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Spread: Dolphins minus-4.5
Public consensus pick: 54 percent picked Dolphins
Public perception: The Dolphins are getting up to 60 percent of the tickets at other bet-tracking sites, probably just due to recent form with Dolphins covering three of their last four. (And they should have covered against the 49ers, too.) The Bills did win the previous meeting, 19-14.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps know that teams are not as bad as they look on their worst day, and not as good as they look at their best. So, in all sports, it's usually not a bad bet to take a team to bounce back from a blowout loss like the Bills had in their 50-17 drubbing by the Seahawks.
Tuley's Take: I lost with the Bills last week and the Dolphins beat my Jaguars' play as well. I haven't been able to figure out either team all season. The pick: Pass (pool play: Bills, but I won't put up an argument if anyone likes the Fish).
Ravens QB Joe Flacco has also had much better success on his home turf (96.8 rating, 13 TD, 5 INT) than on the road (75.3 rating, 7 TD, 5 INT). However, his past two home games (both losses) have been shaky, as he's completed just 48.6% of his passes for 6.0 YPA, 3 TD and 2 INT.
Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a triumph in the Motor City. The Falcons bounced back from a 10-point road loss to Carolina in a big way as they recorded a dominating 34-0 home win over the New York Giants last week. Atlanta ran more than it passed for just the second time this season, gaining 125 yards on 35 carries while attempting just 28 passes. Detroit is looking to snap its six-game losing streak. Things hit rock bottom for the Lions last Sunday, when they suffered a 38-10 loss in Arizona to the Cardinals. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall.