12/23/2012 12:07 PM
PATRIOTS @ JAGUARS, 1 P.M. ET
Open: New England -14.5
Current: New England -14
Public Betting %: 80% on New England
What they see: We joke all the time that “you can’t set the line high enough” for public bettors in these types of matchups, but it’s not technically true. If this line was New England -49.5, at least 55 percent of bettors would be all over Jacksonville.
Analysis: There have only been 25 previous NFL matchups since 1989 where the home team was catching at least two touchdowns, and the underdog has won only three times (10-14-1 ATS).
The Patriots, of course, are coming off the home loss to San Francisco on Sunday Night Football, and since Bill Belichick arrived in New England he’s 35-20 ATS (63.6%) following a loss. Coming off a home loss, he’s a whopping 15-5 ATS (75%). So, clearly, Belichick knows how to get his team’s attention after they underperform.
The problem? It’s a little more difficult to get players’ attention when they’re going up against a team as awful as the Jaguars. And for those of you saying, “There’s no way New England doesn’t crush a team like Jacksonville,” does a Week 2 home loss to Arizona ring any bells?
We’re staying far, far away from this game. (Although, gun to our head, we’d probably be as “square” as possible and take the Patriots.)