cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/20/2012 09:51 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

First Post

Falcons (12-2) @ Lions (4-10)-- Atlanta had big win over Giants last week, but they've lost two of last three road games (win was 24-23 in Tampa); they're 2-3 as an away favorite, with road wins by 16-24-7-1-13 points. Detroit had hideous loss to the Cardinals last week, allowing two more return TDs. For season, Lions don't have a return TD; their opponents have nine. Detroit is 23-11 in its history against the Falcons, but 1-3 in last four; Atlanta is 3-2 in last five visits here. NFC South non-divisional road faves are 4-1 vs spread; NFC North underdogs are 3-5, 1-0 at home. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; six of last eight Detroit games went over.

Titans (5-9) @ Packers (10-4)-- Tennessee won rare Monday night appearance, now heads to frozen tundra on short week with nothing to play for, vs a Packer squad thats won three in row, eight of last nine, covering five of last six, but they did trail four of last five games at halftime, which is problem if laying 13 points. Titans won last three series games; they've won four of five visits to Lambeau, with last visit in '04. Tennessee is 3-3 as a road dog, covering last three on road; their road losses are by 28-24-23-5-4 points. AFC South road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 6-10. Last five Green Bay games, four of last five Titan tilts stayed under the total.

Raiders (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)-- Carolina showing signs of life, winning three of last four games after 2-8 start; they've run ball for 171.7 ypg last three weeks, as Newton's mobility has helped. Panthers are 1-4 vs spread as favorites; dogs are 10-4 vs spread in their games this year. Oakland snapped 6-game skid with a sloppy 15-0, TD-less win over rival Chiefs last week; they're 1-5 on road, with losses by 22-31-3-35-24 points. NFC South home favorites are 7-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West underdogs are 7-15-1, 4-9 on road. Teams split four series games; with visitor winning last two. Last four Oakland games stayed under total; three of last four Panther games went over.

Bills (5-9) @ Dolphins (6-8)-- Buffalo was +3 in turnovers, beat Miami 19-14 in Thursday night game five weeks ago, just its third win in last nine series games. Bills lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 9-28-27 points. Miami is 4-3 at home, 1-2 this year; since 2003, they're a ridiculously bad 9-33 vs spread as a home favorite (4-4 in last eight). Bills lost last three road games by 12-6-7; they're 2-4 as road underdog this year, and scored 13.8 ppg in four grass games. Dolphins lost five of last seven games, but they're last team to beat Seahawks. AFC East home teams are 3-6 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 if favored. Four of Miami's last five home games stayed under the total.

Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)-- Do-or-die for Steeler team that lost three of last four games, with underdog winning all four and covering last seven Steeler games. Bengals won/covered five of last six games; they've won five of last six on road, are 2-1 as road dogs this year. Cincy has +10 turnover ratio in last eight games, after being -7 in first six. Pitt (-2.5) ran ball for 167 yards, won 24-17 at Cincy in Week 7; Steelers outgained Cincy 431-185 in what was Bengals' third loss in row at time. Pitt won 10 of last 12 series games, winning last five by average of 13 points. Cincy lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 14-17-16-28 points. AFC North home teams are 4-3 in divisional games, 2-2 at home.

Patriots (10-4) @ Jaguars (2-12)-- New England can get first-round bye if they win last two games and Denver loses once, so they'll keep pedal to floor here, in game after they got waxed by 49ers. NE is 4-1 as road favorite this year, winning on road by 21-24-30-7 points, with loss at Seattle (not counting London game, a big win over Rams). AFC South home dogs are 6-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East favorites are 11-9 vs spread, 4-3 on road. 11 of last 12 Patriot games went over total; three of last four Jaguar games stayed under. Jax is 0-6 in games that went over total (3-3 vs spread), losing by average of 16 points- they are 1-5 as home underdogs, losing home games by 20-17-38-17-17-7 points.

Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12)-- Indy makes playoffs with win here, great story, but only one of its nine wins (27-10 at Jax) was by more than seven points, so laying lumber with them is iffy. Colts are 3-4 SU on road, covering only game as road fave. Chiefs gained total of 119 yards in ugly 15-0 loss at rival Raiders last week; they've lost 10 of last 11 games, scoring one TD on 22 drives in last two games, and that came on 80-yard run on first play two games ago. Indy won 10 of last 12 series games, five of last six here, but last visit here was in '04. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road; AFC West dogs are 7-15-1, 3-6-1 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Chief games.

Saints (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)-- Dallas is finding ways to win; they've won last three games and five of last six, scoring 22.3 ppg just in second half of those six games, but Cowboys are 1-6 vs spread when favored this year- since 2003, they are 8-36 vs spread as a home favorite. Saints lost three of last four games; they're 2-5 on road, 1-2 as road dog- they've won six of last seven series games, taking last three games played here, scoring 33 ppg. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-13 vs spread, 5-8 at home; NFC South underdogs are 10-6 vs spread, 10-3 on road. Five of Saints' seven road games, three of last four Dallas games went over the total. Underdogs covered last five Dallas games.

Redskins (8-6) @ Eagles (4-10)-- Washington outrushed Philly 169-80 in Week 11's 31-6 win, just their second win in last seven series games; they also averaged 11.6 ypa and were +3 in turnovers. Redskins are 4-3 in last seven visits here, and are on serious roll, winning/covering last five games after 3-6 start, and it hasn't mattered which rookie QB has played- they're 4-3 on road, scoring 38+ points in three of four wins. Eagles lost nine of last twn games, with only win coming on last playof games; all four of their wins are by 1 or 2 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season, 1-2 if home dogs. Three of last four games for both teams went over total

Rams (6-7-1) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Tampa Bay got squashed 41-0 last week in Superdome; league trend this year has been for teams like that to bounce back in good form next week, but Bucs have now lost four games in row, giving up an average of 29.8 ppg. Rams laid egg at home vs Vikings last week, ending playoff hopes for this year; they've covered five of six true road games this season, going 2-0-1 SU in last three. Home teams won seven of last eight series games,with Bucs 5-1 in series since losing '99 NFC title game in St Louis- Rams lost last five visits here, by 10-3-12-1-21 points. Four of Bucs' last five games stayed under; six of Rams' last eight went over.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/20/2012 09:53 PM

NFL

Week 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 22

8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Atlanta is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta


Sunday, December 23

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. HOUSTON
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. NY JETS
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
San Diego is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. TAMPA BAY
St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing St. Louis

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. DALLAS
New Orleans is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. JACKSONVILLE
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Carolina is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Green Bay's last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Indianapolis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Kansas City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

4:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. DENVER
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Cleveland is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Denver's last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games

4:15 PM
CHICAGO vs. ARIZONA
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Giants last 9 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
Baltimore is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games

8:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 20 games at home


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/20/2012 09:55 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

First Update

Giants (8-6) @ Ravens (9-5)-- Baltimore in freefall, losing last three games, while giving up 23-31-34 points; they should get lift from return of Ray Lewis- I'm not fond of teams who fire coordinators in December, especially when they replace guy with Jim Caldwell, who never called plays before. Ravens won three of last four games in seldom-played series. Giants lost four of last six games, including last three on road; they allowed average of 157 rushing yards over last three tilts. NFC East favorites are 6-13 vs spread, 1-5 on road; NFC North underdogs are 7-8, 3-3 at home. Five of last six Giant games stayed under total; last three Raven games went over. Next week's game is more critical for Baltimore.

Vikings (8-6) @ Texans (12-2)--Houston clinches home field thru AFC tourney with win here; they're 5-2 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 20-6-24-30-12-12 points (lost to Packers). Minnesota is 2-5 on road; they had three return TDs in their two wins- they're 2-3 as road underdogs this year. Vikings ran ball for 240-171-213 yards last three games, as he chases Dickerson's single season record. Vikings won both series meetings, 28-21/34-28ot. NFC North road underdogs are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South home favorites are 5-1. Three of last four Viking games stayed under; four of last six Houston home games went over the total.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/20/2012 09:57 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 16

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 15's action.

Atlanta at Detroit (3.5, 50.5)

Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a triumph in the Motor City. The Falcons bounced back from a 10-point road loss to Carolina in a big way as they recorded a dominating 34-0 home win over the New York Giants last week. Atlanta ran more than it passed for just the second time this season, gaining 125 yards on 35 carries while attempting just 28 passes. Detroit is looking to snap its six-game losing streak. Things hit rock bottom for the Lions last Sunday, when they suffered a 38-10 loss in Arizona to the Cardinals. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall.

Tennessee at Green Bay (-12.5, 46)

The Packers clinched the NFC North with last week's 21-13 win at Chicago and must win their final two games and get help in order to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the first-round bye. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson sat out again last week with a bad hamstring and is questionable Sunday. Tennessee is coming off a 14-10 victory over the New York Jets on Monday that ended a three-game losing streak. Since a Week 10 loss to Chicago, the Titans rank third in total defense (285.8 yards per game), and fourth giving up 17.6 points per game. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.

Oakland at Carolina (-9.5, 46)

The Panthers, who are just 2-5 at home, are attempting to end the campaign on a high note as they seek their third consecutive victory. Quarterback Cam Newton has been outstanding over the last four weeks. The Auburn product leads the league with a 113.1 passer rating in that span with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Raiders snapped a six-game slide last Sunday with a 15-0 triumph over Kansas City in their home finale. Sunday's shutout against the Chiefs was the team's first blanking since 2002. Sebastian Janikowski provided all the offense, kicking a season-high five field goals. Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.

Buffalo at Miami (-4, 41.5)

The Dolphins are still in playoff contention after last week’s 24-3 win over Jacksonville, but will need a ton of help in order to play January football. Running back Reggie Bush racked up 104 yards on the ground in the victory– his first 100-yard effort since Week 2. The Bills will finish with a losing record for an eighth consecutive season after last Sunday’s 50-17 rout by Seattle. Buffalo, which yielded a season-low 184 yards in a 19-14 win over the Dolphins on Nov. 15, has become the eighth NFL team - and first since the 1986 Jets - to allow 45 points four times in one season. Miami has won three of four at home over Buffalo and is 4-1 ATS in its last five December games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-4, 43.5)

The Bengals will try to keep their division title hopes alive - while eliminating the host Steelers from the playoff race entirely. A Cincinnati win Sunday would clinch a playoff spot while knocking the Steelers out of contention. The Bengals, who are winners of five of six after thumping Philadelphia 34-13 on Dec. 13, are well rested but have lost their past five against Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is allowing just 12.5 points per game over its last six – the best in the NFL in that stretch - while forcing 15 turnovers. The Steelers have numerous injuries to their secondary and will be without cornerback Ike Taylor (ankle) for a third straight game. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last nine versus AFC North foes.

New England at Jacksonville (14.5, 50)

New England rallied from a 31-3 deficit a week ago to tie San Francisco but ultimately suffered a 41-34 setback to snap its seven-game winning streak. However, the Patriots racked up 407 yards of offense in the second half against the stout defense of the 49ers. The offense could get an added boost if TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) suits up this week. The Jaguars have lost three straight, failing to cover in all three contests. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is back practicing, but is a long shot to play Sunday.

Indianapolis at Kansas City (7, 41.5)

Indianapolis has won seven of nine but missed out on a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a 29-17 loss to the Texans last week. Quarterback Andrew Luck has completed only 46.1 percent of his passes in three games this month and has been intercepted nine times in his last five contests. The Chiefs gained a season-low 119 yards and recorded only seven first downs in a 15-0 loss at Oakland last week. Starting quarterback Brady Quinn is dealing with a rib injury but coach Romeo Crennel said Thursday he expects him to suit up against the Colts. Kansas City has recorded fewer than 10 points in four of its last five games. Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.

New Orleans at Dallas (-1, 51.5)

The Cowboys are still on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, but their chances improved dramatically after topping Pittsburgh in overtime last Sunday for their fifth win in six games. Cornerback Morris Claiborne expects to play Sunday after missing last week's victory over Pittsburgh with a concussion. Running back DeMarco Murray is also probable despite missing practice on Wednesday. Dallas is 3-0 since Murray returned from a foot injury that shelved him for six contests. The Saints posted a 41-0 home triumph over the Bucs last Sunday. Despite the shutout, New Orleans' defense still ranks last in the league as it has allowed an average of 446.2 yards per contest. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Washington at Philadelphia (6, 45.5)

Washington is tied with Dallas and New York for the NFC East lead but owns the tiebreaker over both teams. Backup quarterback Kirk Cousins led the Redskins to their fifth straight win - a 38-21 victory over the Browns last week in the absence of Robert Griffin III. Griffin (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday and is expected to start against the Eagles. Philadelphia fell 34-13 to Cincinnati in its last effort, committing a season-high five turnovers in the process. Running back LeSean McCoy (concussion) was carted off in the final minutes of a 31-6 loss to the Skins on Nov. 18, but is expected to suit up Sunday. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3, 44.5)

St. Louis saw its playoff chances all but snuffed out with last week's 36-22 home loss to Minnesota that snapped a three-game winning streak. The Rams, who had allowed only 42 points during its three-game winning streak, recorded a pair of sacks last week to add to their NFC-leading total of 41. Tampa Bay was once in the driver's seat for a playoff slot but has tumbled out of contention in the wake of a four-game losing streak, including a 41-0 mauling at New Orleans a week ago. The Bucs defense has been sturdy against the run but awful against the pass, ranking last in the league with 310.6 yards allowed per game. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Minnesota at Houston (-9.5, 45)

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson trampled the Rams for 210 yards and a score in last week's 36-22 victory, a result that kept Minnesota's playoff hopes alive. The Vikings will be in tough against a Texans team that owns the AFC's top seed and is coming off a 29-17 win over Indianapolis. Peterson has amassed 1,313 rushing yards in the last eight weeks - equaling Arian Foster's output for the entire season. Peterson is in the midst of the most incredible stretch of games by any running back in the history of football. A year removed from major knee surgery, the 27-year-old is just 294 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105 set in 1985. The Texans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.

San Diego at N.Y. Jets (-1, 39)

New York's fleeting postseason hopes were dashed with another wretched offensive performance in Monday's 14-10 loss at Tennessee - a defeat that finally prompted coach Rex Ryan to pull the plug on Mark Sanchez and elevated third-stringer Greg McElroy to starting quarterback. San Diego flat-lined in a 31-7 home loss to Carolina and will miss the postseason for a third straight year. Adding to the misery were season-ending injuries to leading rusher Ryan Mathews (collarbone) and wide receiver Malcom Floyd (ankle). The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Cleveland at Denver (-13.5, 44.5)

Denver can move closer to earning a first-round bye in the playoffs by extending its winning streak to 10 with a victory over Cleveland, which has dropped nine straight meetings. The Broncos are coming off a 34-17 victory over the Ravens in a game that Peyton Manning threw for a season-low 204 yards. The Denver defense, which ranks fourth allowing 307.1 yards per game, held Baltimore to 56 rushing yards and scored on a pick-six. The Browns’ .217 all-time winning percentage against the Broncos is their lowest against any NFL team. But Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Chicago at Arizona (5, 36.5)

The Bears' prolonged slump has left them likely needing victories in back-to-back road games with help in order to reach the playoffs. A 21-13 loss to Green Bay last Sunday dropped the Bears behind the competition in the race for the conference’s two wild-card spots. The defeat was also Chicago’s seventh in a row in the month of December. The Bears are averaging 14.2 points over their last six games after producing 29.5 per contest in their first eight. More pressure will be placed on running back Matt Forte this week after backup Michael Bush (ribs) was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The Arizona defense leads the league with 22 interceptions, including snagging three picks in last week’s 38-10 win over Detroit. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five December games.

N.Y. Giants at Baltimore (1, 47)

Baltimore will try to avoid its first four-game slide in five seasons when they host the Giants. Running back Ray Rice was held to just 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Broncos and now faces a New York stop unit allowing 123.7 rushing yards per game. The Giants were shutout for the first time in seven years in Sunday’s loss to the Falcons, but could be getting some key starters back after running back Ahmad Bradshaw (knee), cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and safety Kenny Phillips (knee) all sat out against the Falcons. All three have returned to practice in some fashion this week. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games.

San Francisco at Seattle (Pick, 39)

San Francisco’s top-ranked scoring defense could be in for a major test Sunday night against the suddenly high-scoring Seattle offense. There’s plenty at stake as the Seahawks can clinch their second playoff berth in three seasons and the 49ers are one win shy of securing their second consecutive NFC West title. After setting a team record for points in a 58-0 win over Arizona on Dec. 9, the Seahawks became the first team in 62 years to score at least 50 points in consecutive weeks with their rout of Buffalo last week. San Francisco has won four straight in this divisional matchup following a 13-6 victory on Oct. 18, but Seattle is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. The Seahawks are also 5-0 ATS in their last five versus a team with a winning record.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/20/2012 10:02 PM

Falcons Can Wrap Up Home-Field Advantage At Detroit

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/22/2012 at 8:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Falcons -3, O/U 51
Television: ESPN

Atlanta Falcons: Coming off just their second loss of the season, the Falcons (12-2 straight-up, 8-5-1 against the spread) got back into the win column with a 34-0 whitewashing of the Giants in Week 15. Quarterback Matt Ryan tossed three touchdown passes, two of them to wide receiver Julio Jones, and Atlanta ended with nearly an 18-minute advantage on the clock in a game that closed as a Pick'em. The final fell more than two touchdowns short of the total to mark the fourth "under" in the last five Atlanta contests. The Falcons are 5-2 on the NFL highway this season, going 4-2-1 against the spread and 4-3 "over." Atlanta can sew up home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with a victory this week or a San Francisco loss. The Falcons have won the last two meetings with Detroit, most recently in 2011 with a 23-16 victory in Motown as 4½-point underdogs.

Detroit Lions: "Off the rails" is how Coach Jim Schwartz described the current state of the Lions (4-10 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) following their sixth consecutive loss last week at Arizona. Detroit took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter before the Cardinals scored 24 unanswered points, and QB Matthew Stafford had two of his three interceptions returned for touchdowns. The game closed with the Lions laying 5½-6 points to an Arizona squad that had dropped its nine previous trips to the gridiron. The Lions have won just two of their six home games this season, going 1-4-1 against the spread and four of the six contests jumping above the total. Betting the high side of totals in Detroit tilts has been very profitable at 10-4 overall this season, but four of the last five in this series stayed "under" the mark, and the past five clashes in Detroit also failed to reach the number.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/20/2012 10:04 PM

Steelers, Bengals Fight for Playoffs In Key Divisional Game

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/23/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Steelers -4, O/U 43
Television: CBS

Cincinnati Bengals: True road warriors this campaign, the Bengals (8-6 straight-up, 7-6-1 against the spread) look to move closer to the playoffs in a clash of AFC North rivals on Sunday at Pittsburgh. Cincinnati bounced back from a tough loss to Dallas with a 34-13 triumph in Philadelphia last Sunday, easily covering as 4½-point chalk after trailing by three at the half. The Bengals erased that 13-10 deficit with 24 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes and ended up dominating the clock by better than a full quarter. The final snapped a five-game run for the "under" in Cincy games, and the Bengals rank sixth in total defense (320.4 yards per game) plus 10th in fewest points allowed (20.9 points per game). Second-year quarterback Andy Dalton has thrown five touchdown passes in the past two games without an interception, and running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis has topped the 100-yard mark in four of the last five games to reach a career-best 1,080 yards on the year.

Pittsburgh Steelers: This is a must-win for the Steelers (7-7 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) after dropping their fourth contest in five weeks at Dallas last Sunday in overtime. The frustration was evident after the game in QB Ben Roethlisberger's comments, but Coach Mike Tomlin smoothed it over this week. Pittsburgh backers have also been frustrated with just one cover in the last six weeks per the closing spreads, and that was a 23-20 upset at a struggling Baltimore as a 6½-point underdog. The Steelers take aim at their third consecutive season sweep of the Bengals after winning 24-17 as 1-point favorites in Week 7 to extend the series win streak to five. All of the victories have been covers for the Steelers as well, with four of the last five clashes in Iron City staying "under" the total. That trend also plays well with eight of Pittsburgh's last nine at Heinz Field falling short of the scoreboard hurdle.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/20/2012 10:07 PM

Giants Desperate For Win Sunday At Ravens In Week 16

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/23/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Baltimore -1, O/U 47
Television: FOX

New York Giants: The Giants (8-6 straight-up, 6-7-1 against the spread) have seen this spread move solidly in their direction despite getting blown out 34-0 at Atlanta last week. New York is just 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six games with losses in the three away (scoring just 9.7 points per game). The defending Super Bowl champs are now in a three-way tie in the NFC East with Washington and Dallas, and this is a huge game for the team's playoff hopes. Quarterback Eli Manning needs to get his mojo back after the first regular-season shutout of his career. He was just 13-of-25 for 161 yards against Atlanta, also throwing two more picks to raise his yearly total to 15. The running game needs a big day and should get a boost with Ahmad Bradshaw (knee) probable after missing last game (click to check updated NFL injury report).

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens (9-5 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) also had a devastating loss last week, 34-17 at home to Peyton Manning and Denver. They’re reeling at 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three and are just one game ahead of Cincy for the AFC North lead. Quarterback Joe Flacco struggled last game (20-of-40 passing) despite Jim Caldwell taking over offensive coordinator duties from the fired Cam Cameron. The defense has also allowed 29.3 ppg the last three games, helping the "over" go 3-0. Linebacker Ray Lewis (tricep) is questionable to return after missing eight games while Terrell Suggs will continue to play through his biceps injury. The Giants and Ravens have met just twice since their January 2001 Super Bowl matchup (a 34-7 Baltimore win). The home team easily won and covered those two contests.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/20/2012 10:09 PM

Seahawks Host 49ers In Sunday Night Football Showdown

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/23/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Seahawks -1, O/U 40½
Television: NBC

San Francisco 49ers: The NFL puts Week 16 to rest with a big Sunday Night Football contest that could decide the NFC West with the Niners (10-3-1 straight-up, 9-5 against the spread) at the Seahawks. San Francisco picked up its second straight win and cover with a 41-34 upset at New England last Sunday as a 4-point road 'dog, nearly blowing a 31-3 lead early in the third quarter. The 49ers defense forced four turnovers to withstand a 443-yard passing performance by Patriots QB Tom Brady. Second-year QB Colin Kaepernick only completed 14 passes, but four went for San Fran touchdowns, setting a new career high in just his fifth NFL start. San Francisco picked up its fourth consecutive win in this series against the Seahawks with a 13-6 win at home back in Week 7. Seattle did have just enough to grab the cover as a 7½-point underdog for its second consecutive cover vs. the Niners.

Seattle Seahawks: Back-to-back 50-point efforts have the Seahawks (9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS) on a three-game winning and covering streak heading into this crucial showdown. The latest victim was Buffalo in Toronto as Seattle cruised to a 50-17 laugher, just the third "road" win in eight tries for Coach Pete Carroll's squad that will now close out the season at home, where the Seahawks are a perfect 6-0. Seattle rookie QB Russell Wilson ran for three scores and passed for another against the Bills, and the defense added its third touchdown in two games with Earl Thomas' pick-6 in the third quarter. The team's third-ranked rushing offense is led by running back Marshawn Lynch, who is approaching the 1,400-yard plateau for the season, and has 10 totes for scores. Seattle ranks fourth in turnover margin at plu-11, and the defense is second behind San Francisco allowing just 15.6 points per game. The last four Seahawks games have gone "over," but the last two in this series failed to reach the total.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/22/2012 07:13 PM

Falcons Can Wrap Up Home-Field Advantage At Detroit

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/22/2012 at 8:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Falcons -3, O/U 51
Television: ESPN

Atlanta Falcons: Coming off just their second loss of the season, the Falcons (12-2 straight-up, 8-5-1 against the spread) got back into the win column with a 34-0 whitewashing of the Giants in Week 15. Quarterback Matt Ryan tossed three touchdown passes, two of them to wide receiver Julio Jones, and Atlanta ended with nearly an 18-minute advantage on the clock in a game that closed as a Pick'em. The final fell more than two touchdowns short of the total to mark the fourth "under" in the last five Atlanta contests. The Falcons are 5-2 on the NFL highway this season, going 4-2-1 against the spread and 4-3 "over." Atlanta can sew up home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with a victory this week or a San Francisco loss. The Falcons have won the last two meetings with Detroit, most recently in 2011 with a 23-16 victory in Motown as 4½-point underdogs.

Detroit Lions: "Off the rails" is how Coach Jim Schwartz described the current state of the Lions (4-10 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) following their sixth consecutive loss last week at Arizona. Detroit took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter before the Cardinals scored 24 unanswered points, and QB Matthew Stafford had two of his three interceptions returned for touchdowns. The game closed with the Lions laying 5½-6 points to an Arizona squad that had dropped its nine previous trips to the gridiron. The Lions have won just two of their six home games this season, going 1-4-1 against the spread and four of the six contests jumping above the total. Betting the high side of totals in Detroit tilts has been very profitable at 10-4 overall this season, but four of the last five in this series stayed "under" the mark, and the past five clashes in Detroit also failed to reach the number.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
12/22/2012 07:15 PM

Total Talk - Week 16

December 22, 2012

Week 15 Recap

For the second straight week, totals went 8-8. For the most part, these results were clear-cut. We had a few bad beats, in particular the Denver-Baltimore and San Francisco-New England games. Those two contests saw 35 and 55 points posted respectively in the second-half of their games. Another outcome that should be mentioned is the Colts-Texans matchup, which had 40 points on the board after three quarters. Unfortunately for ‘over’ players, only six points were posted in the final 15 minutes. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 105-103-1.

Line Moves

The smart money produced a 4-1 record last week and if it wasn’t for the result in last week’s SNF affair between the 49ers and Patriots, you would’ve seen a 5-0 mark. This week, we already have a couple games that have moved more than 3 points. Here are all of the line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.

Tennessee at Green Bay: Line opened 47 and dropped to 44 ½
Buffalo at Miami: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41 ½
Indianapolis at Kansas City: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41 ½
New England at Jacksonville: Line opened at 49 and jumped to 50 1/2
San Diego at N.Y. Jets: Line opened 41 and dropped to 37 1/2
San Francisco at Seattle: Line opened at 40 ½ and dropped to 38 ½

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 2-1 in last week’s games under the lights. On the season, the ‘under’ has gone 29-17 (63%) in the primetime games. This week, bettors only have two games to follow with the first one taking place on Saturday.

Atlanta at Detroit: It’s certainly hard to argue for the ‘under’ when you look at Detroit’s defense, which has given up an average of 32 points per game the last six weeks. Most would expect Atlanta to get close to that number considering its averaging 27.4 PPG on the road. The Falcons defense posted a shutout last week but the unit hasn’t shown that much consistency this season. Detroit has seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home this season.

San Francisco at Seattle: The 49ers beat the Seahawks 13-6 in their first meeting on Oct. 18 and the closing total of 37 ½ points was never threatened. Since that game, San Francisco (5-2) and Seattle (6-1) have both leaned to the ‘over.’ The 49ers are coming off a 41-point performance, while the Seahawks have scored 50-plus points in each of the last two weeks. Weather could be dicey in the Great Northwest, with rain expected for the primetime battle.

Rematch Games

Betting the ‘over’ in the second meeting between divisional teams was a good look a few weeks ago but like any trend, it’s balancing out. The ‘over’ still holds a slight edge (15-12, 55%) but the ‘under’ has gone 10-5 (67%) in the last 15 rematches.

Buffalo at Miami: These teams met in a Thursday Night battle back in Week 10 and the Bills won 19-14 at home. In that game, Buffalo led 19-7 at the break and the only points (7) in the second-half came from Miami. The Bills have proven that they can light up the scoreboard, but they can also shoot blanks too. The Dolphins are limited offensively and this week’s total (41 ½) is much lower than the first meeting (45). Including the first encounter, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between this pair.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The first go ‘round in Week 7 saw the Steelers capture a 24-17 victory, which was their fifth straight win and cover over the Bengals. During this run, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 and that includes this year’s game in mid-October. Prior to last week’s ‘over’ against the Eagles, Cincinnati was on a 5-0 run to the ‘under.’ The Bengals’ defense has held their last six opponents to 20 or less while the Steelers’ unit has given up 20 or more points the last four weeks, which tells you how underrated Cincinnati is on that side of the ball. Or perhaps, it’s better to say Pittsburgh’s “D” is overrated? At Heinz Field, the Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 and it could be 6-0 if it wasn’t for the second-half fireworks in Week 14 against San Diego.

Washington at Philadelphia: The ‘under’ has cashed in four of the last five in this series. Washington walloped Philadelphia 31-6 on Nov. 18 and the game stayed ‘under’ the closing number of 45, which is close to this week’s number (45 ½). RGIII is expected back for Washington and that should only help an offense that has put up 30-plus points in four of the last five weeks. After watching the ‘under’ go 5-0 in the first five weeks, the Eagles have swung the other way with a 6-3 mark to the ‘over’ the last nine games.

San Francisco at Seattle: (See Above)

Fearless Predictions

After watching Seattle put up another 50-spot, I’m going to stay away from totals on the Seahawks for the rest of the season. With that the being said, they’ll probably get blanked against the 49ers this week. Even with the clear-cut loser in Seattle, we hit the ‘over’ ticket and drilled another teaser and managed to only lose a couple cents ($20) on the week. On the season, we’re up $840. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck and Merry Christmas to you and yours!

Best Over: Oakland-Carolina 46

Best Under: San Diego-N.Y. Jets 37 1/2

Best Team Total: Under 20 ½ N.Y. Jets

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36 Oakland-Carolina
Under 53 Cleveland-Denver
Under 46 ½ San Diego-N.Y. Jets

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: