12/16/2012 12:19 AM
Total Talk - Week 15
December 15, 2012
Week 14 Recap
The total numbers on the season have been pretty even and last week’s results were no different. The ‘over/under’ produced an even 8-8 mark but once again, a lot of total players were given early holiday gifts due to second-half fireworks – again! There were five games that saw 30 or more points scored in the final two quarters and two of those contests had 40-plus points posted. When the Jets and Browns put up 17 and 20 points respectively in a half, it should open up your eyes. If you bet the ‘over’ in the second-half blindly last week, you would’ve gone 11-5 (69%). Following this column all season, you shouldn’t be surprised since this has been a reoccurring theme. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 105-103-1.
The smart money went 1-3 last week and easily could’ve been 3-1 or 2-2 if it wasn’t for some late explosions that we talked about above. Here are the line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday evening.
N.Y. Giants at Atlanta: Line opened 52 and dropped to 50 ½
Indianapolis at Houston: Line opened 49 and dropped to 47 ½
Carolina at San Diego: Line opened 46 and dropped to 44 ½
Pittsburgh at Dallas: Line opened 44 and jumped to 45 1/2
San Francisco at New England: Line opened 48 and dropped to 46 ½
This week, the NFL International Series continues with Buffalo and Seattle going head-to-head at the Rogers Center from Toronto. I feel both the side in Seattle (-5.5) and the total (43.5) are inflated for this matchup. This is a must-win spot for the ‘Hawks and definitely a look-ahead with San Francisco on deck in Week 16, which could be for the division lead. Buffalo has played much better recently, especially on defense. The unit has given up 14, 20, 18 and 15, which helped the ‘under’ go 3-1 during this span. Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its last eight battles after the first five games of the season went ‘under.’ I do believe quarterback Russell Wilson has improved as a rookie but the ‘Hawks haven’t seen a total this high since their Week 3 affair against Green Bay (45). The NFL has tried hard to push their product in Canada and unfortunately for the league, the games have been absolutely ugly. The sample size isn’t that large, but all four of the games played in Toronto have all gone ‘under’ the number.
2008: Miami 16 Buffalo 3 – Under 43
2009: N.Y. Jets 19 Buffalo 13 – Under 37
2010: Chicago 22 Buffalo 19 – Under 41.5
2011: Washington 0 Buffalo 23 – Under 46.5
On the season, the ‘over’ stands at 15-9 (63%) in the second meeting between divisional teams. Total players are looking at three more this Sunday and one of them has the highest number on the board.
Green Bay at Chicago: The ‘under’ has been a solid investment when these teams clash and it hit in the first encounter when Green Bay defeated Chicago 23-10 at home on Sept. 13. Including that outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings. Green Bay enters this game on a 4-0 roll to the ‘under’ and Chicago hasn’t seen a game eclipse this week’s number (43) in five consecutive weeks.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Bucs watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games but the ‘under’ has prevailed in two of the last three because the offense (22 PPG) has struggled. Tampa Bay lost to New Orleans 35-28 in the first go ‘round at home on Nov. 21 and it left points off the board too. New Orleans’ defense can’t stop anybody and the offense does have the ability to score, which is why you’re looking at 54-point total. Even though the first meeting went ‘over’ the number (49), that result snapped an eight-game streak to the ‘under’ between these teams.
Kansas City at Oakland: The Raiders beat the Chiefs 26-16 on Oct. 26 and the combined 42 points just slipped ‘over’ the closing number of 41. Despite that result, this series has watched the ‘under’ cash in seven of the last 10 encounters. Oakland (4-0) and Kansas City (4-1) both enter this game with solid ‘under’ runs. This week’s number is hovering in the 44-point range.
Under the Lights
Even though the Bengals-Eagles matchup went ‘over’ this past Thursday, the ‘under’ has still connected at a 64% (28-16) clip this weekend.
San Francisco at New England: Will the 49ers defense be able to slow down the Patriots offense? Against comparable quarterbacks (Rodgers, Manning, Brees), San Francisco gave up 22, 26 and 21 points. Tom Brady and New England put up 42 against the Texans last Monday and that unit was supposed to be great too, right? The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 10-3 this season and a few of those tickets were lucky (last week in particular) but they’re still winners at the betting counter. Make a note that New England hasn’t seen a total (46.5) this low since it beat the Rams 45-7 (46) from London in Week 8.
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee: It’s hard to argue for the ‘over’ here just based on the Jets’ inconsistent offense, which has scored a combined 24 points the last two weeks. What’s even more embarrassing is that New York won those games because the defense only surrendered 16. The Titans have more firepower than the Jets and they also have more holes on defense, which sets up an ‘over’ look. If you believe Tennessee will win, then you should expect some points. In their four victories this season, the Titans have scored 44, 26, 35 and 37 points.
Despite having a “Never in Doubt” loser on the ‘under’ in Seattle-Arizona, we still managed to break even by winning our Team Total and Teaser wagers. On the week we dropped a few cents (-$20) but we’re still ahead on the season at $840 based on one-unit plays. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Pittsburgh-Dallas 44 1/2
Best Under: Seattle-Buffalo 43 1/2
Best Team Total: Under 23 ½ Seattle
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 35 ½ Pittsburgh-Dallas
Under 53 Kansas City-Oakland
Under 50 ½ N.Y. Jets-Tennessee
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: