cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/22/2012 07:17 PM

Week 16 Tips

December 22, 2012

The playoff races are tight in each conference with only two games remaining in the regular season. Past Atlanta, San Francisco, and Green Bay, the NFC has plenty of different scenarios of teams not only qualifying for a Wild Card spot, but the NFC East is still up for grabs. The Cowboys, Redskins, and Giants each own 8-6 records, but New York is finished with Dallas and Washington on the schedule. Meanwhile, Minnesota looks to close strong against Houston and Green Bay, two teams that have already wrapped up division titles.

Vikings at Texans (-8, 44 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota has been the ultimate roller-coaster ride this season in the NFL. The Vikings began the campaign at 4-1, but lost five of the next seven games. Leslie Frazier's club has got back on track with consecutive victories over Chicago and St. Louis as short underdogs to improve to 8-6, while being part of a five-team logjam for one playoff spot in the NFC.

The Texans wrapped up their second straight AFC South title by beating the Colts last Sunday, 29-17 as 10 ½-point favorites. Houston moved to 12-2, as Gary Kubiak's squad can clinch home-field advantage in the AFC with a victory over Minnesota. In four games off a home win, the Texans have hit the 'under' three times, while twice holding opponents to nine points or less.

The Vikings picked up just their second road win in seven tries last Sunday in a blowout of the Rams. Minnesota has lost all three times this season after scoring at least 26 points in a victory, including double-digit losses at Washington and Chicago. In two meetings between these teams, the 'over' has hit each time, including a 28-21 home triumph by Minnesota in 2008.

Saints at Cowboys (-2 ½, 51 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans couldn't overcome the disastrous offseason of "Bountygate," as the Saints will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The Cowboys are trying to avoid a December meltdown in the final two weeks, as Dallas saved its season with an overtime victory over Pittsburgh last Sunday.

Dallas controls its own destiny as far as the NFC East title goes as the Cowboys travel to Washington in the season finale. Jason Garrett's team closed as a one-point favorite in last week's 27-24 triumph over the Steelers, a third straight victory for the Cowboys. Dallas has cashed the 'over' in five of the last six home contests, as the potential for a shootout is possible again, taking on a New Orleans' defense that ranks 32nd in points allowed.

The Saints put together their most impressive win of the season last Sunday with a 41-0 rout of the Buccaneers as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' The victory snapped a three-game skid, but New Orleans enters the Lone Star State with a 2-4 ATS record as an underdog this season. It's been a difficult task to determine is the Saints will hit the 'over' on the road consistently as evidenced by 3-3 mark to the 'over' with a total above 50.

Bengals at Steelers (-3 ½, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

We didn't want to disregard the AFC playoff race, which still has plenty of storylines. Cincinnati dug themselves back from the dead after starting 3-5 as the Bengals have won five of their last six games, including a Thursday night rout of the Eagles, 34-13 as 4 ½-point road favorites. Now, the Bengals are playing with revenge after losing in Week 7 at home to the Steelers.

Pittsburgh topped Cincinnati, 24-17 two months ago at Paul Brown Stadium in a Sunday night affair, as the Steelers held the Bengals to 185 yards of total offense. With all the injuries the Steelers have suffered this season, former Georgia Tech standout Jonathan Dwyer stepped in to rush for 122 yards that night, while Chris Rainey scored the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has won each of the last five meetings, including a 3-0 record against Andy Dalton.

The Bengals are getting the job done on the defensive side, allowing 13 points or less in five of the previous six games, while cashing the 'under' five times in this stretch. Cincinnati has been one of the better road clubs in the league this season by compiling a 5-2 SU/ATS ledger, but both losses came to division opponents at Baltimore and Cleveland.

Giants (-2 ½, 47) at Ravens - 4:25 PM EST

New York knows the drill - just get in the playoffs. The Giants have alternated wins and losses in each of their last five games, including a 34-0 drubbing last Sunday at the hands of the Falcons. Tom Coughlin's club has lost three straight road contests, while scoring just 29 points in those defeats. The task won't be easy this week, but the Ravens need a victory to secure the AFC North crown.

Baltimore has stumbled recently with three consecutive losses, while getting blasted at home by AFC West champ Denver, 31-17 last Sunday. In John Harbaugh's tenure as head coach, the Ravens have never lost four straight games, as Baltimore has been in this situation two previous times since 2008. The Ravens have seen tremendous success at home against NFC opponents, winning 12 straight games dating back to 2006.

The Giants own a 2-4 ATS record the last six weeks, while putting together a 2-5 ATS mark since 2006 as a road favorite against AFC competition. The 'under' is profiting for New York recently, hitting in seven of the last nine games, even though this is the lowest total for the Giants since falling at Cincinnati in Week 10.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/22/2012 07:20 PM

Falcons at Lions

December 21, 2012


Two teams going in different directions will collide Saturday night at Ford Field in the Motor City, where Detroit will play host to Atlanta. With a win, the Falcons can wrap up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

Most books are listing Atlanta (12-2 straight up, 8-5-1 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. Gamblers can take the Lions on the money line for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

Mike Smith’s team silenced its critics with last week’s 34-0 clubbing of the Giants at the Ga. Dome. Matt Ryan completed 23-of-28 passes for 270 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.

Julio Jones caught a pair of TD passes against the G-Men. Tony Gonzalez had the other TD grab and Michael Turner rushed for 52 yards and one score. Harry Douglas had three receptions for a team-high 83 yards.

Atlanta’s defense handed New York its first regular-season shutout since 1996. Sean Weatherspoon recorded a team-high nine tackles (six solo), while Thomas DeCoud and Asante Samuel both intercepted Eli Manning. Samuel’s interception on the Giants’ opening drive set the tone for the game and gave his team great field position to draw first blood.

Ryan is enjoying the best season of his career. The Boston College product has completed 68.5 of his passes for a career-high 4,202 yards with a 27/14 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ryan probably has the best trio of weapons in the NFL with tight end Tony Gonzalez, WR Julio Jones and WR Roddy White, and now Douglas is getting more involved.

White has made a team-high 79 receptions for 1,156 yards and five TDs, while Jones has 69 catches for 1,071 yards and nine TDs. Gonzalez is possibly playing his last season but the future Hall of Famer isn’t slowing down a bit. Gonzalez has 87 receptions for 880 yards and eight TDs.

Atlanta has not had much success running the ball, however. Michael Turner is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry and his back-up, Jacquizz Rodgers, is averaging just 3.9 YPC.

Detroit (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS) has been creating ways to lose all season and last week’s blowout loss to the lowly Cardinals was the icing on the cake in a nightmare campaign. Arizona snapped a nine-game losing streak by trouncing the Lions 38-10 as a six-point home underdog.

Matt Stafford threw three interceptions against the Cardinals, including a pair of pick-sixes.

Jim Schwartz’s club has lost six in a row, going 1-5 ATS in the process. To give you an idea of how frustrating things have been for the Lions, consider that they are second in the NFL in total offense and 12th in total defense. Until last week’s loss, Detroit’s seven previous defeats were all one-possession games.

Stafford is fourth in the NFL in passing yards with 4,252, but he has a mediocre 17/15 TD-INT ratio. Calvin Johnson leads the NFL in receiving with 106 catches for 1,667 yards and five TDs.

Detroit is 2-4 both SU and ATS at home this year. In a pair of home underdog situations, the Lions lost outright both times but went 1-1 ATS. During Schwartz’s four-year tenure, his team is 8-6 ATS in 14 games as a home underdog.

As if Schwartz didn’t have enough concerns, now injuries are starting to mount. Key players like WR Ryan Broyles, WR Titus Young, DT Corey Williams and DT Nick Fairley have recently been placed on injured reserve. Also, safety Louis Delmas is ‘questionable’ against Atlanta and TE Brandon Pettigrew is ‘doubtful.’

As for the Falcons, they have three key players listed as ‘questionable,’ including DT Jonathan Babineaux, OG Tyson Clabo and DB Chris Owens.

Atlanta has won five of its seven road games, posting a 4-2-1 spread record. The Falcons are 2-2-1 ATS as road favorites this season, 11-7-1 ATS as road ‘chalk’ during Smith’s five-year tenure.

I had a phone conversation Friday afternoon with Matt Youmans, who covers the sports betting beat for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Youmans told VegasInsider.com, “Bookmakers are prepared for a one-sided attack on the Falcons. It’s a bad situation in Detroit right now. I’ve heard the coaching staff isn’t getting along and that [head coach Jim] Schwartz and [offensive coordinator Scott] Linehan have been going at each other all year long.”

The ‘under’ is 9-5 overall for the Falcons, but they have seen the ‘over’ go 4-3 in their road assignments.

The ‘over’ is 9-4-1 overall for the Lions, 4-2 in their six home games.

Kickoff is slated for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Atlanta veteran defensive end John Abraham has registered a team-high 10 sacks.

--DeCoud has a team-high six interceptions for the Falcons.

--Seattle owns the NFL’s best spread record with a 10-4 ATS ledger. The Seahawks have covered the number in three straight and they’ve seen the ‘over’ hit in four consecutive game and six of their last seven. Pete Carroll’s team is 6-0 both SU and ATS at home going into Sunday night’s NFC West showdown vs. San Francisco.

--Philadelphia continues to own the NFL’s worst ATS record, going 3-10-1 vs. the number.

--In addition to Detroit, there are six more home underdogs in Week 16, including Jacksonville (+14.5 vs. New England), Philadelphia (+6 vs. Washington), Arizona (+5.5 vs. Chicago), Baltimore (+2.5 vs. the Giants), Kansas City (+7 vs. Indianapolis) and Seattle (+1 vs. San Francisco).

--During John Harbaugh’s five-year reign as Baltimore’s head coach, the Ravens are 1-3 ATS in four games as home underdogs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/22/2012 07:25 PM

NFL

Saturday, December 22

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Falcons at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (3.5, 50.5)

The Atlanta Falcons are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the NFC. The Detroit Lions are just looking to end their dismal season on a high note when the teams collide at Ford Field on Saturday night. NFC South champion Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a triumph in the Motor City. The Falcons are wrapping up the road portion of their regular season but have lost two of their last three away from home.
Detroit enters the contest looking to snap its six-game losing streak. Things hit rock bottom for the Lions on Sunday, when they suffered a 38-10 loss in Arizona to the Cardinals, who were coming off their ninth consecutive defeat - an embarrassing 58-0 drubbing at the hands of Seattle. Detroit has not won since posting a 31-14 victory at Jacksonville on Nov. 4.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Falcons -3.5, O/U 50.5.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (12-2): Atlanta bounced back from a 10-point road loss to Carolina in a big way as it recorded a dominating 34-0 home triumph over the New York Giants on Sunday. The Falcons ran more than they passed for just the second time this season, gaining 125 yards on 35 carries - not including three kneel-downs by their quarterbacks - while attempting just 28 passes. They ran 37 times and passed on 29 occasions in a victory over Philadelphia on Oct. 28. Matt Ryan broke two of his franchise records Sunday. Ryan has now thrown for 4,202 yards on 369 completions through 14 games. He had 4,177 passing yards last season and completed 357 passes in 2010.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-10): After winning 10 games last season, Detroit will be hard-pressed to record half as many victories this campaign. After facing Atlanta, the Lions host the Chicago Bears, who are very much in contention for a playoff spot. Coach Jim Schwartz is not planning on conceding anything despite his team's downward spiral. "You have something to prove every week regardless of winning streak, losing streak, what happened the previous week," he said. "People are competitive, people have pride. People have confidence in themselves. I think that's what helps people bounce back from stuff like this." Four of Detroit's last five losses have been by seven points or less.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
* Under is 4-1 in Falcons’ last five games overall.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions WR Calvin Johnson needs 182 yards to break Hall of Famer Jerry Rice's single-season record of 1,848 receiving yards.

2. Ryan is the only QB in Falcons history to throw for more than 4,000 yards in consecutive seasons. He is 33-4 at home and has won his last 11 starts at the Georgia Dome.

3. After throwing 41 touchdown passes last year, Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has only 17 this season.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/22/2012 07:27 PM

NFL

Saturday, December 22

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Tale of the tape: Falcons at Lions
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Saturday night’s showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions.

Offense

The Falcons have been held under 20 points only once this season, that coming in a winning effort back on November 4th against the Cowboys. They scored in all four quarters en route to a 34-0 win over the Giants last Sunday. Michael Turner has re-established himself as a key cog in recent weeks, scoring a touchdown in five consecutive games. Since throwing five interceptions in Week 11 against Arizona, Matt Ryan has tossed seven touchdowns compared to only two interceptions in the last four games.

Detroit is coming off one of its worst offensive showings of the season, putting up only 10 points in a blowout loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. Prior to that, the Lions had scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games. Calvin Johnson racked up 121 receiving yards last week, but was held out of the end zone for the second straight game. Mikel Leshoure has scored at least one touchdown in four of Detroit’s last four contests.

Edge: Atlanta


Defense

Atlanta gave up 30 points in its last road game in Carolina two weeks ago, but responded with a shutout of the defending Super Bowl champions back at home last Sunday. The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent defensively, giving up 31, 19, 23, 13, 30, and 0 points in their last six games overall. Their weakness has been against the run, where they allow five yards per rush on the road this season.

Speaking of problems defending the run, the Lions are giving up 4.9 yards per rush at home. Detroit has been absolutely torched lately, allowing at least 24 points in six straight games. With that being said, the Lions have still managed to outgain four of their last five opponents in terms of total yardage. They held the Falcons to 23 points in a losing effort right here at Ford Field last season.

Edge: Atlanta


Special teams

The Falcons should have a field day returning punts against a Lions special teams unit that allows a whopping 14.2 yards per return this season. The problem is, Atlanta has only managed 7.3 yards per return in that department. Falcons kicker Matt Bryant is one of the best in the business, but hasn't been quite as steady as he was earlier in the season, connecting on 31-of-36 field-goal attempts to date.

Detroit is averaging below the league average in terms of both kickoff and punt returning, and won't catch any sort of break against a Falcons special teams unit that performs better than the league average in coverage. Atlanta is allowing only 7.0 yards per punt return, and 21.3 yards on kickoffs. Veteran Lions kicker Jason Hanson has missed only four of 32 field-goal attempts, but one of those misses came on perhaps his biggest kick, in overtime against the Texans on Thanksgiving Day.

Edge: Atlanta


Word on the street

“I thought we set the tempo early with our run game and it goes hand-in-hand when you’re able to run the football." Falcons head coach Mike Smith on his team returning to its roots by focusing on its ground game against the Giants last Sunday.

"You know, all we need is to have one play from every guy that we didn't have last week. You know, Calvin's going to have his, but every guy has to have a play that's made." Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan speaking about the top-heavy nature of his receiving corps.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/22/2012 07:33 PM

Saturday, December 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 8:30 PM ET Atlanta -3.5 500

Detroit - Under 50 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/23/2012 12:37 PM

Sunday, December 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +10.5 500
Green Bay - Over 45 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -9.5 500
Carolina - Over 46.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +5 500
Miami - Under 43.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -3 500
Pittsburgh - Over 41.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +14 500
Jacksonville - Over 51 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +4.5 500
Kansas City - Under 41.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Dallas -1 500
Dallas - Over 52.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia +4.5 500
Philadelphia - Under 46 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +3 500 DOD
Tampa Bay - Over 44 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Houston -9.5 500
Houston - Under 44 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -1 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 38.5 500

Cleveland - 4:05 PM ET Cleveland +12 500
Denver - Over 43.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:25 PM ET Baltimore +1 500
Baltimore - Over 47 500

Chicago - 4:25 PM ET Arizona +6.5 500
Arizona - Under 36.5 500

San Francisco - 8:20 PM ET San Francisco + 1 500 ( NFC WEST GOY)
Seattle - Over 40 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/28/2012 07:24 PM

Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 17
The final week of the NFL regular season always offers unique challenges to sports bettors. Sharps evaluated the openers to see if oddsmakers had properly reflected “need” into the equation or all the playoff contenders. Though, as we go to press, some “meaningless” games still don’t even have a line yet because it’s not clear how many starters will be playing at key positions.

This makes it a very important time to pay attention to how the sharps are betting!

Because there’s such a dramatic dichotomy this week between games that matter and games that don’t (in terms of the playoff race), we’re going to split everything up into two groups. First, let’s go in rotation order through the games that matter to at least one team on the field for either playoff qualification, or seeding position. After that, we’ll then study the meaningless games to see who sharps bet the openers that did come up.

Games that matter, in rotation order…

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND:
Note that this has been time-changed to a late afternoon start. New England opened at -11, but was bet down to +10 by the Wise Guys. This is Sharp money going against the team that needs to win. Miami’s defense gets respect from the Sharps (and has all year). New England’s recent slump is also an influence here. Sharps assume a divisional dog with revenge that has a first year head coach and a rookie quarterback will show up with some intensity. THIS is Miami’s playoff game as it relates to setting a tone for next year according to the Sharps we’ve talked to. Note that we also saw a big move on the Under because of respect for Miami’s defense. An opener near 50 has been bet all the way down to 46. Potential weather influences are also in play here. If we don’t mention the Over/Under in the remaining games, it’s because there weren’t any sharp indicators on that total as of press time.

BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI:
The Bengals opened at -3, but the dog has been receiving sharp support at that number. Most stores are now below the critical number…without Cincinnati money coming in to drive it back up. That tells you fairly dramatically that sharps like Baltimore, and will like them even more in two team teasers if they’re positioned to drive a dog of +1.5/+2.5 up to +7.5/+8.5. We also have Under money here, with an opener of 43 being bet down to 41. If you’re wondering what’s at stake in this game…Baltimore has a chance to catch New England for the #3 seed if the Ravens win and the Patriots are upset by Miami. That would mean a home game rematch against these very same Bengals instead of a home game against Indianapolis.

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Houston was hit hard here by sharps as an opener of -4 is up to -7 on the assumption that Houston will play hard to clinch their #1 seed in the AFC, while Indianapolis has nothing to play for with their #5 seed set in stone. The line didn’t move past the key number of seven, which tells you sharps liked the Texans below the key number…but not at it.

PHILADELPHIA AT NY GIANTS:
This game was bet down when it was announced that Michael Vick would be back to quarterback the Eagles because of an injury to Nick Foles. The Giants had opened at -9.5 in a game they had to win just to have a chance to reach the playoffs. Vick is such an upgrade over Foles that the number fell to NYG -7. Once again, we have the sharps betting a game to a key number, but not past it.

DALLAS AT WASHINGTON:
We have another time change here, as this one was time-changed to prime time for national coverage on NBC. The winner claims the NFC East title and a #4 seed in the NFC. Washington could still back into a Wildcard if they lose…though that option may be off the table by kickoff. The Redskins opened at -3.5 on their home field. Sharps bet the underdog Cowboys down to +3. Now that we’re sitting on the most popular key number, sharps will fade any public moves off the three before kickoff. The opening total of 50 has been bet down to 48.5 because of the potential for playoff intensity and weather.

CHICAGO AT DETROIT:
No movement here, as Chicago opened at -3 on the road and stood pat. Even though this is a must-win for the Bears, sharps do respect this home dog in a divisional game…and they’re not fond of laying points on the road with Jay Cutler. We’re hearing sharps believe this is the right line. They’ll fade any square move off the three before kickoff.

GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA:
Another time change game here, with a 4:25 ET start now in place. Similar situation to the game above with a three-point road favorite standing. Though, there are rumors of sharp action depending on news of Adrian Peterson’s abdomen injury. He’s missed some practice this week. Green Bay clinches the #2 seed and a bye if they win this game. Minnesota wins a Wildcard berth if they can spring the upset. Sharps would hit the Packers if they get confirmation before kickoff that Peterson will be less than 100%. Otherwise, they’ll fade any line moves caused by public money.

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER:
Not much interest in this game from sharps. Denver opened as a huge 16-point favorite. Sharps assume Denver will take care of business against a team that would clinch the #1 seed by losing.

ARIZONA AT SAN FRANCISCO:
The 49ers also opened as a big favorite. The opener of -15 was bet up to -16.5. It didn’t go to the key number of 17 though, as oddsmakers are confident sharp money would come in on the defensive dog at that line. Arizona doesn’t need to lose the way Kansas City does! San Francisco will know by kickoff if they have a chance to catch Green Bay for the #2 seed.

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE:
Seattle opened at -10, and was bet up to -11. They’ve been winning by big margins recently, and sharps thought the opener offered value. Note that Seattle would take the NFC West if they win here and San Francisco gets upset by Arizona. Sharps are of the opinion that San Francisco will take care of business relatively early…which would make the second half meaningless for Seattle. That’s why there wasn’t a bigger move to a higher number. We can tell you now that sharps believe in Seattle, and are looking to back them in their Wildcard game against the NFC East winner.

Sharp action in meaningless games, going in rotation order…

NY JETS AT BUFFALO:
Buffalo opened at -3.5, but the line was bet back to the field goal when it became clear that Mark Sanchez would return to the Jets lineup to replace the injured Greg McElroy. The total has dropped from 41 to 39 because of the potential for weather. We’re hearing an additional drop maybe in the offing.

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH:
No line yet because of the injury situation at quarterback for Cleveland.

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE:
Tennessee opened at -4 and has stayed there. We’re hearing of no sharp interest in this one unless there’s surprising injury news before in the hours before kickoff.

TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA: No line yet.

CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS:
New Orleans has been bet up from -4 to -5.5 because sharps believe New Orleans will bring more intensity to the matchup. Carolina was lethargic in a quiet win over lowly Oakland last week, while the Saints beat Dallas on the road. The Saints and Drew Brees typically get sharp respect at home at reasonable prices.

OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO: No line yet.

This will be a very heavily bet NFL weekend from the public because so many people are in Las Vegas for New Year’s. The big TV games in particular may see lines moves from square money. Keep an eye on that Sunday morning (and all day in the lead up to Dallas-Washington). Remember that sharps fade the public!

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/28/2012 07:25 PM

NFL odds: Week 17 opening line report

It’s the final week of the NFL regular season and many of the Week 17 games have postseason implications. None more so than games involving the NFC East.

Three teams – New York, Dallas and Washington – are still battling for playoff berths and the division crown is on the line Sunday when the Cowboys visit the Redskins.

Dallas at Washington (-3.5, 50)

There’s no team hotter than the Redskins, who are on a six-game winning streak straight up and against the spread. Washington prevailed 38-31 over Dallas in Week 12 at Cowboys Stadium and can wrap up the NFC East with a win Sunday night. The Redskins can also clinch a playoff berth if the Bears and Vikings both drop their respective finales. This betting line is a mirror image of the line in Week 12, when the Cowboys were 3.5-point home faves.

Green Bay at Minnesota (3, 46)

There’s no shortage of storylines heading into this clash between NFC North foes. The Vikings were written off after their Week 13 loss at Green Bay, but have rebounded with a three-game SU and ATS win streak to catapult them back into the playoff picture. Green Bay is coming off a 55-7 demolition of the Titans but still has some work to do to secure a first-round bye. The Packers are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run.

Kansas City at Denver (-16, 42)

The Broncos still have plenty to play for in their season finale and oddsmakers are putting them to the test with a daunting 16-point spread – their highest of the season. Denver couldn’t cover the 10 points in the previous Week 12 meeting at Arrowhead and Kansas City will relish the role of spoiler in this one. The Broncos can clinch a first-round bye and even home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and some help.

Houston at Indianapolis (5, 44)

Rookie quarterback Andrew Luck successfully led Indy to the playoffs with a seven-point win over Kansas City on Sunday, but Houston has plenty to play for heading into its finale. The Texans were held to just six points by the Vikings on Sunday and oddsmakers are banking on a rebound performance from the offense this week. Houston can clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and little luck.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/28/2012 07:26 PM

NFL playoff scenarios: Week 17 hits and misses

Every spot in the AFC has been decided, while the NFC East and the conference’s last two berths are still up for grabs heading into the final weekend.

Here’s a look at Sunday’s games with playoff implications and the contests that don’t mean a darn thing.

Games with playoff implications:

Houston at Indianapolis
The Texans have clinched the AFC South and can earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win in Week 17.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
This game is a must-win for the Giants, who also need help to earn a playoff berth.

Chicago at Detroit
The Bears need to take business in Detroit and hope Green Bay knocks off Minnesota in order to play January football.

Kansas City at Denver
Denver can earn a first-round bye with a win over the lowly Chiefs.

Arizona at San Francisco
The Niners can clinch the NFC West with a win.

St. Louis at Seattle
The Seahawks can clinch the NFC West with a win, combined with a San Francisco loss.

Green Bay at Minnesota
This is a must-win for both teams. Green Bay can clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC and Minnesota needs a win to clinch a playoff berth.

Miami at New England
The Patriots hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with Denver and can earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win over the Fish paired with a Broncos loss.

Dallas at Washington
The Redskins can clinch the NFC East with a win over the Cowboys, who also need a win to clinch the division. Dallas has been eliminated from wild-card contention.

Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Ravens were assured of a home playoff game after Sunday’s 33-14 triumph over the Giants and the Bengals punched their ticket to the postseason with a 13-10 victory over the Steelers.

Meaningless Games:

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Jacksonville at Tennessee

N.Y Jets at Buffalo

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Carolina at New Orleans

Oakland at San Diego

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24480 Followers:32
12/28/2012 07:28 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

Dallas at Washington
The Redskins look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games against Dallas. Washington is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Redskins favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 30

Game 301-302: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 126.929; Buffalo 126.993
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: Miami at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 133.093; New England 145.612
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 10; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10); Under

Game 305-306: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.262; Cincinnati 136.088
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 307-308: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.481; Pittsburgh 133.167
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 309-310: Houston at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 136.397; Indianapolis 128.003
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 119.324; Tennessee 128.863
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 126.476; NY Giants 130.988
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+7 1/2); Over

Game 315-316: Dallas at Washington (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.004; Washington 138.157
Dunkel Line: Washington by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Washington by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-3); Under

Game 317-318: Chicago at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.177; Detroit 132.120
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Over

Game 319-320: Green Bay at Minnesota (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.563; Minnesota 132.130
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under

Game 321-322: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.549; Atlanta 140.547
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 17; 38
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 323-324: Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.370; New Orleans 132.828
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+5 1/2); Over

Game 325-326: Kansas City at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 122.574; Denver 137.006
Dunkel Line: Denver by 14 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Denver by 17; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+17); Over

Game 327-328: Oakland at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.503; San Diego 137.082
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 15 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 329-330: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.599; San Francisco 139.614
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14; 43
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 17; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+17); Over

Game 331-332: St. Louis at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.510; Seattle 149.603
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 22; 37
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10 1/2); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: