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01/05/2013 01:41 AM
NFL

Wild Card Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 5

4:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 23 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, January 6

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. BALTIMORE
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

4:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. WASHINGTON
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Washington is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games at home
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Seattle


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01/05/2013 01:43 AM
Where the action is: NFL Wild Card midweek line moves

The NFL Wild Card weekend odds have been up since late Sunday and books have been busy taking bets and making adjustments on the four postseason matchups. We chat with Aron Black of Bet365.com about the NFL betting patterns heading into the weekend:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans – Open: -5, Move: -4, Move: -4.5

Early money pushed this spread off -5 and as low as -4 at some books before coming back up to settle at -4.5. According to Black, the money is very even with a slight lean toward Houston. However, the Texans' recent struggles have scared away plenty of bettors.

“Not as many buying in as they would have if Houston had just an average finish to season, which probably would have translated to a line closer to -6 or -6.5,” Black told Covers.

The sharp money has mostly sided with the home team and Black expects the public to jump on Houston as well, moving the line back to -5 or even -5.5 before Saturday.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers – Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5

Depending on where you play, the Vikings are anywhere between 8 and 9.5-point underdogs in this rematch of Week 17’s thrilling finale.

At Bet365.com, Black reports a slight lean toward Minnesota +8 from the betting public. He believes the classic Lambeau Field environment will play a big part in the outcome of Saturday’s game. The extended forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 20s.

“Conditions will be a factor in this one,” says Black. “A dome team going to Lambeau is always going to favor Green Bay. Sharp money has been swerving this one so far and I can see the line dropping a touch to Minnesota.”

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -7, Move: -6.5

The Colts weren’t supposed to be playing in January but here they are, taking on the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card round. Action on the spread has been split for the most part but books are seeing money come in on Indianapolis’ moneyline (+235), expecting more surprises from this team.

“Indianapolis has obviously been a surprise given how they were year last, but they have had a great season from rookie QB Andrew Luck and the bettors are at least split so far on who’s going to cover,” says Black. “Not sure this one will move much, but weather on the day may force something.”

The forecast for Sunday’s early game is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 30s with winds blowing WNW at 11 mph in Baltimore – a far cry from the cozy climate of the domed Lucas Oil Stadium.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins – Open: +2.5, Move: +3

Early action on the Seahawks has this spread sitting on the key number of 3 and Black says it will take a lot to move off the field goal before Sunday night. So far, action on Seattle is coming in at a 2-to-1 ratio and books are juggling the juice heading toward the weekend.

This game throws some mystery at bettors with two rookie quarterbacks leading the charge and its the only game this weekend where the home team is the underdog. Both Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III have played beyond their years, but Black feels Wilson has been the better of the two down the stretch.

“A lot has been written and lots of press given to Griffin and how good he has been this season. But looking at the numbers, Wilson at least holds his own and has had much better numbers leading down to the end of the season,” he says. “This game looks to be possibly the most exciting game of the wild card games.”
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01/05/2013 01:45 AM
NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Wild Card Weekend

Cincinnati at Houston (-4.5, 43)

The Bengals won seven of their final eight games to secure consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since the 1981-82 seasons. Cincinnati's defense has been sensational in the second half of the campaign, not allowing more than 20 points and limiting six of its last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. The Texans have dropped two straight SU and ATS and quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown only one TD pass against three interceptions in the past four games. The Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and have covered the number in their past four road games.


Minnesota at Green Bay (-9.5, 46)

The Packers have won 26 of their last 28 games (including the postseason) at Lambeau Field. They are just 2-4 in their last six home playoff games, however. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and amassed a season-high 365 yards for Green Bay in last week’s setback to the Vikings and has been at his best down the stretch, totaling 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Packers' final three regular-season games. Stopping Adrian Peterson will be the No. 1 goal for the Green Bay defense. The MVP candidate shredded the Packers for 409 yards in two meetings this season. The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.


Indianapolis at Baltimore (-6.5, 47)

The Ravens, who have dropped four of their last five games, are fueled by their own inspiration after future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis announced he will retire at the conclusion of the season and could be potentially playing in the final game of his career. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin will also be back on the field after his one-week hiatus with a bruised shoulder. Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is cruising into the postseason on a high. The top overall pick has thrown five touchdowns without an interception in his last three games - and the Colts have won nine of 11 following their 28-16 triumph over AFC South champion Houston. The Colts are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Ravens, but keep in mind those covers were during the Peyton Manning era in Indianapolis.


Seattle at Washington (3, 46)

The Redskins will host a playoff game for the first time in 13 years on Sunday. Washington has won seven consecutive contests SU and ATS, while Seattle enters on a five-game SU winning streak (4-1 ATS). Both teams feature potent rushing attacks, but the Seahawks have the edge on defense. Seattle allowed an average of 321.6 yards for the league's fourth-best mark while Washington allowed an average of 390.8 for the NFL's fourth-worst. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against a team with a winning record.
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01/05/2013 01:48 AM
Bengals at Texans: What bettors need to know

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5, 43)

A stunning late-season swoon cost the Houston Texans what appeared to be a certain first-round bye in the playoffs and put them in the position of having to host the surging Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday in the AFC wild-card round. The Texans were tied for the best record in football and were in the driver's seat for the top seed and home field throughout the playoffs before stumbling down the stretch with losses in three of their final four games. That included back-to-back defeats to Minnesota and Indianapolis to close out the regular season.

The Bengals, on the other hand, had little margin for error after a four-game losing streak left them wobbling at 3-5 at the season's midway point. Cincinnati regrouped to win four straight and seven of its final eight to secure consecutive postseason appearances for the first time since the 1981-82 seasons. The game will be a rematch of last season's first-round meeting in Houston, won 31-10 by the Texans.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The LVH opened the Texans as 5-point favorites and the line has bounced around between Houston -4 and -5 all week at most shops.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 52 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Texans to cover and 58 percent are on the over.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (10-6): Cincinnati's defense has been sensational in the second half of the season, not allowing more than 20 points and limiting six of its last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. The only defeat in the final eight games came on a last-second field goal to Dallas. The Bengals ranked second in the league with 51 sacks and showed their defensive mettle by winning at Pittsburgh 13-10 in Week 16 to clinch a playoff slot. Cincinnati rested many of its starters in the regular-season finale, but has questions about its running game after 1,000-yard rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis was held to 15 yards by the Steelers. He is also dealing with a sore hamstring. Second-year quarterback Andy Dalton has tossed only two TD passes in the past three games but, like Schaub, has an elite wideout in A.J. Green, who registered 97 receptions and 11 touchdowns.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (12-4): Houston managed a single offensive touchdown the past two games in squandering a pair of chances to sew up a first-round bye. But while many point to the 42-14 beating at New England on Dec. 10 as the start of the Texans' skid, they have been inconsistent for the past seven weeks, beginning with consecutive overtime wins over Jacksonville and Detroit. Quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown only one TD pass against three interceptions in the past four games. WR Andre Johnson has been the only reliable target in that span, hauling in 38 catches to finish the season with 112 receptions and 1,598 yards. Running back Arian Foster rushed for 1,424 yards and scored a league-high 17 touchdowns. Defensive end J.J. Watt had 20 1/2 sacks to anchor a defense that was the league's best for much of the season but allowed at least 28 points in four of the last seven games.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 8-0 in Bengals’ last eight games following a win.
* Under is 4-1 in Texans’ last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Foster rushed for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Houston's playoff win over the Bengals last season.

2. Dalton, who was picked off three times in the postseason loss to Houston, threw 11 interceptions in the first eight games this season but only five in the final eight.

3. The Texans beat the Bengals twice last season, clinching the AFC South title on a last-second 20-19 win at Cincinnati.
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01/05/2013 01:52 AM
Vikings at Packers: What bettors need to know

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay (-9.5, 46)

Just six days after an instant classic in the regular-season finale, the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will meet in the first round of the playoffs on Saturday night. The Vikings used a last-second field goal to steal the win on Sunday at home and grab the final wild-card spot in the NFC. This time, the Packers will have the home field advantage as the No. 3 seed and NFC North champion.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson came up nine yards short of beating Eric Dickerson’s season record but made the play when it counted on Sunday, breaking through on a 26-yard run to set up Blair Walsh’s 29-yard field goal in the final seconds. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes and amassed a season-high 365 yards for Green Bay in the setback and has been at his best down the stretch, totaling 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in the Packers' final three regular-season games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Books are seeing heavy action on the Vikings that has moved the line to Green Bay -7.5 at some offshores.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 68 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Vikings to cover and 65 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-20s with a slight chance of freezing rain. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (10-6): Minnesota needed to win its final four games of the regular season just to reach the playoffs and knocked off playoff contenders Chicago, Houston and Green Bay in those final weeks. Peterson carried it 34 times for 199 yards in Week 17 and averaged 159.8 yards over the final 10 games of the regular season despite being less than a year removed from major knee surgery. While Peterson’s performance has been consistent, quarterback Christian Ponder’s effort in the finale was more of a surprise. The second-year starter passed for 234 yards and a season-high three touchdowns without an interception for a career-best 120.2 rating. The Vikings have some big questions on defense, as cornerback Antoine Winfield left Sunday’s game with a hand injury and is questionable. Rodgers threw for three scores with Winfield off the field.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (11-5): Green Bay did not have the same motivation as Minnesota last week, with the Packers' postseason spot already assured. They could have earned a first-round bye with a victory, but the “win or go home” mentality that will be there this week was not on display in Minneapolis. Rodgers is working with a battered receiving corps with Randall Cobb (ankle) questionable and Jordy Nelson (hamstring) limited. Greg Jennings caught a pair of touchdown passes last week in his best game of the season and could get a lot more attention from the Minnesota secondary on Saturday. Stopping Peterson will be the No. 1 goal for the defense. The MVP candidate shredded Green Bay for 409 yards in two meetings this season.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.
* Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Green Bay.
* Over is 4-0 in Packers’ last four playoff home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. This will mark just the second meeting between the two division rivals in the playoffs. The Vikings won a wild-card game at Lambeau Field in 2004.

2. The Packers have won 26 of their last 28 games (including the postseason) at Lambeau Field. They are just 2-4 in their last six home playoff games, however, including a loss to the New York Giants in the divisional round last season.

3. Minnesota is tied for 27th in the NFL with just 10 interceptions - three by Winfield.
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01/05/2013 01:56 AM
NFL expert bloggers give one reason to bet their wild card team

Handicapping the NFL playoffs isn't easy. Luckily, we recruited the help of the people who know this weekend's teams the best - the bloggers that have been keeping close tabs all season long.

We asked all eight bloggers to give bettors one reason to back their respective teams in the opening round of the playoffs:

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-4.5, 43)





Why the Bengals will cover

Mickey Mentzer owns WhoDeyFans.com. You can follow him on twitter at @whodeyfans and hear him every Wednesday on the WhoDey Weekly podcast presented by SPNT.TV.

The Bengals are in the Top 3 for sacks this season and this is largely because of the play of the Bengals defensive line. The front four generated 42 of the their 51 sacks (that alone is better than 25 other NFL teams). And the rest of the Bengals defense is pretty good too. In the last eight games, the Bengals have gone 7-1 SU. They’ve allowed 12.8 points per game and their one loss was by a single point. In the last three games, the defense has nine turnovers, nine sacks and three touchdowns.

Why the Texans will cover

Stephanie Stradley writes TexansChick, a blog for the Houston Chronicle. You can follow her on Twitter @StephStradley and check out her blog at StephStradley.com.

The Texans penalties down the stretch are much higher than earlier in the season. For the last five games, they've averaged around nine penalties when they normally average about five. The Texans’ penalty averages at home are less than on the road - 5.5 at home, compared to 8 on the road. Not surprisingly, the Bengals penalties are higher on the road with an average of 7.2. In a closely matched game, where the difference can be a few plays, penalties could be the difference maker. Reliant Stadium can be very loud because of the roof and proximity of the seats, and will be especially raucous for the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 46)





Why the Vikings will cover

PJD writes for the Purple Jesus Diaries. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @PJDiaries.

The Vikings will – or could - beat the Packers this weekend because these teams know each other too well. Adrian Peterson on the ground will prevent a Packers’ blowout win and rookie Blair Walsh will make the difference in a tight game, where Mason Crosby’s risky leg will fail. Expect a tight contest, with a close Vikings win.

Why the Packers will cover

Ray Rivard is the editor of Lombardi Ave. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @lombardiave.

Aaron Rodgers will continue to take four or five sacks in Saturday's game, but that doesn't matter. He will get right up and throw for a first down time and time again. Playing at Lambeau Field on a cold Saturday night won't matter, it will be a boost for him. Losing to the Vikings in the final game of the season to force a Wild Card Weekend showdown will only make the chip on his shoulder heavier. He will come out and play his best game of the season. He will record a minimum of three touchdown passes and 300 yards.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 47)





Why the Colts will cover

Greg Cowan is the managing editor for Colts Authority. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @coltsauthority and @ca_radio.

Those wanting a reason to bet on Indianapolis should look no further than the Colts' sideline. Not only has head coach Chuck Pagano instilled a never-quit mindset, but no one knows the Ravens better than Pagano and OC Bruce Arians. Pagano served on the Ravens' defensive staff from 2008-2011 and Arians prepared for the Ravens twice a season as Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator from 2007-2011. Their never-quit attitude and knowledge of their opponent should give bettors confidence in the Colts.

Why the Ravens cover

Justin Silberman writes for Ravens24x7.com/ Russellstreetreport.com. You can follow him on twitter at @RussellStReport and @Jsilbe3.

Joe Flacco finds himself in the middle of the elite quarterback discussion – is he or isn’t he? One thing is for sure: Flacco is an elite quarterback at M&T Bank Stadium, the site of Sunday’s game against the Colts. In eight home games this year, Flacco completed 176 of 283 passes for 2,363 yards, 15 touchdowns, five interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 99.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+3, 46)





Why the Seahawks cover the spread

Rob Davies writes for Field Gulls. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @FieldGulls.

Russell Wilson will be the difference Sunday. The Rams' pass rush was a true test last week and it was perfect preparation for FedExField and a hostile environment. His continued mastery of the read-option, in conjunction with Marshawn Lynch, will keep a good Redskins run defense on their toes and open up the passing game. Plainly, Wilson doesn't get rattled and the extraordinary start to his career will last at least another week.

Why the Redskins cover the spread

Kevin Ewoldt is the managing editor for Hogs Haven. You can follow them on Facebook and on Twitter @HogsHaven.

Before dumping all your money on the Seahawks, first consider this: The Seahawks are 3-5 on the road this year while the Redskins have won their last four home games and are 5-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record.
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01/05/2013 03:38 PM
Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Wildcard Weekend
Four big games this weekend as the NFL playoffs officially get underway. We’re going to take a look in this report at what Sharps have been betting in all four games to this point in the week. We’ll also outline the best expectations for what Sharps would do on game day if public money moves any numbers before kickoff.

Let’s take the games in schedule order…

CINCINNATI at HOUSTON

Opening Line: Houston by 5, total of 44

Lowest Line: Houston by 4

Current Line: Houston by 4.5, total of 43

Games in the pocket between the three and the seven on the Vegas board sometimes take awhile to get settled because there’s no clear “percentage” play involving a key number. If betting action is dormant, sportsbooks are known to move the line a half point in either direction just to see if they get any nibbles. Sportsbooks can’t make money if nobody’s betting!

Generally speaking, Sharps aren’t enthusiastic about either team here. Those who preferred the dog took Cincinnati at the opener because they didn’t think slumping Houston would go up any higher than five. Those who don’t trust Cincinnati made small investments when the line dropped down to the four.

Sharps did prefer the Under at 44 because we have decent defenses on the field, and because Houston’s offense has slumped in recent weeks. They may not be any additional move downward because weather won’t help defenses in this stadium that has a retractable roof.

You can expect Sharps to fade any public moves, particularly if squares hit the favorite and drive the number up to five or six. This doesn’t seem likely. Sportsbooks themselves would be comfortable with a position against a publicly bet favorite.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY

Opening Line: Green Bay by 9, total of 46

Current Line: Green Bay by 7.5, total of 46

There are some stores that opened Green Bay at -8 rather than -9. The earliest on the board had the nine. Sharps hit the dog right away, encouraging stragglers to post an eight. Sharps have still bet the dog at +8, and may continue to do so all the way down to the key number of seven. There may not be a sense of urgency to do that for dog lovers here because the public may bet the favorite on game day. Remember, this is a night game, so there’s plenty of time for square action to influence the number.
Sharps are very much impressed with Adrian Peterson’s ability to control a game at the moment. And, they’re also skeptical about Green Bay’s pass protection. Minnesota just missed covering on this field a few weeks ago, and is playing better now overall than they were back then. The Vikings are the Sharp side at anything over a touchdown.

The total hasn’t moved even though the game is being played outdoors in cold weather. Sharps believe Green Bay is comfortable in these conditions. And, they’ve seen that the Vikings can put points on the board with their ground-based attack. If the possibility of precipitation enters the forecast, you will see some Under money hit the board. No Sharp interest at the number of 46 with the current forecast.

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE

Opening Line: Baltimore by 6.5, total of 46.5

Current Line: Baltimore by 7, total of 47

Normally Sharps prefer underdogs of more than a field goal in the playoffs because the games are likely to be competitive…and because sportsbooks typically shade lines higher based on public preferences. In this case, we had a line move UP anyway. If you were watching the lines this week, you know that the interest in Baltimore was keyed to the Ray Lewis announcement that this would be his final season. Sharps often “bet the news” when it happens just to have position before the public. If the Lewis announcement motivates the Ravens, they’re likely to play better than had been previously expected.

Is this the Sharp view?

Much of that Sharp money was more about position than sentiment for the Ravens. Sharps figured the public would buy into the motivation angle, possibly causing the line to move beyond the seven and set up middle possibilities around a key number.

*An early bet on Baltimore -6.5 can be bought back with Indy +7 even if the public doesn’t take the bait. Sharps who liked Indy can even come back over the top for more units than their initial investment.

*An early bet on Baltimore -6.5 can be really valuable if Indy +7.5 or higher becomes available. Sharps who like the dog can come back over the top, and would sweep all bets if the Ravens won by exactly seven.

There are some Sharps who are skeptical about Andrew Luck’s ability to avoid turnovers on the road. They’re sticking with Baltimore -6.5.

There’s no interest on the total yet. Weather is supposed to be relatively clear, with wind in the single digits in mph. Sharps would look at the Under if the forecast changes to something that would help defenses more.



SEATTLE at WASHINGTON

Opening Line: Seattle by 1.5, total of 45

Current Line: Seattle by 3, total of 46

This was the biggest Sharp move of the weekend in the NFL, with the Wise Guys hitting Seattle at the opener…then driving it all the way up to the key number. The lack of buy-back on Washington as a home dog at the key number tells you there’s a lot of support for the Seahawks. This is not shaping up as a tug-of-war situation between different factions of Sharps with the favorite at -2.5 and the dog at +3.

Oddsmakers knew the Sharps had great respect for Seattle. They thought opening the Seahawks as a road favorite would be enough to stem the tide of Sharp money. Turns out the line needed to be at a field goal.

Who will the public take here? Typically squares prefer the favorites. But, that may be tougher for them here because it’s a ROAD favorite laying points to a celebrated home quarterback. It’s possible that the public will come in on Washington before kickoff. And, since this is the last game of the weekend, it will be the most bet game of the weekend because of the additional lead-in time. We COULD see a tug-of-war between Sharps and squares if public sentiment is on the dog. The Wise Guys would gladly fade any move back to -2.5.

The best expectation is for a heavily bet game that sportsbooks hope doesn’t land exactly on Seattle by three.

The total has been bet up from 45 to 46 because weather conditions should be fine (the game’s not far from Baltimore!), and both offenses have established that they can move the ball with their exciting young quarterbacks. There are concerns about the field surface in Washington though, which has prevented a move any higher than 46 as of yet.

That’s how the sharps have been betting in the NFL.


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01/05/2013 03:40 PM
Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Wildcard Weekend
Four big games this weekend as the NFL playoffs officially get underway. We’re going to take a look in this report at what Sharps have been betting in all four games to this point in the week. We’ll also outline the best expectations for what Sharps would do on game day if public money moves any numbers before kickoff.

Let’s take the games in schedule order…

CINCINNATI at HOUSTON

Opening Line: Houston by 5, total of 44

Lowest Line: Houston by 4

Current Line: Houston by 4.5, total of 43

Games in the pocket between the three and the seven on the Vegas board sometimes take awhile to get settled because there’s no clear “percentage” play involving a key number. If betting action is dormant, sportsbooks are known to move the line a half point in either direction just to see if they get any nibbles. Sportsbooks can’t make money if nobody’s betting!

Generally speaking, Sharps aren’t enthusiastic about either team here. Those who preferred the dog took Cincinnati at the opener because they didn’t think slumping Houston would go up any higher than five. Those who don’t trust Cincinnati made small investments when the line dropped down to the four.

Sharps did prefer the Under at 44 because we have decent defenses on the field, and because Houston’s offense has slumped in recent weeks. They may not be any additional move downward because weather won’t help defenses in this stadium that has a retractable roof.

You can expect Sharps to fade any public moves, particularly if squares hit the favorite and drive the number up to five or six. This doesn’t seem likely. Sportsbooks themselves would be comfortable with a position against a publicly bet favorite.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY

Opening Line: Green Bay by 9, total of 46

Current Line: Green Bay by 7.5, total of 46

There are some stores that opened Green Bay at -8 rather than -9. The earliest on the board had the nine. Sharps hit the dog right away, encouraging stragglers to post an eight. Sharps have still bet the dog at +8, and may continue to do so all the way down to the key number of seven. There may not be a sense of urgency to do that for dog lovers here because the public may bet the favorite on game day. Remember, this is a night game, so there’s plenty of time for square action to influence the number.
Sharps are very much impressed with Adrian Peterson’s ability to control a game at the moment. And, they’re also skeptical about Green Bay’s pass protection. Minnesota just missed covering on this field a few weeks ago, and is playing better now overall than they were back then. The Vikings are the Sharp side at anything over a touchdown.

The total hasn’t moved even though the game is being played outdoors in cold weather. Sharps believe Green Bay is comfortable in these conditions. And, they’ve seen that the Vikings can put points on the board with their ground-based attack. If the possibility of precipitation enters the forecast, you will see some Under money hit the board. No Sharp interest at the number of 46 with the current forecast.

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE

Opening Line: Baltimore by 6.5, total of 46.5

Current Line: Baltimore by 7, total of 47

Normally Sharps prefer underdogs of more than a field goal in the playoffs because the games are likely to be competitive…and because sportsbooks typically shade lines higher based on public preferences. In this case, we had a line move UP anyway. If you were watching the lines this week, you know that the interest in Baltimore was keyed to the Ray Lewis announcement that this would be his final season. Sharps often “bet the news” when it happens just to have position before the public. If the Lewis announcement motivates the Ravens, they’re likely to play better than had been previously expected.

Is this the Sharp view?

Much of that Sharp money was more about position than sentiment for the Ravens. Sharps figured the public would buy into the motivation angle, possibly causing the line to move beyond the seven and set up middle possibilities around a key number.

*An early bet on Baltimore -6.5 can be bought back with Indy +7 even if the public doesn’t take the bait. Sharps who liked Indy can even come back over the top for more units than their initial investment.

*An early bet on Baltimore -6.5 can be really valuable if Indy +7.5 or higher becomes available. Sharps who like the dog can come back over the top, and would sweep all bets if the Ravens won by exactly seven.

There are some Sharps who are skeptical about Andrew Luck’s ability to avoid turnovers on the road. They’re sticking with Baltimore -6.5.

There’s no interest on the total yet. Weather is supposed to be relatively clear, with wind in the single digits in mph. Sharps would look at the Under if the forecast changes to something that would help defenses more.



SEATTLE at WASHINGTON

Opening Line: Seattle by 1.5, total of 45

Current Line: Seattle by 3, total of 46

This was the biggest Sharp move of the weekend in the NFL, with the Wise Guys hitting Seattle at the opener…then driving it all the way up to the key number. The lack of buy-back on Washington as a home dog at the key number tells you there’s a lot of support for the Seahawks. This is not shaping up as a tug-of-war situation between different factions of Sharps with the favorite at -2.5 and the dog at +3.

Oddsmakers knew the Sharps had great respect for Seattle. They thought opening the Seahawks as a road favorite would be enough to stem the tide of Sharp money. Turns out the line needed to be at a field goal.

Who will the public take here? Typically squares prefer the favorites. But, that may be tougher for them here because it’s a ROAD favorite laying points to a celebrated home quarterback. It’s possible that the public will come in on Washington before kickoff. And, since this is the last game of the weekend, it will be the most bet game of the weekend because of the additional lead-in time. We COULD see a tug-of-war between Sharps and squares if public sentiment is on the dog. The Wise Guys would gladly fade any move back to -2.5.

The best expectation is for a heavily bet game that sportsbooks hope doesn’t land exactly on Seattle by three.

The total has been bet up from 45 to 46 because weather conditions should be fine (the game’s not far from Baltimore!), and both offenses have established that they can move the ball with their exciting young quarterbacks. There are concerns about the field surface in Washington though, which has prevented a move any higher than 46 as of yet.

That’s how the sharps have been betting in the NFL.


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01/05/2013 03:46 PM
NFL Consensus Picks

January 5, 2013

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

4:30 PM Cincinnati +4 2650 49.39% Houston -4 2715 50.61% View View

8:00 PM Minnesota +9.5 3303 63.91% Green Bay -9.5 1865 36.09% View View


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Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

4:30 PM Cincinnati 42.5 Houston 2463 56.08% 1929 43.92% View View

8:00 PM Minnesota 45.5 Green Bay 2771 65.09% 1486 34.91% View View


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Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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01/05/2013 03:55 PM
Saturday, January 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 4:30 PM ET Cincinnati +4 500

Houston - Under 42.5 500
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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