Total Talk - Week 13
December 2, 2012
Week 12 Recap
After watching three shootouts on Thanksgiving, the ‘under’ produced a 9-3 mark on Sunday. I’m not sure what’s tougher to stomach, needing 10 points in one half to cash an ‘over’ ticket or listening to broadcaster Al Michaels reminding you that you still need it? For those who had the ‘over’ in the Packers-Giants, we apologize and hope it didn’t hurt too much. The MNF battle between Carolina and Philadelphia went ‘over’ which cut into the dominance of the ‘under’ (25-12) in games under the lights. On the season, the ‘over/under’ is knotted at 88-88-1.
Finally, a divisional rematch went ‘under’ the number. It happened this past Thursday as Atlanta beat New Orleans, 23-13. Even though the final outcome didn’t threaten the closing number (54), a lot of points were left off the board. Thanks Drew Brees! Despite that result, the ‘over’ is still 10-3 (77%) this season when opponents meet in their second divisional game. I believe all things will balance out in the end and the difference with this week’s rematches is that the first meetings recently took place.
San Francisco at St. Louis: This pair met three weeks ago and the final score was a 24-24 tie. Including this game, four of the last five have gone ‘over’ the number. What’s different about this week’s meeting is the number, which is hovering around 41 points. That’s the highest total in the last seven encounters. The Rams have seen the ‘over’ cash in its last five games. Make a note that both these teams posted 31 last week and each club got 14 points from their defense.
Houston at Tennessee: These teams met on Sept. 30 and Houston blasted Tennessee 38-14 but two of the touchdowns were from the Texans defense. The Texans have shown some offense the last two weeks (43, 34) and they’re rested after the Thanksgiving Day win. Tennessee’s defense is still suspect, ranked second worst in points allowed (30.5 PPG). It appears that the Texans score but ‘over’ bettors will need the Titans to do their job and that’s tough at times with Jack Locker at QB. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last four in this series.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: If you’re playing this game, don’t pat yourself on the back if you win and don’t cry if you lose. Not having Ben Roethlisberger has watched the Steelers put up 10 and 14 points the last two week. Defensively, they’ve only allowed 33 combined points, 13 of them coming to Baltimore two weeks ago at home. The Ravens have scored 44, 31, 23, 31 and 55 points in their five home games this season. So another explosion wouldn’t be surprising, but still tough to pull the trigger here. Three of the last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number.
Philadelphia at Dallas: Here’s another game that’s probably not worth wagering but since it’s the SNF chase game, we’ll take a closer look. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 38-23 in Week 10 on the road. Dallas led 10-7 at half before outscoring the Birds 28-16 in the final 30 minutes, and 21 of those points from the ‘Boys came from the defense and special teams. Dallas has been exposed defensively at home this season, giving up 34, 29, 20 and 38 in the last four games. Not sure what you’re going to get out of the Eagles and their banged-up offense but the defense is allowing 25.6 PPG this season. The ‘under’ had hit in the three previous meetings before the first matchup this season.
N.Y. Giants at Washington: This is one of four totals this week that listed above 50 points (51). The Redskins and Giants both looked good last week, each club posting 38 points. Now you’re on MNF and the game actually means something for once. These teams met in mid-October and New York secured a 27-23 win albeit with a late touchdown. The combined 50 points stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 51 points. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings. You might have to toss out those results, since the ‘Skins are a different offense under RG3.
The smart money produced a 1-3 mark last weekend but should’ve gone 2-2 if the aforementioned Giants-Packers game doesn’t stay ‘under.’ Keep an eye on Carolina-Kansas City since a lot of outside issues are affecting the game. It might be better to pass that game all together, probably the better choice even before the tragedy. Here are the early moves for Week 13 at CRIS, which all leaned to the ‘under.’
Minnesota at Green Bay: Lined opened 47 and dropped to 45 1/2
Jacksonville at Buffalo: Line opened 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Carolina at Kansas City: Line opened 41 ½ and dropped to 39
Cincinnati at San Diego: Line opened 47 ½ and dropped to 45
Week 12 produced a 3-1 mark and $190 of profit. The losing ticket was the Falcons team total (26) against Tampa Bay. They scored 24 and had plenty of chances to get there. On the season, we’re in the black for $670. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!
Best Over: Philadelphia-Dallas 43
Best Under: Tampa Bay-Denver 51
Best Team Total: Over Philadelphia 16 1/2
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 34 Philadelphia-Dallas
Under 60 Tampa Bay-Denver
Under 45 Arizona-N.Y. Jets