cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
01/19/2013 08:41 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Baltimore at New England
The Patriots look to take advantage of a Baltimore team that is coming off a 38-35 OT win over Denver and is 0-3-1 ATS in its last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. New England is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 20

Game 301-302: San Francisco at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.495; Atlanta 135.119
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: Baltimore at New England (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.360; New England 146.945
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 8; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8); Under





NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Last six times #1 seed played #2 seed in NFC title game, #1 seed won, but dogs covered four of last five NFC title games overall. Over last five years, underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in this round. Atlanta is underdog at home despite 8-1 mark in Georgia Dome, with only loss in meaningless Week 17 game. Smith/Ryan combo got monkey off back with first playoff win last week; they have Falcons here for first time since 27-10 loss at Philly eight years ago. 49ers lost this game at home LY, but now have more mobile Kaepernick at QB-- he dominated game against Green Bay last week, running ball for 181 yards, passing for 263 after throwing an early pik-6. SF is 2-2 in domes this year, losing at Rams/Vikings, winning at Cardinals/Saints. Eight of last nine Niner games went over total, including last five in row; six of last eight Atlanta games stayed under.

Since 1990, #4 seeds are 6-1 in conference title games, with '08 Cardinals only team that was at home; #4 seeds are 4-0 SU at #2 seeds in this round. Patriots (+3) led 13-0 after first quarter, lost 31-30 to Ravens in Baltimore back in Week 3, in flagfest (24 accepted penalties/218 yards) where Baltimore gained total of 503 yards, with Flacco averaging 9.8 ypa less than 24 hours after WR Smith (6 catches, 127 yards) lost his brother in motorcycle accident. Game ended on FG by rookie PK Tucker, who replaced Cundiff after he missed tying FG at end of LY's AFC title game, won 23-20 by Patriots (-7). Ravens playing with emotion trying to get leader Lewis into Super Bowl in his last year playing. Last time same two teams played in same stadium in consecutive conference title games was in '78-'79, when Oilers lost twice in Pittsburgh. 12 of last 15 Patriot games went over.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
01/19/2013 08:43 PM

NFL Conference Championship betting cheat sheet

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (3.5, 48)

Versatile quarterbacks have given the Falcons nightmares this season. Carolina's Cam Newton threw for 502 yards with four TDs while rushing for 202 and two scores in two games against them in 2012. In last Sunday's 30-28 win over Seattle, Seahawks rookie signal-caller Russell Wilson passed for 385 yards with two TDs while running for 60 and a score on seven carries. Niners QB Colin Kaepernick rushed for a quarterback playoff-record 181 yards last week with a pair of touchdowns and overcame an early interception returned for a TD by throwing for 263 with two scores. Atlanta defensive end John Abraham, who will be one of the keys to keeping Kaepernick in the pocket, tweaked his ankle against the Seahawks and is listed as questionable for this week, though the Falcons expect him to play. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8.5, 51)

The AFC championship will feature the same teams from the year before for the first time in 25 years when the Patriots host the Ravens. The last three matchups have been decided by a total of seven points, including the Ravens' 31-30 victory in Baltimore in Week 3. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been sensational in the two playoff victories, throwing for 613 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. Flacco's the only QB in league history to reach the playoffs in each of his first five seasons and has torched the Patriots for 973 yards with seven TDs vs. two interceptions in the last three games. New England amassed a league-high 557 points during the regular season and had its sixth 40-point game last week. Tight end Rob Gronkowski re-injured his broken forearm early in last week's victory, depriving Brady of a target that has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his first 43 NFL games. The Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
01/20/2013 12:53 AM

Posting early i'll be on a plane to Honolulu for Pro Bowl Festivity Week and the game....I'll try to post my daily threads...the time change will throw me off for sure.....Good Luck !!

Sunday, January 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 3:00 PM ET San Francisco -3.5 500
Atlanta - Over 48.5 500

Baltimore - 6:30 PM ET New England -8 500 NBAB Game
New England - Under 51.5 500


NBAB = NEVER BET AGANIST BRADY !!

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
02/01/2013 01:19 PM

SBXLVII - Betting Update

January 29, 2013

Props Galore

The darling of the prop season this year is San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick. People can’t get enough of the running quarterback who can throw equally as deadly, and the sports books have met the demand by offering a prop on just about everything he could possibly do in the Super Bowl. Total passing yards: 235.5. Total rushing yards: 48.5. William Hill sports books lead the way with 23 different Kaepernick props.

William Hill books also did a nice little contest for the public to get involved with asking bettors to send in their own prop. The winner was 49ers fan Mike Smyth who wanted to see a prop asking whether or not 49ers backup QB Alex Smith would take a snap. William Hill posted No -700, YES +500. For his efforts, he was awarded a $100 bet on the Super Bowl. Way to go, Mike!

Where’s The Line Going to Go?

It’s hard to gauge how the final wave of action will come in because we should see 90 percent of the overall Super Bowl action begin playing over the weekend. The first wave saw lots of Ravens action, likely because everyone was so impressed by their win against at New England. That was last Sunday night when the line first came out where all the +5’s and 4.5’s were gobbled up.

But then things started to simmer down with equal action, and then to some degree, a shade towards the 49ers. Most sports books -- other than Wynn and William Hill -- went to 49ers -3.5, but on Friday, Coast Resorts went back to -4. On Sunday, Caesars also made the leap back to -4.

However, the most surprising move Sunday came up north at the Peppermill where they dropped the 49ers to -4. They started at -6.5 with intentions of staying high because of all the 49ers money expected in 49ers country, but obviously they couldn’t wait it out and made the decision to move.

"Our initial goal was to try and stay about a half-point above what Las Vegas was doing,” said Terry Cox, sports book director at the Peppermill. “That strategy worked very well for us in the NFC Championship where we had mostly 49ers money laying 4.5-points, instead of 4 like most had (49ers won 28-24). But we got to the point where the money dictated a move here and it was time to go.”

My first thought was that underdog money would come in the normal tradition of the Super Bowl. In the regular season, you can’t get bettors to take an underdog, but all of a sudden when the Super Bowl rolls around, they’re all over the ‘dog. And for the most part, they’ve been correct -- covering four of the last five Super Bowls and eight of the last 11.

If I had to guess, I think that final wave of action will still be weighted with Ravens money, making it probable that we might see some 3’s pop up by kickoff.

Who will the star of the game be?

This depends on who you think will win the game. I haven’t wavered from my initial thoughts of the Ravens winning in a high- scoring game, and if that happens, the main culprit for success would be Ravens QB Joe Flacco. In three playoff games thus far, Flacco has tossed eight touchdown passes and hasn’t thrown an interception. He’s averaged 284 yards passing over those three games and you could argue that he’s been in his best groove of the season.

That groove could be in jeopardy with the week off. We’ve seen over the years how flat some of the No. 1 and 2 seeds fare with the week off when they have to play a wild card winner, but I think Flacco will be okay. The only concern may be playing indoors. The Ravens lost their only indoor game this season, 43-13, at Houston in October, and they come off of frigid wins at Denver and New England. Maybe the temperature will be too nice for Flacco.

Besides the run Flacco’s on, one of the other main reasons to like him is the 49ers defense. Once held in high regards as one of the NFL’s best defenses, the tempo created by Kaepernick has put more pressure on the defense and they haven’t been as good. Consider that the 49ers defense gave up more than 340 yards in four of their last five games. The only team they held under 300 yards over that span was the pitiful Cardinals offense. In Week 15 they gave up 388 yards to the Patriots, 346 to Seattle in Week 17, 352 to the Packers in the divisional playoff, and 477 to the Falcons in the NFC championship game.

Teams are finding ways to beat the 49ers defense and it’s usually been downfield which has helped produce games going OVER the total in nine of their last 10 games. One thing Flacco does very well is throw the deep ball.

So needless to say, I find several of the props regarding yardage and TD passes with Flacco attractive. At the same time, if Flacco has success, that means the recipients of his passes should do well. That means Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta could be good plays OVER on some of their props. The LVH has a prop that pays +340 (Bet $100 to win $340) if Smith scores a TD in the first half. If you like the game high scoring like I do, then that becomes a distinct possibility.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
02/01/2013 01:23 PM

Bettin' the Super Props

January 30, 2013

Super Props – Let The Games Begin

Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans kicks off Feb. 3 when Baltimore meets San Francisco with both teams looking to keep their all-time undefeated mark in Super Bowl games in tact.

Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet like partners at a local gay pride parade.

It's important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the odds maker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent 'juice' edge in his favor. Thus, it's critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create added action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, director of Race and Sports at the LVH Super Book in Las Vegas.

Furthermore, it's important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay this is the only NFL game of the season where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

Here are some tips on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year's Super Bowl.

The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It's fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off.

Until last season when New England won the flip, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip each of the previous 14 years in a row!

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year's coin flip: 50/50.

Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 25 times in 46 previous Super Bowl games, with Eli Manning carting home the award last year.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP's.

Baltimore’s Joe Flacco and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick lead the charge this year. In head-to-head proposition competition the LVH favors Flacco by 12 1/2 passing yards over Kaepernick. Flacco is also listed with 3 1/2 more completions than Kaepernick, while total TD’s passes among the two is offered a ‘pick’.

Interestingly, the Niners are -57 1/2 rushing yards over the Ravens for the game at the LVH.

That’s largely due to the groundswell of support for San Francisco since Kaepernick took over as its starting quarterback nine games ago. In those nine games the Niners have averaged 159 rushing yards per contest. Baltimore has averaged 151 rushing yards per game over the same period of time.

When Tackles Are Not Tackles and Penalties Are Not Penalties

When betting on the over/under number of tackles it's important to know that sacks are not recorded as a tackle.

In addition, propositions involving penalties are good only if the penalty is accepted.

Team Scoring Tendencies

Sharp edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played this season for both squads. The final number is average points scored and allowed in each quarter for each team.

Note: the Ravens have played 19 games this campaign, the Niners 18.

1Q – Baltimore: 102-87 / 5.37-4.58
1Q – San Francisco: 64-78 / 3.56-4.33

2Q – Baltimore: 132-126 / 6.95–6.63
2Q – San Francisco: 141-84 / 7.83-4.67

3Q – Baltimore: 119-96 / 6.26-5.05
3Q – San Francisco: 114-58 / 6.33-3.22

4Q – Baltimore: 129-89 / 6.79-4.68
4Q – San Francisco: 151-105 / 8.39-5.83

Notice the Niners scoring woes in the first stanza and its ability to light the scoreboard during the final quarter. The Ravens also start slow but pick up the pace at a fairly even keel thereafter.

Here’s the same look at the two teams in games versus fellow playoff teams this season.

Note: the Ravens have played 9 games against playoff squads this season, the Niners 7.

1Q – Baltimore: 41-56 / 4.56-6.22
1Q – San Francisco: 20-48 / 2.86-6.86

2Q – Baltimore: 59-81 / 6.56–9.00
2Q – San Francisco: 63-58 / 9.00-8.29

3Q – Baltimore: 55-53 / 6.17-5.89
3Q – San Francisco: 52-17/ 7.43-2.43

4Q – Baltimore: 82-38 / 9.11-4.22
4Q – San Francisco: 48-60 / 6.86-8.57

Hmm. Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition, while managing to bounce back and dominate in the 4th and final quarter.

On the flip side San Francisco has been outscored in the 1st and 4th quarters but, thanks to a super stingy 3rd quarter defensive effort, has come out on top in the middle stanzas.

Buyer beware.

Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVII is San Francisco RB Frank Gore, with teammate WR Michael Crabtree and Baltimore RB Ray Rice a whisker off.

Leading the next wave is San Francisco QB Kaepernick and Baltimore WR Anquan Boldin, along with Niners WR Vernon Davis and Ravens WR Torrey Smith.

Over the previous 46 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 19 times. New York WR Victor Cruz found the end zone first for the Giants against the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI last year – but not before the Giants were on the scoreboard first with a Tom Brady safety called for intentional grounding in the end zone.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular wagering option.

The LVH features no less than 38 cross-sports opportunities ranging from Kaepernick’s total passing yards -46.5 versus the L.A. Clippers and Boston Celtics total points scored to Flacco’s completions +0.5 versus Kevin Garnett’s points and rebounds combined.

College hoops gets in to the fray with the Big East basketball teams (Providence, Villanova, Marquette, Louisville, South Florida and Connecticut) combining lay -45.5 points up against the Ravens total net yards. FYI: the six hoops teams were averaging 68 PPG, or 414 total PPG combined) on the season entering Tuesday’s action of Super Bowl week). The Ravens have averaged 364 total YPG this season.

Golfers are offered 4 cross-props (that just sounds wrong), the most popular of which is Sergio Garcia’s 4th round score on Super Bowl Sunday (-1.5) versus Smith’s receiving yards.

Soccer fanatics can pit Lionel Messi’s goals (-0.5) up against Gore’s touchdowns.

Hockey fans can get in the game, too, with Sidney Crosby’s goals a pick ‘em against Kaepernick’s touchdown passes.

And on and on it goes. Where it stops only Jay Kornegay knows.

One thing is for sure. This will mark the 9th straight year that the team with the best record in the league will not win the Super Bowl.

That’s a lock.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
02/01/2013 01:28 PM

Total Talk - Super Bowl XLVII

February 1, 2013

Postseason Recap

Gamblers watched the 'under' go 122-117-2 in the regular season, which is pretty much a wash. In the postseason, we can say the same as the ‘over/under’ has gone 5-5 in the 10 games. In the conference title games, the ‘over’ was never in doubt in the NFC Championship and the ‘under’ in the AFC Championship was helped with Patriots’ offense getting blanked in the second-half.

Line Analysis

The Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) opened the total at 49 and it was knocked down immediately. It currently sits at 47 1/2. CRIS, one of the biggest offshore betting shops, also opened at 49 and they’re a tad lower at 47. Why the drop?

VegasInsider.com pro football expert Paul Bovi explains, “The opening line was likely in part reflective of a preconceived notion that the public would lean to the high side, as is typical of most Super Bowls. The early move, regardless of the outcome, certainly captured value based on what can only be considered an inflated number, especially given that these teams engaged in a 22-point slug fest only a little more than a year ago in which there were a mere 423 yards combined.”

Baltimore beat San Francisco 16-6 last season on Thanksgiving Day, which was the primetime game on the holiday slate. The closing total of 40 was never threatened. The 49ers couldn’t do anything on offense but they also had QB Alex Smith starting under center.

Regardless of what happens Sunday, it’s safe to say that the books will probably never have a Super Bowl total listed in the thirties ever again. However, next year’s game will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Super Bowl Trends and Venue

Overall, the ‘under’ has gone 23-22 in the Super Bowl and that includes a 6-4 mark in the last 10 years. This will be the 10th time that New Orleans will host the Super Bowl the first since 2002. In the first nine games from “The Big Easy” the ‘under’ has gone 6-3. Make a note that the games in 1970, 1972 and 1975 were played at Tulane Stadium.


Super Bowl History
Super Bowl Year Total Score Result
XXXVI 2002 53 New England 20 St. Louis 17 Under
XXXI 1997 49 Green Bay 35 New England 21 Over
XXIV 1990 48 San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Over
XX 1986 37.5 Chicago 46 New England 10 Over
XV 1981 37.5 Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10 Under
XII 1978 39 Dallas 27 Denver 10 Under
IX 1975 33 Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6 Under
VI 1972 34 Dallas 24 Miami 3 Under
IV 1970 39 Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Under


This will be the 16th Super Bowl that has been played indoors or with a closed roof. In the first 15 games, total players have watched the ‘under’ go 9-6 and that includes a 3-1 run of low-scoring affairs.

Parlay Probabilities

Since it’s the last pro football game of the season to bet, a lot of gamblers like to press their bets and try to cash both the side and the total with a two-team parlay at 12/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260).


Super Bowl Parlay History Combination
Combination Win Percentage
Favorite-Over 15 34%
Favorite-Under 11 25%
Underdog-Under 9 20%
Underdog-Over 7 16%
Push-Over 1 2.5%
Push-Under 1 2.5%


Looking at the above, you can see that the Favorite-Over combination has been the most profitable but that parlay hasn’t been cashing like it did in the eighties and nineties. Green Bay’s 31-25 win over Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV was the last Favorite-Over combination to hit. Prior to that, you would have to rewind to 2001 when Baltimore beat the N.Y. Giants 34-7 in Super Bowl XXXV.

The Underdog-Over combination has only happened seven times, which is the least, and gamblers should note that Tampa Bay was the last ‘dog to win straight up in a Super Bowl where the total went ‘over’ the number. In case you forgot, the Buccaneers blasted the Raiders 48-21.

San Francisco is 5-0 in its five Super Bowl appearances and it’s posted a 4-1 mark against the spread. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games.

Inside the Numbers

San Francisco has seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight and nine of its last 10 games, rather easily too. The 49ers offense put up 45 and 28 points in their two playoff games and the once highly regarded defense has surrendered 31 and 24 in those contests.

Despite scoring 24, 38 and 28 in the playoffs, Baltimore has watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in those games. The Ravens’ defense does a lot of bending but it hasn’t broke lately. In the postseason, the unit has allowed nine scores, five field goals and four touchdowns. Overall, the Ravens have seen the ‘over’ go 11-8 this season but the ‘under’ has produced a 6-3-1 mark on the road.

Head coach John Harbaugh and the Ravens defense have played well with time to prepare. Since he started in 2008, the team has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with a bye week. In those games, the Ravens allowed 10, 7, 10, 14, 13 and 15 points.

QB Edge

The 49ers have been a different team with Colin Kaepernick and Paul Bovi believes the second-year standout from Nevada can be the difference. He explained, “Kapernick's mobility lends an edge to the Niners, as the Ravens will have to defend the edges much like the Falcons did by eliminating and/or minimizing man coverage. Baltimore has faced only two multidimensional QBs this year in Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III. And it could be argued that he is more elusive than the former while RG3 was unable to finish the game due to a knee injury.”

The Eagles posted 486 yards of offense, but Vick only posted 34 yards on the ground. The Redskins also had a great day, racking up 423 total yards against the Ravens. RG3 only ran for 34 yards and he was sacked three times but Washington running back Alfred Morris took advantage of the Ravens focus on RG3 and scampered for 129 yards on 23 carries.

If you look at Kaepernick’s performances against non-divisional teams, San Francisco has posted 32, 31, 27, 41, 45 and 28 points. The 49ers’ defense certainly helped the youngster out in a couple games, in particular road battles at the Saints and Patriots. Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the club is 6-0 both SU and 5-0-1 ATS and the ‘over’ cashed in all six.

Fearless Predictions

Heading into Super Bowl XLVII, we’re ahead $780 based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end, we wish you luck and hope to see you next season!

Best Total: Over 47 San Francisco-Baltimore

Best Team Total: Over 26 San Francisco

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
02/01/2013 01:32 PM

Brothers collide in Super Bowl XLVII on Sunday

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-6)

vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-4-1)


Super Bowl XLVII - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3 - 6:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -3.5, Total: 47.5

Although the stories in the mainstream media since the conference championship games have focused on the Harbaugh brothers matching wits on the sidelines, Super Bowl XLVII on Sunday promises to be one of the more interesting match-ups in recent Super Bowl history when the Ravens and 49ers meet in New Orleans.

For all intents and purposes, both of these teams are Super Bowl newbies. LB Ray Lewis was the Super Bowl XXXV MVP, but even longtime teammate S Ed Reed was two seasons away from his rookie year when the Ravens won their only title. The Ravens won the first Harbaugh Bowl, on Thanksgiving night 2011 in Baltimore, 16-6. It wasn’t a beautiful game, with each team kicking a pair of field goals over the first three quarters. A Joe Flacco-to-Dennis Pitta TD capped off a long drive to open the fourth quarter and seal the game. The Niners couldn’t generate anything on offense, gaining just 170 yards on the night. Niners RB Frank Gore had just 39 yards on 14 carries, while now-backup QB Alex Smith threw for just 140 yards and an INT, and was sacked a whopping nine times (three by Terrell Suggs).

Can the Ravens keep this game close with the possibility of a huge upset? For the answer, connect to Super Bowl XLVII Best Bets Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks -- ATS, Over/Under and Props -- for the big game. So far during the postseason, the experts are a collective 14-4-1 ATS (78%) and 10-4 (71%) on Totals. StatFox Brian is 5-0 ATS and 3-2 in Totals, Scott is 3-0 ATS and 3-2 in Totals, and Gary 3-0 ATS and 4-0 in Totals.

Baltimore came into this season with plans to put the game in QB Joe Flacco’s hands. It was an up-and-down year, but Flacco has stepped up big in the postseason, throwing eight touchdown passes without an interception. The Ravens offense will have to prove they can move the ball on the Niners’ top-notch defense. They got past Denver thanks to some big plays, and last week in New England they were going nowhere until Aqib Talib, the Patriots’ only NFL-caliber cornerback, went down with an injury. Defensively the Niners haven’t been as dominant as they were in 2011, but they’ll be by far the best defense Flacco has faced during the playoffs. The Flacco Ravens have had no shortage of postseason success away from Charm City. Since Flacco’s rookie year, they’re 7-3 ATS (6-4 SU) in road postseason games.

The Ravens defense hasn’t really shut anyone down this year, and they’re allowing 415.0 YPG in the postseason, but they have been tightening up in the red zone. They allowed the NFL’s second-lowest red zone TD percentage during the regular season (43.4%). They’ve been even stingier in the postseason, allowing just four touchdowns and 37 points on 10 red-zone trips.

49ers QB Colin Kaepernick is this game’s x-factor. He was on the sideline for last year's loss to Baltimore, but adds another dimension to the San Francisco offense. He’s been sacked just 13 times in nine starts, and after rushing for an NFL quarterback record 181 yards in his playoff debut, he was surgical as a passer in a comeback win at Atlanta (16-for-21, 233 yards, no turnovers). The Ravens saw mobile quarterbacks twice this year, and lost to both of them. They forced Michael Vick to turn it over three times in a November matchup, but also allowed 371 passing yards in a 24-23 loss at Philadelphia. In Washington in Week 14, Robert Griffin III threw for 242 yards on only 26 attempts, and while Baltimore held him to 34 rushing yards, they allowed 179 that afternoon in a 31-28 overtime loss.

In Kaepernick’s nine starts (including two postseason starts), the Niners have scored touchdowns on 51.2% of their red-zone trips. But they’ve really heated up in the postseason, scoring 9 TD in 12 red-zone chances. Keeping San Francisco from finishing drives will be especially key considering the recent struggles of veteran kicker David Akers. The lefty is just 12-for-20 on all field goals since Thanksgiving, including four misses from inside 40. Considering how evenly matched these teams are, a shank from Akers could very well spell the difference.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
02/01/2013 01:35 PM

Super Bowl XLVII action report: Some books move to 3-point spread

Super Bowl XLVII is just one week away. While action has been hot and heavy at sportsbooks online and in Nevada, the bulk of the bets will come over the next seven days.

We talk with Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, Aron Black of Bet365.com, and oddsmakers at online book BetDSI.com about the Super Bowl odds as the week-long countdown begins in New Orleans.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Most sportsbooks are dealing the favored 49ers at -3.5. However, some markets have stayed high with San Francisco -4 while others have gone as low as -3. But if you’re going to grab the Niners at a field-goal spread expect to pay a hefty price. Juice is as high as -125 on the short spread.

One of the books dealing a field-goal spread is Bet365.com, which moved to -3 after taking one-sided money on Baltimore since opening.

"Yeah, the dreaded break to the key number. Not a decision taken easily," Black told Covers. "Since the move we have taken some more San Francisco money. I think many were waiting for the better price on the flat three. We may have to go back to 3.5. But for now, we have made the move and we shall see whether it was right or not."

The LVH Superbook is currently dealing San Francisco at -3.5 and has begun to take some big bets on the Niners after a week of one-sided Baltimore action. According to Kornegay the bet count is balancing out and he doesn’t expect their spread to shrink before kickoff on Feb. 3.

“I doubt it,” Kornegay told Covers about a move to -3. “We’re expecting more San Francisco money this week, especially in the last 48 hours. If it goes anywhere, it’ll go back up to -4.”

As for moneyline wagering, a flood of bets on the Ravens to win straight up has pushed the price on San Francisco from -205 to as low as -159 in some markets. BetDSI.com is currently dealing the 49ers as -175 moneyline favorites, which is drawing the attention of wiseguys.

“The majority of action that has been wagered has come from the public at this time,” BetDSI.com told Covers. “The only sharp action that has been put in play has been on the San Francisco moneyline.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
02/01/2013 01:36 PM

NFL Super Bowl XLVII betting trends and notes

Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death. Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl.

In addition, this game marks Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis’ last game in his NFL career. The mercurial future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl XXXV MVP will be performing his final dance at the Superdome on February 3.

As such, Super Bowl XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.

Let’s take a look at how Baltimore and San Francisco arrived to New Orleans and what history says about their chances of hoisting the trophy.

All results are ATS (against the spread) unless noted otherwise.

Oh, brother

Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has been at his best when playing with a week or more of rest in his NFL career, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, John is 30-12 SU against teams he managed to defeat in a previous meeting.

The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

Under his lead, San Francisco is an eye-opening 25-1-1 SU in games in which it rushes the ball 25 or more times a game.

In addition, the Harbaughs bring smiles to the face of over players with Jim going 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

Warning: 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.

Advantage: Even


Commonality

These two teams squared off against two common opponents on 2012, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.

The Ravens were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the total yardage stats by an average 127 yards per game.

The Niners went 1-1 SU and ATS despite being out-yarded in both games by an average 86 yards per game.

In head-to-head games against fellow playoff squads this season, Baltimore went 4-3 SU and ATS and 3-4 ITS (In The Stats), while San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS.

Advantage: Ravens


Not so sweet favorites

The sporting public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a severe case of betting diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.

Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

FYI: Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.

Advantage: Ravens


Conference call

Much like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years.

However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

Ironically this game marks the seventh year in a row that the NFC representative squared off against the AFC East in its designated non-conference clashes.

This is only the second time in the last 11 years the AFC is the underdog.

Advantage: Niners


Statistically speaking

Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense is 11th best in the league while it’s 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.

San Francisco owns a Top-10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG On defense.

From Game 9 out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.

Advantage: Even


Defense rules… most of the time

It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top-10 ranked defenses.

What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

Advantage: Niners

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23790 Followers:32
02/01/2013 01:38 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Baltimore vs. San Francisco
The 49ers look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 non-conference games. San Francisco is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the 49ers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 3

Game 101-102: Baltimore vs. San Francisco (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.325; San Francisco 142.495
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 44
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 3

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BALTIMORE (13 - 6) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 4 - 1) - 2/3/2013, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, February 3

Baltimore vs. San Francisco, 6:30 ET CBS
Baltimore: 6-0 Under away off BB ATS wins
San Francisco: 10-2 ATS with a total of 42.5 to 49 points




NFL

Super Bowl XLVII

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Trend Report
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6:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: