12/30/2012 10:42 AM
Matchup: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Texans minus-7
Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Colts
Public perception: This is surprising since the Colts are locked into the AFC's No. 5 seed, while the Texans must win to secure the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. (A surprise is right; other bet-tracking sites show that nearly 60 percent of wagers are on the Colts.)
Wiseguys' view: The Texans may need this, but it's hard to back them as they've failed to cover two of their last three and four of their last six -- and one of those covers was against the Colts, though they needed a late meaningless field goal to do it.
Tuley's Take: The Colts are saying all the right things about playing to win, and this looks like one of those games in which they might actually do that. However, they may not play their starters the full game; if a player comes up gimpy, reality could set in that they're jeopardizing their playoff chances. The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans).