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12/09/2012 12:40 AM
Packers, Lions Battle In NFL Sunday Night Football Game

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/09/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Packers -6½, O/U 52½
Television: NBC

Detroit Lions: Four consecutive losses, including the last three at home, have the Lions (4-8 straight-up, 4-7-1 against the spread) in freefall as they head to face their division rivals in Green Bay. Detroit's latest defeat came to Indianapolis as Colts rookie quarterback Andrew Luck tossed two touchdown passes in the final few minutes for a dramatic 35-33 triumph. Luck finished the game with four scoring strikes to offset three picks, and the Colts amassed 372 yards through the air, the second most allowed by the Lions this season. Detroit was favored by a touchdown in the contest, and the 68 combined points sailed well past the total, leaving the Lions 9-3 "over" for the year. One of the defeats during this four-game slide came to the Packers on Nov. 18, a 24-20 decision at Ford Field where the Lions were getting three points. It was Green Bay's third straight win in the series, with all three also ending with Packer backers enjoying a payday.

Green Bay Packers: Coach Mike McCarthy and the Pack (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) rebounded from their road loss to the Giants in Week 12 with a 23-14 home victory over Minnesota last week. Green Bay scored 13 unanswered points in the second half and easily won the time of possession battle with a 17-minute advantage on the clock, thanks in large part to an 11-minute drive in the fourth quarter. It was the Packers' sixth win in the last seven games, with them going 5-2 ATS during that span, and kept them perfect at 3-0 vs. NFC North foes. Bettors will want to keep an eye on the injury report that finds linebacker Clay Matthews questionable and wide receiver Jordy Nelson doubtful for Sunday due to hamstring injuries (click to check updated NFL injury report). Green Bay has won the last 21 home games vs. Detroit, including a victory in the 1994 NFC Wild Card playoffs, and the Packers are 14-5-2 ATS in those contests. Four of the last five meetings at Lambeau Field have finished above the total.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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12/09/2012 12:42 AM
NFL Week 14 Preview: Lions at Packers

DETROIT LIONS (4-8)

at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-4)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -6.5, Total: 50

Slumping Detroit not only tries to end a long losing skid this season, but it also seeks its first win at Lambeau Field since 1991, when it visits Green Bay on Sunday night.

The Lions, who have dropped 20 straight meetings at Lambeau, continue to find new ways to lose games. They’ve lost four in a row SU (1-3 ATS) this season, and after having a habit of falling behind early in games, they’ve now blown double-digit leads in each of the past two weeks. Their offense is running out of receivers, as rookie WR Ryan Broyles (ACL) is out for the year, and so is fellow WR Titus Young (knee). The Packers have major issues on their offensive line, but overcame it in beating the Vikings last week. They’ve beaten the Lions three in a row, SU and ATS, though their cover at Detroit in Week 11 was backdoor, as a field goal with 19 seconds left game them a four-point win.

Can the Packers score another comfortable win over their NFC North rival on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford has lost all four career starts against the Packers, throwing 8 TD and 11 INT. However, he was on fire in his lone trip to Lambeau Field, completing 36-of-59 passes for a career-best 520 yards, 5 TD and 2 INT in a wild 45-41 loss in last year's season finale. Although his team has lost four straight, he's been pretty effective with 1,349 passing yards (337 YPG), 8 TD and 4 INT. He'll continue to look mostly to stud WR Calvin Johnson, who not only leads the NFL in receiving yards (1,428 yards), but has 16 catches for 387 yards and 2 TD in the past two meetings with Green Bay. Johnson has five straight games of 125+ receiving yards, which ties the NFL record. The gaggle of injuries to Lions wideouts will also provide more opportunities for TEs Brandon Pettigrew (556 rec. yds, 3 TD) and Tony Scheffler (112 rec. yds in past 2 games) to shine. Pettigrew has 37 targets over the past four weeks and caught seven passes for 116 yards in his last trip to Green Bay. The Lions throw the ball more than any team in the NFL, but they still rush for 104 YPG led by Mikel Leshoure (591 rush yds, 7 TD). The whole offense should benefit from an injury-riddled Packers defense that will be still without LB Clay Matthews (hamstring), CB Sam Shields (shin) and S Charles Woodson (collarbone). Green Bay ranks 17th in the NFL in passing defense (234 YPG) and 15th in rushing defense (115 YPG).

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 7-1 in his career versus the Lions with a 70% completion rate, 2,112 passing yards, 18 TD and 5 INT. The only game he lost was a 7-3 game in Detroit in 2010 when he suffered a concussion in the first half and was forced to leave the game for good. Rodgers has five 300-yard games against the Lions, and has thrown at least two touchdowns in all seven wins, including three weeks ago when he finished 19-of-27 for 236 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in the 24-20 win at Ford Field. He connected with Randall Cobb with 1:55 in regulation for the game-winning touchdown. Although the Packers still plan to employ a heavy air attack, Rodgers could see more pressure than usual with RT Bryan Bulaga (hip) and OT T.J. Lang (ankle) both injured. He has already taken 39 sacks this year, including three in Detroit in Week 11. Rodgers will also be missing starting WR Jordy Nelson (hamstring), but he finally has top WR Greg Jennings back healthy (46 rec. yards last week), and other great talents in Cobb (team-high 675 rec. yards) and James Jones (team-high 9 TD). Green Bay's rushing attack continues to be weak (105 YPG, NFL-low 3 rush TD), but the team added former star RB Ryan Grant to help shoulder the workload with underachieving Alex Green (3.3 YPC). James Starks, who has carried the football 65 times in the past four weeks, is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Detroit's defense is mediocre in both key areas, allowing 234 passing YPG (18th in NFL) and 119 rushing YPG (19th in league). But the Lions have been burned badly in the past two games, allowing 69 points and 960 total yards.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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12/09/2012 12:44 AM
NFL Week 14 Preview: Ravens at Redskins

BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-3)

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Washington -2.5, Total: 47.5

Sizzling-hot Washington looks for a fourth straight victory when it welcomes Baltimore to town on Sunday afternoon.

The Ravens continue to be the NFL’s most underwhelming nine-win team. A week after a miracle win in San Diego, keyed by a 4th-and-29 conversion, they got beat at home by the Charlie Batch-led Steelers. Their previous four-game win streak included wins over the Chargers, Browns, Raiders, and Byron Leftwich-led Steelers. They’ve won eight of their last 10 SU, but their point differential during that stretch is just +31, and that’s boosted by a 35-point win over Oakland. The Redskins, who have won three straight (SU and ATS), all versus NFC East foes, have not played well against AFC teams the past two years, going 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in inter-conference games.

Can Washington keep its win streak alive on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Despite a 4-2 SU record, Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been pretty poor on the road this season, completing just 55% of his passes for 1,238 yards, 4 TD and 4 INT. He also struggled at home last week, completing just 47% of his passes (season low) for 5.5 YPA, 188 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. However, Washington has the league's second-worst pass defense at 299 passing YPG and has allowed 25.1 PPG this season (10th-most in NFL). The Redskins do have a great run-stop unit (92 rush YPG, 4th in NFL), while the Ravens rank 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards (102 YPG). However, top RB Ray Rice is starting to pick up the pace with 175 yards on 34 carries (5.1 YPC) plus 72 receiving yards over the past two games. In six road contests in 2012, Rice has 685 total yards (114 YPG). And a big reason for Baltimore's road success has been its ability to protect the football, as the club has played three straight away games without committing a single turnover.

Robert Griffin III continues to amaze as a rookie, piling up 852 total yards with 9 TD throws and just 1 INT during his team's three-game win streak. Not only does that give him 17 TD and 4 INT through the air, but he's also run for 714 yards (6.8 YPC) and six scores, although none since Week 6. He should be able to beat the Ravens with both his arm and his legs this week, as they rank 23rd in the NFL both against the pass (247 YPG) and the run (126 YPG). Baltimore's defense has been ravaged by injuries, most notably the long-term losses of LB Ray Lewis (triceps) and CBs Lardarius Webb (knee) and Jimmy Smith (hernia), and now LB Terrell Suggs (biceps) is out indefinitely as well. Washington has another star rookie in RB Alfred Morris (1,106 rush yds, 4.8 YPC) who has galloped for two straight 100-yard games, totaling 237 rushing yards on 46 carries (5.2 YPC). The Redskins' league-leading rushing offense (167 YPG) is a big reason why the team has so few turnovers, with just two giveaways in the past five games combined.

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12/09/2012 12:44 AM
NFL Week 14 Preview: Ravens at Redskins

BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-3)

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Washington -2.5, Total: 47.5

Sizzling-hot Washington looks for a fourth straight victory when it welcomes Baltimore to town on Sunday afternoon.

The Ravens continue to be the NFL’s most underwhelming nine-win team. A week after a miracle win in San Diego, keyed by a 4th-and-29 conversion, they got beat at home by the Charlie Batch-led Steelers. Their previous four-game win streak included wins over the Chargers, Browns, Raiders, and Byron Leftwich-led Steelers. They’ve won eight of their last 10 SU, but their point differential during that stretch is just +31, and that’s boosted by a 35-point win over Oakland. The Redskins, who have won three straight (SU and ATS), all versus NFC East foes, have not played well against AFC teams the past two years, going 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in inter-conference games.

Can Washington keep its win streak alive on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Despite a 4-2 SU record, Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been pretty poor on the road this season, completing just 55% of his passes for 1,238 yards, 4 TD and 4 INT. He also struggled at home last week, completing just 47% of his passes (season low) for 5.5 YPA, 188 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. However, Washington has the league's second-worst pass defense at 299 passing YPG and has allowed 25.1 PPG this season (10th-most in NFL). The Redskins do have a great run-stop unit (92 rush YPG, 4th in NFL), while the Ravens rank 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards (102 YPG). However, top RB Ray Rice is starting to pick up the pace with 175 yards on 34 carries (5.1 YPC) plus 72 receiving yards over the past two games. In six road contests in 2012, Rice has 685 total yards (114 YPG). And a big reason for Baltimore's road success has been its ability to protect the football, as the club has played three straight away games without committing a single turnover.

Robert Griffin III continues to amaze as a rookie, piling up 852 total yards with 9 TD throws and just 1 INT during his team's three-game win streak. Not only does that give him 17 TD and 4 INT through the air, but he's also run for 714 yards (6.8 YPC) and six scores, although none since Week 6. He should be able to beat the Ravens with both his arm and his legs this week, as they rank 23rd in the NFL both against the pass (247 YPG) and the run (126 YPG). Baltimore's defense has been ravaged by injuries, most notably the long-term losses of LB Ray Lewis (triceps) and CBs Lardarius Webb (knee) and Jimmy Smith (hernia), and now LB Terrell Suggs (biceps) is out indefinitely as well. Washington has another star rookie in RB Alfred Morris (1,106 rush yds, 4.8 YPC) who has galloped for two straight 100-yard games, totaling 237 rushing yards on 46 carries (5.2 YPC). The Redskins' league-leading rushing offense (167 YPG) is a big reason why the team has so few turnovers, with just two giveaways in the past five games combined.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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12/09/2012 12:45 AM
NFL Week 14 Preview: Bears at Vikings

CHICAGO BEARS (8-4)

at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -3, Total: 39

Slumping Chicago looks to get back on the winning track as it tries to retain its dominance over division foe Minnesota on Sunday.

With their grip on the NFC North slipping after three losses in four games, the Bears won’t mind a trip to Mall of America Field considering they’ve won six in a row, SU and ATS, over the Vikings. Just two weeks ago in Chicago, the Bears fell behind 3-0 early then scored 25 unanswered in an eventual 28-10 win. They had only 296 yards of offense in the win, but in true Bears fashion they held Minnesota to 258 and forced three turnovers. Chicago blew a lead late and then gave up a TD on the first drive of overtime in a 23-17 home loss to Seattle last week. The defense is really hurting with LB Brian Urlacher out (hamstring) and NFL interception leader CB Tim Jennings (shoulder) doubtful. The Vikings lost at Green Bay last week, dropping them to 1-4 (SU and ATS) in their past five games. They have turned it over multiple times in seven of their past eight games, and had to place top WR Percy Harvin (ankle) on season-ending IR earlier this week.

Which slumping team will earn the victory on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Bears QB Jay Cutler has been outstanding in his career versus Minnesota, going 6-1 with a 98.8 passer rating. He's completed 67% of his passes for 1,552 yards (222 YPG), 16 TD and 7 INT. Two weeks ago, he completed 74% of his throws (23-of-31) for 188 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, and took only one sack for the third straight meeting with Minnesota. Cutler also played very well last week (17-of-26, 233 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT), marking Chicago's first game of 200 net passing yards since Week 5. Cutler has been relying heavily on WR Brandon Marshall (91 catches, 1,182 yards), who has 49% of his team's receiving yards this year. Marshall caught 12 passes for 92 yards against the Vikings two weeks ago, and followed that up with a season-best 165 yards on in the overtime loss to Seattle last Sunday. He'll be loaded up with targets again with WRs Earl Bennett and Devin Hester doubtful with concussions and rookie WR Alshon Jeffery questionable with a knee injury. The Bears have done a nice job with their ground attack this season (123 rush YPG, 10th in NFL), and will continue to pound the football with Matt Forte and occasionally Michael Bush. Forte has just 3.9 YPC in eight career meetings with the Vikings, but he has enjoyed the fast track in Minnesota with 284 total yards and 4.6 YPC in three career games there. Bush had a season-high 60 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Vikings two weeks ago, but he needed 21 carries (2.9 YPC) to get those numbers. Minnesota currently ranks 14th in the NFL in both rushing defense (115 YPG) and passing defense (230 YPG), and held Chicago below both of those averages (113 rushing YPG, 183 passing YPG) two weeks ago. The Bears entered last week with eight giveaways over a three-game stretch, but played turnover-free football in the overtime defeat to Seattle.

Vikings QB Christian Ponder has had a rough second season with a 79.4 passer rating (6.0 YPA, 14 TD, 11 INT). Since Harvin was injured four weeks ago in Seattle, Ponder has thrown for just 562 yards (141 YPG) on a pathetic 4.6 YPA. However, Minnesota can still win games with the worst passing offense in football (181 pass YPG) because of their outstanding ground game ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards (155 YPG). Adrian Peterson has over 300 more rushing yards than any other player in the league, rumbling for 1,446 yards on an incredible 6.2 YPC this year. He's currently on a streak of six straight 100-yard games, gaining 947 yards (158 per game) on 7.8 YPC and 6 TD during this surge. That included his 210-yard performance last week and his 108 yards versus the Vikings two games ago. For his career, Peterson has 931 yards (5.0 YPC) and 12 TD in nine meetings with Chicago. The Bears run defense ranks 10th in the NFL with 104 rushing YPG allowed, while the passing defense ranks seventh. Chicago still leads the NFL in forced turnovers (34), but it has just four takeaways over the past three games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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12/09/2012 12:51 AM
Week 14 Tips

December 7, 2012

Four weeks remain in the regular season as three division titles have been clinched so far. The Broncos, Patriots, and Falcons have wrapped up division championships, while the Texans are in the playoffs at 11-1. New England and Houston hook up on Monday night in Foxboro, but there are plenty of teams in the AFC trying to solidify a playoff spot in the coming weeks. We'll start with the battle of the Beltway as Baltimore tries get on track against a hot Washington club.

Ravens at Redskins (-2 ½, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Washington picked up a key victory on Monday night, edging the Giants, 17-16 as short home underdogs for its third consecutive win (all against division opponents). The 'Skins play their third home game in four weeks as the Ravens make the short trip down I-95 for an interconference showdown. Baltimore threw away an opportunity to distance themselves from Pittsburgh in the AFC North race, but the Ravens were tripped up by their rivals.

The Steelers rallied from a 13-3 deficit with Charlie Batch at quarterback to stun the Ravens, 23-20. Baltimore failed to cover as eight-point favorites, dropping to 3-7 ATS the last 10 games and 9-3 SU overall. John Harbaugh's club has won four of the previous five road contests, as three of those victories came by three points. In those five away games, the Ravens have cashed the 'under' four times, while scoring 16 points or fewer on four occasions.

After suffering a three-game losing streak, Mike Shanahan's team has won three straight games to reach the .500 mark at 6-6. In the favorite role, the Redskins own a 1-3 SU/ATS record, including home losses to the Bengals and Panthers. Following a 5-1 start to the 'over' this season, Washington has now cashed the 'under' in five of the last six games.

Chargers at Steelers (-8, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh's chances at a Wild Card berth has been recharged after upsetting Baltimore, but things took a more positive turn when Ben Roethlisberger was cleared to play this Sunday. Roethlisberger sat out the last three games with a shoulder injury, which was suffered in a Week 10 home victory over the Chiefs. The Steelers struggled to put up points with Batch and Byron Leftwich taking over at quarterback, scoring just 47 points in three games.

San Diego is playing out the string right now at 4-8, while head coach Norv Turner and general manager A.J. Smith will be let go at the end of the season. The Bolts have dropped eight of their past 10 games, as the only two victories came over the lowly Chiefs in this stretch. The Chargers covered just three times since a 2-0 start, as one of those ATS wins came with a last-minute touchdown at Denver to cash as 7 ½-point 'dogs in a 30-23 defeat.

The Steelers are listed as a favorite of at least seven points for the second time this season, as Pittsburgh failed to cash as 12 ½-point 'chalk' in the overtime win over Kansas City last month. The 'under' has been the play for Pittsburgh at Heinz Field, hitting in the first five home contests for the Steelers. Since 1983, the Steelers have won 12 of 13 home meetings with the Chargers, as the lone San Diego victory in this span propelled the Bolts to Super Bowl XXIX in the 1994 AFC Championship.

Titans at Colts (-5 ½, 47) - 1:00 PM EST

Indianapolis continues to have a magical season with rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, as the Colts go for their ninth win. The Colts have been the master of winning close games, coming off another miraculous triumph at Detroit last Sunday, rallying from 12 points down in the final four minutes. Indianapolis will go for the season sweep of Tennessee, who squandered a late lead the last time these teams met in Nashville.

The Titans held the Colts to just six points in the first 56 minutes of regulation back in Week 8, but Luck led Indianapolis to the tying touchdown and ultimately the winning touchdown in a 19-13 overtime victory. Bruce Arians' club owns an 8-4 ATS mark, but this is the longest number the Colts are laying all season. The Colts have been involved in plenty of low-scoring games at Lucas Oil Stadium, hitting the 'under' five of six times.

Tennessee continues with the Jake Locker experiment at quarterback, as the former University of Washington standout is just 2-5 in seven starts. The Titans have scored more than 14 points just three times in those seven games, while the defense and special teams combined for three touchdowns in a Week 3 overtime win over the Lions. For what it's worth with Peyton Manning gone, the Titans have lost each of their last four visits to Indianapolis.

Cowboys at Bengals (-3, 45 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

In perhaps the most intriguing matchup on Sunday's card, both Dallas and Cincinnati try to stay alive in their playoff races. The Bengals go for their fourth straight victory following a 3-5 start, which includes three consecutive triumphs in the favorite role. Granted, Cincinnati beat three teams out of playoff contention in Kansas City, Oakland, and San Diego, but the Bengals did start this hot streak with a domination of the defending champion Giants at home.

Marvin Lewis has struggled in the role of a home favorite throughout his career, including a 1-2 ATS record this season. The Bengals' defense has stepped up during this winning streak, allowing 13 points or less in each game, while cashing the 'under' each time. Since the start of last season, Cincinnati has won five of six games against NFC opponents, including a 2-0 record in 2012.

Dallas has failed to cover each of the last three weeks, but the Cowboys are notoriously dreadful as a favorite. Jason Garrett's team pulled out home wins over the Browns and Eagles over the last three weeks, but a loss on Thanksgiving to Washington may cost Dallas a postseason berth. The offense is clicking recently by scoring 31 points or more in three of the last four games, as the 'over' is 3-1 in this span.
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12/09/2012 12:53 AM
Total Talk - Week 14

December 8, 2012

Week 13 Recap

The ‘under’ went 9-7 last week and all of the results were never in doubt or at least most of them were. For those bettors taking the ‘under’ in the Seattle-Chicago matchup, we feel for you! The Bears led 14-10 late in the game only to see Seattle take a 17-14 lead in the final minute. Sure enough, Chicago miraculously forced the extra session with a field goal (17-17) and due to the new overtime rules, the ‘Hawks pushed the envelope and scored a touchdown in the extra session for a 23-17 win. The combined 40 points slipped ‘over’ the closing number of 37. On the season, the ‘under’ holds a slight edge at 97-95-1 and the numbers would be more in favor if it wasn’t for so many late-game explosions.

Line Moves

The smart money went 2-2 last week. Since we’re in the final month, weather is starting to come into play and both of the primetime games are expected to get some precipitation. Here are the early line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS:

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay: Line opened 45 ½ and jumped to 48
Miami at San Francisco: Line opened 40 and dropped to 38 ½
Detroit at Green Bay: Line opened 52 ½ and dropped to 50
Houston at New England: Line opened 53 and dropped to 51

Under the Lights

As mentioned above, both of the final two primetime games have already seen their totals drop. Is it do to the expected poor weather or maybe it’s due to the ‘under’ posting a 27-14 (66%) record in games played under the lights this season? A lot of bookmakers have been complaining about the NFL favorites cashing but they’ll never admit how much these totals have helped them stay ahead. Despite the trends and weather, both of these games are still hovering around 50 points but all four teams have the ability to light up the scoreboard.

Detroit at Green Bay: Green Bay stopped Detroit 24-20 at Ford Field two weeks ago and the game never threatened the closing number of 53 ½. The Packers were in a groove offensively midway through the season but they only scored 24, 10 and 23 the last three weeks, which all resulted in ‘under’ tickets. Detroit (8-3-1) has been a solid ‘over’ bet this season, and it seems like its defense is getting much worse. The last two matchups at Lambeau Field watched the Packers notch shootout victories (45-41, 28-26).

Houston at New England: I believe you can argue either ‘over’ or ‘under’ in this matchup. The Texans love to grind the football and probably understand that if they have a shot to win, they’ll need to keep the Patriots’ offense off the field. Houston’s defense is legit but the last time they saw a great quarterback, the unit gave up 42 to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. New England has Tom Brady and they saw their nine-game ‘over’ run come to an end last week against Miami (23-16). The 23 points was tied for the second-lowest scoring output this season by the Pats. These teams have only met three times and all three encounters have gone ‘over’ the number.

Divisional Rematches

Taking the ‘over’ in the second divisional meeting has been a solid investment this season but as I’ve said before, all things balance out in the long run and the results are starting to swing the other way. Before Week 13, the ‘over’ was 10-2 in the rematch games but the ‘under’ came out on top with a 4-2 mark last weekend. When you include Thursday’s outcome between Denver and Oakland, the ‘under’ has now gone 5-2 in the last seven rematch games. Gamblers are looking at five more of these situations on Sunday and what’s intriguing is that the first battle watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in these games.

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts win a 35-32 shootout over the Lions and the oddsmakers come out with a total of 48 ½ points, which has already dipped to 47 ½. Once again, the opener was inflated and even the current number is too high in my opinion. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight in this series and eight of the last 10. On Oct. 28, the Colts beat the Titans 19-13 in overtime. Indianapolis has seen the ‘under’ go 5-1 at home this season, plus the Titans (4-1) have leaned to the ‘under’ in their last five games.

Chicago at Minnesota: This matchup is a quick turnaround with Chicago beating Minnesota 28-10 two weeks ago at Soldier Field. Even though this game barely stayed ‘under’ the closing number of 38 ½ points, the Bears led 25-3 at the break and pulled off the gas. The rematch will be played indoors and with a higher total (39 ½), which always raises eyebrows. The Vikings are going to face a banged-up Bears defense that has been forcing many turnovers lately, plus they’re suspect against the run. However, not having WR Percy Harvin definitely hurts an offense that has posted 10 and 14 the last two weeks. Make a note that Chicago has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 on the road this season.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Falcons rallied past the Panthers 30-28 in Week 4 and the ‘over’ (48) was an easy winner. Despite that shootout, Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ cash in 67% (8-4) of its games. On the other hand, Carolina has seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight largely because the defense can’t stop anybody and Cam Newton does enough to muster up some points. Atlanta has won five straight against Carolina and we mention that because it has scored 30-plus points in every game during this stretch. For whatever reason, Matt Ryan plays good against the ‘Cats.

Arizona at Seattle: Looking back at Week 1 now, the Seahawks are probably still upset that they lost to the Cardinals, 20-16. Seattle had four shots inside the five-yard line at the end of the game but came up empty and rookie QB Russell Wilson heard the criticism. Fast forward 13 weeks, Wilson and the ‘Hawks are close to making the playoffs while the Cardinals have lost eight straight after starting 4-0. The difference, Seattle has the QB and Arizona doesn’t. The Cards offensive woes have helped the ‘under’ go 9-3. This week’s number (35 ½) is the lowest on the board and arguing for an ‘over’ is tough especially when you look at Seattle’s tendencies too. The Seahawks are 0-3 in the division and they’ve scored 16, 13 and 6 points. Wilson and Seattle have played better but for whatever reason, the NFC West teams have his number, at least they did in the first go ‘round.

Detroit at Green Bay: (See Above)

Fearless Predictions

Week 13 watched the bankroll add another $190 of profit, pushing the season total to $860. We could’ve pulled off the sweep but the Bucs-Broncos total got a late coring boost, which has become a regular occurrence in Tampa Bay games this season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Chicago-Minnesota 39

Best Under: Arizona-Seattle 35 1/2

Best Team Total: Over 18 Minnesota

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Chicago-Minnesota 30
Over New Orleans-N.Y. Giants 44
Over Atlanta-Carolina 39

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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12/09/2012 12:56 AM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 14

December 7, 2012

Ben Roethlisberger has missed the past three games and the Steelers line against the Chargers was left off the board until official word came in regarding his injured shoulder. If Big Ben was a go, we we're looking at Steelers -8 ½ and if Charlie Batch had to take over again, we were might have seen Steelers -4.
On Thursday, it was announced that Big Ben would play and Las Vegas sports books quickly posted the Steelers -7 ½ with a total of 41. A few books took immediate action on the Steelers and have bumped the side up to -8.

There was also other news Thursday regarding the Chargers. It seems that San Diego coach Norv Turner's nine lives have finally been used up. Apparently Turner and GM A.J. Smith will be let go at season's end. It's amazing that duo has been able to hang around as long as they have with so many underachieving seasons together.

November has typically been the month that Turner saved his job each year, making a big push for the playoffs and being fortunate that the AFC West was so weak, that a record at .500 or slightly better allowed them to get in. But they were left out last season and after winning their first game in November this season, they proceeded to lose their next four.

The Chargers have lost seven of their last eight games and don't look to be close to breaking that streak anytime soon. Their biggest problem this season has been protecting quarterback Philip Rivers. They have used a make-shift offensive line that rarely gives Rivers time to throw. It won't get any easier with the Steelers pass rush on Sunday.

Here's a look at some of the line movements at Las Vegas sports books for Week 14.

-- The Redskins were posted Sunday at pick 'em at home against the Ravens, but that was before their impressive win against the Giants. The Redskins were re-posted -1 ½ on Tuesday and then bet up to 2 ½.

-- The Browns have won two games in a row and will be favored for the second consecutive week. They opened as 5 ½-point home favorites against the Chiefs and have been bet up to -6 ½.

-- The Colts opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against the Titans and have been bet up to -5.

-- The Jets beat the Cardinals last week thanks to finally benching Mark Sanchez, but Sanchez is back as the starter this week at Jacksonville. The Jets opened as 2 ½-point road favorites and, surprisingly, were bet up to -3 (EVEN).

-- The Bears floundered last week at home against the Seahawks and opened as three-point favorites at Minnesota. Some sports books have gone to -2 ½. William Hill sports books offered a prop on Adrian Peterson reaching 2,000 yards this season with YES getting +175, NO -200. Peterson leads the NFL with 1,446 yards rushing and has four games remaining. Whether he gets the record or not, Peterson's come back has been one of the most impressive recoveries ever seen. Didn't the Chicago Bulls point guard Derrick Rose have the same injury?

-- The Falcons opened 3 ½-point favorites at Carolina and the number hasn't moved. Cam Newton is coming off his best back-to-back games of the season and nearly beat the Falcons the first time around.

-- The Buccaneers opened as 9-point favorites Sunday night over the Eagles, before the Eagles showed some offense in their Sunday night game against the Cowboys. The line was re-posted at -7 and has been bet up to -7 ½.

-- The Bills laying 3-points at home against the Rams hasn't found any takers on either side.

-- The Bengals opened as 2-point home favorites against the Cowboys on Sunday night. After the Cowboys win over the Eagles in the SNF affair, the Bengals were posted at -2 1/2 and then bet up to -3. The Bengals have won and covered four games in a row, and the UNDER has come in all four times as well.

-- The 49ers opened 10-point favorites against the Dolphins and have been bet up -10 ½. The total has been bet up from 38 ½ to 39. Colin Kaepernick makes the 49ers more volatile than the conservative Alex Smith at quarterback. Kaepernick can make the sensational plays, but he's more apt to making mistakes which makes the 49ers a tough team to back any more, or side with the UNDER.

-- The Saints have lost two games in a row and will be traveling to New York to face the Giants this week. The Giants were early six-point favorites before their Monday night loss. They are currently -5.

-- The Seahawks opened as 10 ½-point home favorites against the Cardinals. The Cards will be hoping to avoid their ninth straight loss, but Seattle is not the ideal place to gain confidence as the Seahawks have won and covered all five home games this season.

-- The Packers opened as 7-point home favorites against the Lions and have been bet against, down to -6 ½. The Lions are currently on a four-game losing streak.

-- The big game of the week is Monday night between the 11-1 Texans and 9-3 Patriots. The Patriots opened up as 4 ½-point home favorites and Texans money has dropped the number to 3 ½. The Texans haven't lost on the road this season, but the Patriots have beat their last six opponents by an average of 40-20. The total dropped from 51 ½ to 51, despite the Patriots going OVER the total in nine of their past 10 games.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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12/09/2012 01:00 AM
Tech Trends - Week 14

December 7, 2012

Sunday, Dec. 9 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Ravens cutting it close with seven games decided by 3 points or fewer (Balt. 5-2 SU in those games), and John Harbaugh just 3-4 last seven in once-profitable underdog role. Ravens also "under" 4-1 last five on road. Shanahan has covered 5 of last seven this season. Slight to "under" and Redskins, based on "totals" and recent team trends.

Chiefs have covered three of last four this season after 2-6 spread mark in first half of campaign. K.C. also a surprising "over" 4-1 on road in 2012 after 12-4 "under" mark in 2011. Browns, however, are 11-4-1 vs. line last 16 on board since late 2011. Cleveland also "under" 18-8-1 since Pat Shurmur arrived as coach last season. Slight to Browns and "under," based on extended trends.

Norv 2-6 vs. spread last eight this season, he's also just 1-4 last five in once-profitable dog role. Steelers "under" their last eight at Heinz Field after extended "over" trends at tome the previous decade. "Under" and Steelers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Colts 5-1 SU and vs. line at Lucas Oil Stadium TY. Colts also "under" 9-1-1 last 11 at Lucas Oil. Titans 10-17-1 vs. spread since Mike Munchak took over as coach in 2011 and 3-6 vs. number last 8 away. Colts and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

"Road-in-Jag" trend this season is weakening as home teams have covered last two J'ville games' the visiting side had covered the first nine games. Jets 4-7 last 11 as chalk, also "over" 18-6 on road since 2010. Slight to "over," based on Jets' road "totals" trends.

Bears have now won and covered last six vs. Vikings after 28-10 win at Soldier Field on Nov. 25. Vikings 1-4 SU and vs. line last five in 2012. Bears, based on series trends.

Cam & Co. 1-5 vs. line at home in 2012, and road team is 9-3 against spread in Carolina games this season. Falcons 4-1-1 vs. spread away TY and have won last five vs. Panthers (Atlanta 4-1 vs. line in those games). Falcons, based on team trends.

Birds just 2-10 vs. line this season, while TB 8-3-1 vs. points after Denver result. Andy Reid "under" 5-1 on road this season, although Schiano now "over" 6-1-1 last 8 after Broncos result. Bucs, based on team trends.

Chan is 3-1 as chalk TY after dropping last three spread decisions in role year ago. Chan also "over" 5-1 last six at Orchard Park, and Bills "over" 18-11 last 29 since late 2010. Rams 4-1 vs. line as true visitor TY (not counting London game) and "over" 4-2 away from home. "Over" and Rams, based on "totals" and team trends.

Dallas 4-2 vs. points away TY, but Cowboys also just 9-21-1 against number last 31 on board since late 2010. Cincy streaking vs. number this season, spread win streaks of three and four (currently four in a row after Chargers win). Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

Sunday, Dec. 9 - All games to start at 4:05 p.m. or 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Harbaugh only 3-3 vs. spread at Candlestick this season after 8-1-1 home mark vs. number a year ago. Off SU loss, Harbaugh 1-1 vs. points TY but was 3-0 in role a year ago. Dolphins no covers last two away after 8-1 mark vs. number previous nine on role. Miami "under" 7-4-1 TY after Patriots on Sunday and "under" 19-8-1 since 2011. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Saints "over" 8-4 this season and "over" 20-11 last 31 since late 2010. Saints also just 2-3 as dog in 2012. Giants only 2-4 vs. line as host in 2012. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

"Unders" 4-1 last five in series since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle. Cards now 8 SU losses in a row TY after Jets game, but Big Red has covered 2 of last 3 TY. Cards also "under" 9-3 TY and "under" 14-6-1 last 20 overall since mid 2011. Pete Carroll 8-4 vs. line TY and 19-7 last 26 on board overall. Also 5-0 SU and vs. line as host TY and nine straight covers at CenturyLink Field. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Dec. 9 - 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Lions now four SU losses in a row after Indy crusher and losing last three by 4, 3, and 2 points in final seconds. Lions also haven't won SU at Lambeau since Wayne Fontes' NFC finalist team turned the trick in 1991! Lions 1-4 vs. line last five at Lambeau and 6-13 last 19 on board overall since mid 2011. Lions also "over" 31-15-3 since late in 2009 campaign. Packers and "over," based on team, series, and "totals" trends.

Monday, Dec. 10 - 8:35 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Texans 8-4 vs. line TY, 21-9 vs. points since LY, 22-9 last 31 overall. Kubiak 6-2 last 8 as dog. Teams haven't met since last 2009 reg.-season game. Belichick only 2-3 vs. line at home TY and 2-4 last 6 against spread at Foxborough. Belichick also "over" 9-3 TY and 37-13 last 50 since late 2009 despite "under" vs. Miami. Texans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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12/09/2012 01:17 AM
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 9

Game 105-106: Baltimore at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.474; Washington 134.590
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 107-108: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 119.738; Cleveland 131.638
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 12; 34
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 6; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6); Under

Game 109-110: San Diego at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.723; Pittsburgh 134.385
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 111-112: Tennessee at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 124.006; Indianapolis 133.259
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Under

Game 113-114: NY Jets at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.587; Jacksonville 124.870
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Over

Game 115-116: Chicago at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 135.833; Minnesota 128.974
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 33
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under

Game 117-118: Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 133.575; Carolina 132.165
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.491; Tampa Bay 137.437
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 15; 44
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 7; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-7); Under

Game 121-122: St. Louis at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 132.615; Buffalo 129.411
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 123-124: Dallas at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.704; Cincinnati 134.024
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 125-126: Miami at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.501; San Francisco 145.464
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 19; 35
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10; 39
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-10); Under

Game 127-128: New Orleans at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.415; NY Giants 136.134
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 56
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 5; 53
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+5); Over

Game 129-130: Arizona at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 121.605; Seattle 138.189
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 16 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 36
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Under

Game 131-132: Detroit at Green Bay (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 129.802 Green Bay 139.596
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 47
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6 1/2); Under


MONDAY, DECEMBER 10

Game 133-134: Houston at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 141.139; New England 142.851
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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