12/23/2012 10:17 AM
Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins minus-4.5
Public consensus pick: 54 percent picked Dolphins
Public perception: The Dolphins are getting up to 60 percent of the tickets at other bet-tracking sites, probably just due to recent form with Dolphins covering three of their last four. (And they should have covered against the 49ers, too.) The Bills did win the previous meeting, 19-14.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps know that teams are not as bad as they look on their worst day, and not as good as they look at their best. So, in all sports, it's usually not a bad bet to take a team to bounce back from a blowout loss like the Bills had in their 50-17 drubbing by the Seahawks.
Tuley's Take: I lost with the Bills last week and the Dolphins beat my Jaguars' play as well. I haven't been able to figure out either team all season. The pick: Pass (pool play: Bills, but I won't put up an argument if anyone likes the Fish).