cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 10:18 AM

Total Talk - Week 13

December 2, 2012

Week 12 Recap

After watching three shootouts on Thanksgiving, the ‘under’ produced a 9-3 mark on Sunday. I’m not sure what’s tougher to stomach, needing 10 points in one half to cash an ‘over’ ticket or listening to broadcaster Al Michaels reminding you that you still need it? For those who had the ‘over’ in the Packers-Giants, we apologize and hope it didn’t hurt too much. The MNF battle between Carolina and Philadelphia went ‘over’ which cut into the dominance of the ‘under’ (25-12) in games under the lights. On the season, the ‘over/under’ is knotted at 88-88-1.

Divisional Rematches

Finally, a divisional rematch went ‘under’ the number. It happened this past Thursday as Atlanta beat New Orleans, 23-13. Even though the final outcome didn’t threaten the closing number (54), a lot of points were left off the board. Thanks Drew Brees! Despite that result, the ‘over’ is still 10-3 (77%) this season when opponents meet in their second divisional game. I believe all things will balance out in the end and the difference with this week’s rematches is that the first meetings recently took place.

San Francisco at St. Louis: This pair met three weeks ago and the final score was a 24-24 tie. Including this game, four of the last five have gone ‘over’ the number. What’s different about this week’s meeting is the number, which is hovering around 41 points. That’s the highest total in the last seven encounters. The Rams have seen the ‘over’ cash in its last five games. Make a note that both these teams posted 31 last week and each club got 14 points from their defense.

Houston at Tennessee: These teams met on Sept. 30 and Houston blasted Tennessee 38-14 but two of the touchdowns were from the Texans defense. The Texans have shown some offense the last two weeks (43, 34) and they’re rested after the Thanksgiving Day win. Tennessee’s defense is still suspect, ranked second worst in points allowed (30.5 PPG). It appears that the Texans score but ‘over’ bettors will need the Titans to do their job and that’s tough at times with Jack Locker at QB. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last four in this series.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: If you’re playing this game, don’t pat yourself on the back if you win and don’t cry if you lose. Not having Ben Roethlisberger has watched the Steelers put up 10 and 14 points the last two week. Defensively, they’ve only allowed 33 combined points, 13 of them coming to Baltimore two weeks ago at home. The Ravens have scored 44, 31, 23, 31 and 55 points in their five home games this season. So another explosion wouldn’t be surprising, but still tough to pull the trigger here. Three of the last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number.

Philadelphia at Dallas: Here’s another game that’s probably not worth wagering but since it’s the SNF chase game, we’ll take a closer look. The Cowboys beat the Eagles 38-23 in Week 10 on the road. Dallas led 10-7 at half before outscoring the Birds 28-16 in the final 30 minutes, and 21 of those points from the ‘Boys came from the defense and special teams. Dallas has been exposed defensively at home this season, giving up 34, 29, 20 and 38 in the last four games. Not sure what you’re going to get out of the Eagles and their banged-up offense but the defense is allowing 25.6 PPG this season. The ‘under’ had hit in the three previous meetings before the first matchup this season.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: This is one of four totals this week that listed above 50 points (51). The Redskins and Giants both looked good last week, each club posting 38 points. Now you’re on MNF and the game actually means something for once. These teams met in mid-October and New York secured a 27-23 win albeit with a late touchdown. The combined 50 points stayed ‘under’ the closing total of 51 points. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings. You might have to toss out those results, since the ‘Skins are a different offense under RG3.

Line Moves

The smart money produced a 1-3 mark last weekend but should’ve gone 2-2 if the aforementioned Giants-Packers game doesn’t stay ‘under.’ Keep an eye on Carolina-Kansas City since a lot of outside issues are affecting the game. It might be better to pass that game all together, probably the better choice even before the tragedy. Here are the early moves for Week 13 at CRIS, which all leaned to the ‘under.’

Minnesota at Green Bay: Lined opened 47 and dropped to 45 1/2
Jacksonville at Buffalo: Line opened 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Carolina at Kansas City: Line opened 41 ½ and dropped to 39
Cincinnati at San Diego: Line opened 47 ½ and dropped to 45

Fearless Predictions

Week 12 produced a 3-1 mark and $190 of profit. The losing ticket was the Falcons team total (26) against Tampa Bay. They scored 24 and had plenty of chances to get there. On the season, we’re in the black for $670. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Philadelphia-Dallas 43

Best Under: Tampa Bay-Denver 51

Best Team Total: Over Philadelphia 16 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 34 Philadelphia-Dallas
Under 60 Tampa Bay-Denver
Under 45 Arizona-N.Y. Jets

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 10:21 AM




NFL | MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY
Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 14 points or less last game
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL | SEATTLE at CHICAGO
Play On - Any team vs the money line (SEATTLE) off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
105-52 since 1997. ( 66.9% | 0.0 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL | NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a win by 6 or less points
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 10:24 AM

Cardinals-Jets: 'It is an ugly game to cap'

The Arizona Cardinals have lost seven games in a row and have covered only once in their past eight. The New York Jets, meanwhile, have won only one of their past five and have covered only one of their last four.

What does it add up to?

"It is an ugly game to cap," says Mike Perry, oddsmaker at Sportsbook.ag. "The Jets are awful, but the Cards are a whole other level of bad. Arizona is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight. So I can see why 73 percent of the money is on the Jets."

Yes, believe it or not, bettors love the Jets this weekend and on Saturday they pushed New York from a 4.5-point fave to a 5.5-point fave.

It may be hard to fathom if you've watched Mark Sanchez this year or if you watched the Jets get obliterated by the Pats last week. Sanchez has an NFL-worst four red-zone interceptions this year. He has 10 interceptions overall and three fumbles against just 12 TDs.

In Cardinals land, meanwhile, rookie QB Ryan Lindley is expected to start again ahead of an injured Kevin Kolb (questionable). Lindley threw four picks with no TDs last game. To make matters worse Arizona is dinged up at wide receiver with injuries to Early Doucet and Andre Roberts.

Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt was asked about his depth at wide receiver Friday and he replied: "Is that what we have, depth?"

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 10:26 AM

NFL tech notes this weekend!

SEATTLE at CHICAGO...Pete Carroll 7-4 vs. line TY, 18-8 vs. number last 26 since early 2011. Carroll 5-0 as dog TY, 11-1 last 12 as dog, 16-2 last 18 as dog since early 2011. Lovie only one cover last four at home TY. Seahawks "under" 7-4 in 2012, "under" 4-2 on road. Tech edge-Seahawks and slight to "under," based on tam and "totals" trends.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY...Ugh! Vikes haven't beaten Pack since the big Favre Minnesota year of 2009, losing last four (1-3 vs. line). Vikes, however, only 1-4 vs. line this season on road, 4-8 last 12 away against line since early LY. Pack has covered only 2 of last 6 vs. line at Lambeau since late LY. "Overs" 7-1 last 8 meetings, and Pack "over" 19-9 since late in 2010 season. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at ST. LOUIS...Rams have actually covered last two vs. 49ers since late LY (including recent SU draw at Candlestick) and are 4-1 vs. spread last five in series. Rams won and covered first three at home (all as dog) TY before recent loss to Jets. Rams also "over" last five this season, and "over" 4-1 last five meetings vs. 49ers. SF 4-1 vs. line away in 2012. Tech edge-Rams and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at NY JETS...Cards have lost last seven SU and had dropped six in a row vs. the number prior to Nov. 18 cover vs. Falcons. Whisenhunt "under" 8-3 this season and "under" 14-5-1 last 20 since early 2011. Cards also 9-5 last 14 as dog. Jets "over" 6-4-1 TY and "over" 34-16 last 50 since late 2009. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on extended Whisenhunt dog marks.

CAROLINA at KANSAS CITY...Panthers have actually covered their last three on the road this season in a pattern very close to Jacksonville's "road-in-Jag" this season, as visiting team has covered last eight Panthers games in 2012 prior to Monday vs. Eagles. Chiefs 2-4 vs. points at Arrowhead TY and 2-5 last seven since late 2011. Tech edge-Panthers, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at DETROIT...Lions again no covers last three TY, and only 7-15-1 vs. number last 23 on board since early 2011. Detroit 3-7-1 against number last 11 at Ford Field. Lions also "over" 7-3-1 TY, now "over" 30-15-3 last 48 since late in 2009 campaign. Colts have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Tech edge-Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO..."Road in Jag" trend continues, as visitor is 10-1 vs. spread in Jag games this season, with J'ville 5-0 against spread on road. Chan "over" 17-11 since late 2010. Tech edge-Jags and slight to "over," based on road-in-Jag and Bills' "totals" trends.

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI...Dolphins 1-3 SU and vs. line last four this season. Belichick has won and covered 4 of last 5 at Miami. Road team 8-2 against spread last 10 in series. Belichick "over" 9-2 TY and now "over" 37-12 since late in 2009 campaign. "Overs" last four in series. Tech edge-Patriots and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

HOUSTON at TENNESSEE...Munchak just 4-8 vs. number last 12 at LP Field. Kubiak 21-8-1 against number last 30 on board, and Kubiak 5-1 vs. line last six in series. "Overs" 13-4 last 17 in series since 2003. Tech edge-Texans and "over," based on team and series trends.

TAMPA BAY at DENVER...Schiano has covered 4 of last 5 and 8 of last 11 this season, he's also 5-1 as dog. Broncos have won last six SU and covered 4 of those. Bucs also "over" 5-2 last seven TY, Denver "over" 5-2 last seven and "over" 34-16 since late in 2009 campaign. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE...Baltimore has now beaten Steelers three in a row SU. Four of last six meetings decided by exactly three points. Big Ben-less Steel earned narrow cover in 13-10 loss at Heinz Field Nov. 18. Steel only 4-12 vs. line last 16 away from home after loss at Cleveland. Ravens 2-6 against line last 8 at M&T Bank Stadium. Tech edge-slight to Ravens, based on extended Steeler road spread woes.

CLEVELAND at OAKLAND...Browns 6-4-1 vs. line TY, 10-4-1 last 15 and 12-5-1 last 18 against spread. Raiders 1-4 vs. points at home TY, 3-7 last 10 against points as host. Browns also "under" 8-3 in 2012 and 22-9-1 since late in 2010 season, though Raiders "over" 17-10 since last season. Tech edge-Browns, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at SAN DIEGO...Norv 1-6 SU and 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, Norv also "over" 6-2 last 8 TY, reversing previous "under" string. Marvin Lewis 10-4-1 last 15 vs. spread on road and "over" 9-5 last 14 away. Tech edge-Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS...Something has to give here. Birds 1-9 vs. line TY lost 38-23 vs. Dallas on Nov. 11 at Linc. But Cowboys 0-5 vs. line at home TY, no covers last eight at Arlington, 2-11 vs. points at home since 2011, 2-12 last 14 against points as host. Tech edge-slight to Eagles, based on Cowboys' extended home woes.

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON (Monday, December 3)...Shan has covered last four vs. Giants including narrow 27-23 SU loss at Met Life Stadium on Oct. 21. But loss by Giants at Cincy on Nov. 11 was first on road after eight straight covers (nine if counting Jets game when G-Men wore white uniforms last December). Giants also "under" 13-5 last 18 since late in 2011 season. Tech edge-Skins and slight to "under," based on series and recent trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 10:39 AM

Top 5 NFL Trends

CAR
KC Under is 9-0 in KC last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

SF
STL STL are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

SF
STL Under is 7-0 in STL last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

PHI
DAL Under is 7-0 in PHI last 7 road games.

IND
DET IND are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 10:39 AM

Top 5 NFL Trends

CAR
KC Under is 9-0 in KC last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

SF
STL STL are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

SF
STL Under is 7-0 in STL last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

PHI
DAL Under is 7-0 in PHI last 7 road games.

IND
DET IND are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in December.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 11:30 AM

Weather information......

Its pouring cats and dogs in the bay area....watch that total on the Raiders game....and winds up to 40mph....

Anyone else can confirm from the east bay?

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 12:07 PM

1 hour before Kickoff

NFL Consensus Picks

December 2, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Seattle +3 1122 29.36% Chicago -3 2700 70.64% View View

1:00 PM Arizona +6 1815 48.39% N.Y. Jets -6 1936 51.61% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville +6 1932 51.77% Buffalo -6 1800 48.23% View View

4:25 PM Cleveland -1 1222 54.68% Oakland +1 1013 45.32% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota +7 2030 54.91% Green Bay -7 1667 45.09% View View

8:20 PM Philadelphia +10.5 1898 56.66% Dallas -10.5 1452 43.34% View View

4:25 PM Pittsburgh +8 1267 57.62% Baltimore -8 932 42.38% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis +7 2257 58.10% Detroit -7 1628 41.90% View View

4:25 PM Cincinnati -1 2352 59.73% San Diego +1 1586 40.27% View View

1:00 PM New England -8 2403 61.63% Miami +8 1496 38.37% View View

4:05 PM Tampa Bay +9.5 2416 63.08% Denver -9.5 1414 36.92% View View

1:00 PM San Francisco -7.5 2596 64.13% St. Louis +7.5 1452 35.87% View View

1:00 PM Carolina -5.5 2452 65.95% Kansas City +5.5 1266 34.05% View View

1:00 PM Houston -7 3046 76.04% Tennessee +7 960 23.96% View View

Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Seattle 37 Chicago 1213 49.51% 1237 50.49% View View

1:00 PM Arizona 36.5 N.Y. Jets 1356 54.00% 1155 46.00% View View

4:25 PM Pittsburgh 36.5 Baltimore 841 54.82% 693 45.18% View View

1:00 PM San Francisco 41 St. Louis 1453 56.58% 1115 43.42% View View

1:00 PM Jacksonville 41.5 Buffalo 1439 57.26% 1074 42.74% View View

1:00 PM Carolina 41 Kansas City 1363 57.75% 997 42.25% View View

1:00 PM Houston 47 Tennessee 1449 58.62% 1023 41.38% View View

4:05 PM Tampa Bay 50 Denver 1561 60.64% 1013 39.36% View View

4:25 PM Cincinnati 46 San Diego 1548 63.11% 905 36.89% View View

4:25 PM Cleveland 39.5 Oakland 968 63.52% 556 36.48% View View

1:00 PM New England 51 Miami 1674 63.70% 954 36.30% View View

1:00 PM Indianapolis 51 Detroit 1734 66.01% 893 33.99% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota 47 Green Bay 1691 66.42% 855 33.58% View View

8:20 PM Philadelphia 44 Dallas 1606 67.28% 781 32.72% View View


Highlighted consensus picks over 59%. For more information, see our FAQ pag

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 12:12 PM

Sunday, December 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Chicago -3 500
Chicago - Under 37 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +7 500
Green Bay - Over 47 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco -7.5 500
St. Louis - Over 41 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Arizona +6 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 36.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -5.5 500
Kansas City - Over 41 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Detroit -7 500
Detroit - Over 51 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +6 500
Buffalo - Over 41.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -8 500
Miami - Over 51 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Houston -7 500
Tennessee - Under 47 500

Tampa Bay - 4:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +9.5 500
Denver - Under 50.5 500

Pittsburgh - 4:25 PM ET Pittsburgh +8 500
Baltimore - Under 36.5 500

Cleveland - 4:25 PM ET Oakland +1 500
Oakland - Under 39.5 500

Cincinnati - 4:25 PM ET San Diego +1 500
San Diego - Over 46 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25198 Followers:33
12/02/2012 10:18 PM

Monday Night Football: Giants at Redskins

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (2.5, 50)

With a pair of victories over division rivals, the Washington Redskins kept alive their slim hopes for a trip to the playoffs. They try for a third straight win over an NFC East rival on Monday night when they host the division-leading New York Giants. Washington appeared to be far out of the playoff picture after a string of three straight losses that began with a 27-23 road setback against the Giants in Week 7. But after their bye week, the Redskins manhandled the Philadelphia Eagles and jumped out to a huge lead in Dallas on Thanksgiving before holding on for a 38-31 triumph over the Cowboys. With star rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III at the helm, Washington is just one game behind Seattle for the second wild card in the conference but also has Tampa Bay and Minnesota in its way.

New York avoided a major downward spiral last Sunday night, when it posted a convincing 38-10 home victory over the surging Green Bay Packers. Prior to the win, the Giants suffered losses at home to Pittsburgh and in Cincinnati. New York, which is two games ahead of both Washington and Dallas in the division, ranks fourth in the NFC but trails San Francisco by 1 1/2 games for second place and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Giants -2.5, O/U 50

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with partly cloudy conditions. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 4 mph.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (7-4): Quarterback Eli Manning owns a 7-2 record in his last nine starts against Washington. In his only previous Monday night meeting with the Redskins on Dec. 21, 2009, Manning threw three touchdown passes without an interception. Not everything that came out of Sunday's win over the Packers was good as running back Andre Brown suffered a broken leg and is out for the remainder of the season. David Wilson could see more playing time in place of Brown, who is second in the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (5-6): Griffin performed well in his first career game against the Giants, completing 20 of 28 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns while running for 89 yards on nine carries. Griffin was even better in his next two divisional games as he threw four TD passes against both the Eagles and Cowboys, becoming the first rookie in league history to do have at least four scoring strikes in consecutive games. Running back Alfred Morris is second among rookies with 982 yards. Washington is allowing an average of 301.4 passing yards, the second-worst mark in the NFL.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC East foes.
* Under is 6-1 in Giants’ last seven road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Redskins’ last five games overall.
* Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Giants have won 10 of the last 13 meetings between the teams but were swept in the season series in 2011.

2. Washington is second in the league with an average of 162.9 rushing yards.

3. With three TD passes against Green Bay, Manning became the first Giant with 200 career scoring tosses.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: