 11 games, including 34-17 (-3) in Baltimore four weeks ago, when they held Ravens to 56 rushing yards, 1-12 on 3rd down and scored a defensive TD. Broncos held last four opponents to 17 or less points; they’ve won last six home games, all by 7+ points. Peyton Manning is just 9-10 in his playoff career, but he’s won his last eight starts vs Baltimore. Ravens’ win last week was their second in last six games, during which time they fired their OC; they lost last two road games—five of their eight road games were decided by 3 or less points (Ravens 4-4 SU, 1-3 as road dog). Home teams won eight of ten series games; Ravens lost three of four here. Teams met once before in playoffs; Baltimore won 21-3 at home during their Super Bowl run 12 years ago. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home. AFC North underdogs are 8-10, 4-7 on road. Last three Raven games stayed under total; over is 5-3 in Denver’s home games this year. #1 seed in AFC has actually lost this game four of last seven years, and is 2-7 vs spread in this game last nine years.

Packers (12-5) @ 49ers (11-4-1)—Green Bay had won last eight series games before Niners (+6) beat them 30-22 at Lambeau in season opener, outrushing Pack 186-45. GB dropped back to pass 47 times, ran ball only 14 times, would expect that to change here, with Packers having won 10 of last 12 games, including four of last six on road (1-1 as underdog this year). Pack won last three visits here, but this is Rodgers’ first start here, in area where he went to college (Cal). GB’s last loss here was in ’98 playoff game. QB mismatch favors Pack, with Kaepernick making first playoff start. 49ers scored 13-3-13-13 points in their four losses this year; Pack held four of last six opponents to 14 or less. Niners are 6-1-1 at home this year, 4-4 as home favorites. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 6-5 at home; NFC North underdogs are 4-6, 3-5 on foreign soil. Six of last eight Green Bay games stayed under total; seven of last eight 49er games went over. #2 seed in NFC won this game five of last six years, but is 4-5 vs spread in last nine.

Seahawks (12-5) @ Falcons (13-3)—Lot of pressure on the home team here. Mike Smith has done great job with Atlanta, but he hasn’t won playoff game; now would be good time for that, vs red-hot Seattle team that won its last six games, coming back from down 14-0 last week in Washington. Falcons were 5-3 in second half of season after 8-0 first half; they’re 4-4 as home favorites this year, with only SU loss in meaningless season finale vs Tampa Bay. Seattle is 3-5 in true road games (beat Bills in Toronto); they’re 6-1 vs spread as an underdog this year, 3-1 on road. Falcons won last three series games, scoring 44-34-30 points; Seahawks haven’t been to Georgia Dome since 44-41 loss in ’07 season finale. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 13-10 vs spread, 8-9 at home; NFC West underdogs are 16-7, 12-5 on road. Five of last seven Seattle games went over total; six of last seven Falcon games stayed under. #1 seed in NFC lost this game four of last five years, covered only once in last six years.

Texans (13-4) @ Patriots (12-4)—11-1 Houston rolled into Foxboro six weeks ago and left 11-2 after getting waxed 42-14 in Week 14 Monday nighter, when Pats scored six TDs on 12 drives (all on drives of 68+ yards), converted 6-12 on 3rd down, averaged 7.8 ypa. Loss started Texans on 1-3 tailspin that cost them bye last week and home field in this game; Houston lost last two road games (Pats/Colts) after winning first six; they’re 1-1 as underdogs this year. NE won six of last seven home games; they’re 4-4 as home favorites, winning at home by 10-3-6-35-28-28 points. Home team won three of four series games, with Houston losing 40-7 (’06)/42-14 in only two visits here. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 11-11 vs spread, 7-7 at home; AFC South underdogs are 13-15, 6-10 on road. Six of last seven Patriot home games went over total; five of last six Houston games stayed under. #2 seed in AFC is 3-3 in this game last six years (2-4 vs spread).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: