Falcons (12-2) @ Lions (4-10)-- Atlanta had big win over Giants last week, but they've lost two of last three road games (win was 24-23 in Tampa); they're 2-3 as an away favorite, with road wins by 16-24-7-1-13 points. Detroit had hideous loss to the Cardinals last week, allowing two more return TDs. For season, Lions don't have a return TD; their opponents have nine. Detroit is 23-11 in its history against the Falcons, but 1-3 in last four; Atlanta is 3-2 in last five visits here. NFC South non-divisional road faves are 4-1 vs spread; NFC North underdogs are 3-5, 1-0 at home. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; six of last eight Detroit games went over.
Titans (5-9) @ Packers (10-4)-- Tennessee won rare Monday night appearance, now heads to frozen tundra on short week with nothing to play for, vs a Packer squad thats won three in row, eight of last nine, covering five of last six, but they did trail four of last five games at halftime, which is problem if laying 13 points. Titans won last three series games; they've won four of five visits to Lambeau, with last visit in '04. Tennessee is 3-3 as a road dog, covering last three on road; their road losses are by 28-24-23-5-4 points. AFC South road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 6-10. Last five Green Bay games, four of last five Titan tilts stayed under the total.
Raiders (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)-- Carolina showing signs of life, winning three of last four games after 2-8 start; they've run ball for 171.7 ypg last three weeks, as Newton's mobility has helped. Panthers are 1-4 vs spread as favorites; dogs are 10-4 vs spread in their games this year. Oakland snapped 6-game skid with a sloppy 15-0, TD-less win over rival Chiefs last week; they're 1-5 on road, with losses by 22-31-3-35-24 points. NFC South home favorites are 7-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West underdogs are 7-15-1, 4-9 on road. Teams split four series games; with visitor winning last two. Last four Oakland games stayed under total; three of last four Panther games went over.
Bills (5-9) @ Dolphins (6-8)-- Buffalo was +3 in turnovers, beat Miami 19-14 in Thursday night game five weeks ago, just its third win in last nine series games. Bills lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 9-28-27 points. Miami is 4-3 at home, 1-2 this year; since 2003, they're a ridiculously bad 9-33 vs spread as a home favorite (4-4 in last eight). Bills lost last three road games by 12-6-7; they're 2-4 as road underdog this year, and scored 13.8 ppg in four grass games. Dolphins lost five of last seven games, but they're last team to beat Seahawks. AFC East home teams are 3-6 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 if favored. Four of Miami's last five home games stayed under the total.
Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)-- Do-or-die for Steeler team that lost three of last four games, with underdog winning all four and covering last seven Steeler games. Bengals won/covered five of last six games; they've won five of last six on road, are 2-1 as road dogs this year. Cincy has +10 turnover ratio in last eight games, after being -7 in first six. Pitt (-2.5) ran ball for 167 yards, won 24-17 at Cincy in Week 7; Steelers outgained Cincy 431-185 in what was Bengals' third loss in row at time. Pitt won 10 of last 12 series games, winning last five by average of 13 points. Cincy lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 14-17-16-28 points. AFC North home teams are 4-3 in divisional games, 2-2 at home.
Patriots (10-4) @ Jaguars (2-12)-- New England can get first-round bye if they win last two games and Denver loses once, so they'll keep pedal to floor here, in game after they got waxed by 49ers. NE is 4-1 as road favorite this year, winning on road by 21-24-30-7 points, with loss at Seattle (not counting London game, a big win over Rams). AFC South home dogs are 6-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East favorites are 11-9 vs spread, 4-3 on road. 11 of last 12 Patriot games went over total; three of last four Jaguar games stayed under. Jax is 0-6 in games that went over total (3-3 vs spread), losing by average of 16 points- they are 1-5 as home underdogs, losing home games by 20-17-38-17-17-7 points.
Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12)-- Indy makes playoffs with win here, great story, but only one of its nine wins (27-10 at Jax) was by more than seven points, so laying lumber with them is iffy. Colts are 3-4 SU on road, covering only game as road fave. Chiefs gained total of 119 yards in ugly 15-0 loss at rival Raiders last week; they've lost 10 of last 11 games, scoring one TD on 22 drives in last two games, and that came on 80-yard run on first play two games ago. Indy won 10 of last 12 series games, five of last six here, but last visit here was in '04. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road; AFC West dogs are 7-15-1, 3-6-1 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Chief games.
Saints (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)-- Dallas is finding ways to win; they've won last three games and five of last six, scoring 22.3 ppg just in second half of those six games, but Cowboys are 1-6 vs spread when favored this year- since 2003, they are 8-36 vs spread as a home favorite. Saints lost three of last four games; they're 2-5 on road, 1-2 as road dog- they've won six of last seven series games, taking last three games played here, scoring 33 ppg. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-13 vs spread, 5-8 at home; NFC South underdogs are 10-6 vs spread, 10-3 on road. Five of Saints' seven road games, three of last four Dallas games went over the total. Underdogs covered last five Dallas games.
Redskins (8-6) @ Eagles (4-10)-- Washington outrushed Philly 169-80 in Week 11's 31-6 win, just their second win in last seven series games; they also averaged 11.6 ypa and were +3 in turnovers. Redskins are 4-3 in last seven visits here, and are on serious roll, winning/covering last five games after 3-6 start, and it hasn't mattered which rookie QB has played- they're 4-3 on road, scoring 38+ points in three of four wins. Eagles lost nine of last twn games, with only win coming on last playof games; all four of their wins are by 1 or 2 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season, 1-2 if home dogs. Three of last four games for both teams went over total
Rams (6-7-1) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Tampa Bay got squashed 41-0 last week in Superdome; league trend this year has been for teams like that to bounce back in good form next week, but Bucs have now lost four games in row, giving up an average of 29.8 ppg. Rams laid egg at home vs Vikings last week, ending playoff hopes for this year; they've covered five of six true road games this season, going 2-0-1 SU in last three. Home teams won seven of last eight series games,with Bucs 5-1 in series since losing '99 NFC title game in St Louis- Rams lost last five visits here, by 10-3-12-1-21 points. Four of Bucs' last five games stayed under; six of Rams' last eight went over.