12/23/2012 11:08 AM
Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers minus-3
Public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Bucs
Public perception: This is the biggest surprise to me of the week with the public on the Bucs over 60 percent despite their 41-0 loss to the Saints, plus the Rams are the one with a chance (albeit slim) to get a wild-card slot.
Wiseguys' view: Jeff Fisher has long been a great underdog coach for sharp bettors, and the Rams are 9-3 ATS as dogs this year (0-2 as the favorite).
Tuley's Take: The Bucs are 0-2-2 ATS in the last four games and no longer the best spread team as they're now 8-4-2 and have been passed by the Redskins and Seahawks at 10-4. However, I'm not confident the Rams will take advantage of the Bucs' poor defense and Tampa Bay might play more loosely with no pressure on. The pick: Pass (pool play: Rams).