12/09/2012 12:24 PM
Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals minus-3
Public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Bengals
Public perception: Both teams have climbed into the playoff hunt. Both teams have frustrated bettors. Both are candidates for the "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" award, as they can look like fine, upstanding citizens one week and monstrous the next, especially the Cowboys, which are 4-8 ATS.
Wiseguys' view: These teams are viewed as pretty much equal; the Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll that I compile on Tuesdays has the Bengals rated just a half-point better than the Cowboys. There are some indications that this line could move to 3.5 by the weekend, and that's when you can expect the wiseguys to jump in on the Cowboys.
Tuley's Take: I bet the Bengals more earlier in the season when they were underdogs more often (4-3 ATS as 'dogs). I don't like them as much as a favorite, though they have covered their past two as chalk over the Chiefs and Raiders. The pick: Pass (pool play: Bengals, though I would flip to the Cowboys at plus-3.5, which shows how lukewarm my support is).