coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:34 AM

ABOUT THE SAINTS (6-8, 7-7 ATS): Quarterback Drew Brees leads the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and 4,335 passing yards. He needs 665 yards to reach the 5,000-mark for the third time in his career. Brees threw for 307 yards and four TDs against Tampa Bay, giving him an NFL-record 17 games with at least 300 yards and four scoring strikes. Darren Sproles has been a major contributor out of the backfield since 2011 as he leads all NFL running backs with 146 catches and 13 receiving touchdowns in that span.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-6, 6-8 ATS): Cornerback Morris Claiborne expects to play Sunday after missing last week's victory over Pittsburgh with a concussion. Running back DeMarco Murray also expects to face the Saints despite missing practice on Wednesday. Dallas is 3-0 since Murray returned from a foot injury that shelved him for six contests. Quarterback Tony Romo has thrown 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions over the last six games. Linebackers DeMarcus Ware (11.5) and Anthony Spencer (10) are the first pair of Cowboys to reach double digits in sacks in the same season since 2007.

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:36 AM

Lambeau Field end zones being swept for snow and frost right now, 23 degrees in Green Bay.

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:36 AM

J.J. Watt: 19.5 sacks. Only 2 AFC players have had 20 sacks in season- Mark Gastineau (1984) and Derrick Thomas (1990)

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:37 AM

Minnesota WR Percy Harvin is out. DE Brian Robison, DB Chris Cook are probable

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:37 AM

Matchup: New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Patriots minus-14.5
Public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Patriots

Public perception: The public knows that you're supposed to bet Patriots coach Bill Belichick off a loss, though it's not as strong as it used to be. Still, the Jaguars didn't inspire any confidence with their 24-3 loss to the Dolphins.

Wiseguys' view: As stated in Week 12, home underdogs of 8 or more points were 22-2 ATS over the last three years. The Chiefs covered plus-10.5 against the Broncos that week, though the Raiders failed at plus-10 in Week 14 in a 26-13 loss to the Broncos, but the trend is still 23-3 ATS. The sharps aren't going to lay that many points.

Tuley's Take: This has become an automatic play for me. And as bad as the Jags have played most of the time, I'm encouraged by their two games as double-digit dogs as they covered against both the Packers and Texans, so they get up for these matchups. The pick: Jaguars.

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:37 AM

Brees was unstoppable last Sunday, completing 26-of-39 passes (67%) for 307 yards, 4 TD (to 4 different receivers) and 0 INT. That was quite an improvement from his previous two games (both on the road) when he threw just 1 TD pass and 7 INT.

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:39 AM

NFL teams off consecutive SU & ATS division wins are 34-70 ATS as favorites of 3+ points vs. .499 or worse opposition

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:40 AM

Oakland at Carolina (-9.5, 46)

The Panthers, who are just 2-5 at home, are attempting to end the campaign on a high note as they seek their third consecutive victory. Quarterback Cam Newton has been outstanding over the last four weeks. The Auburn product leads the league with a 113.1 passer rating in that span with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Raiders snapped a six-game slide last Sunday with a 15-0 triumph over Kansas City in their home finale. Sunday's shutout against the Chiefs was the team's first blanking since 2002. Sebastian Janikowski provided all the offense, kicking a season-high five field goals. Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:40 AM

New England at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
New England: 15-5 ATS in road games
Jacksonville: 1-8 ATS off BB Unders

coleryan Posts:11961 Followers:19
12/23/2012 10:42 AM

REMINDER: NFL teams in "must-win" situations are 51-89-4 ATS vs. teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention in L/2 weeks