12/30/2012 10:16 AM
Matchup: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots minus-10
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Patriots
Public perception: The Patriots must win to have a chance at a first-round bye (coupled with a loss by either Houston or Denver). The Dolphins are still not seeing much public support.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys know the Patriots have failed to cover three of their last four games, while the Dolphins have covered four of their last five.
Tuley's Take: Included in both teams' ATS runs is the Dolphins' 23-16 cover four weeks ago. Even if the Dolphins don't stay close the entire game, the back door could be wide open if the Patriots begin resting starters should the Texans win and the Broncos pull away early from the Chiefs. The pick: Dolphins.