12/16/2012 10:31 AM
Every week we showcase the picks from Dave Tuley---here we go...
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Spread: Packers minus-3
Public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Packers
Public perception: The public sees this as two teams heading in opposite directions. The Packers have recovered from a slow start and have passed the Bears in the NFC North, so the public is lining up to back the ever-popular Pack per usual.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps view this as a much more even matchup. In fact, the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll that I put together on Tuesday for ESPN Insider has these teams only 2.5 points different in the power ratings and the Bears as one of three plays this week when their home-field advantage is taken into effect.
Tuley's Take: I would love to make a case for the home underdog here, but a few things scare me. I'm not a big "revenge" handicapper and would usually rather have the team that proved it can beat the other in the most-recent matchup. The Packers dominated the Bears back in Week 2 and the two teams' recent form doesn't give me confidence that the Bears' offensive line can keep Jay Cutler safe enough to keep them in the game. The pick: Pass (pool play: Packers).