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Before I make my last best bet play of the 2012 CFB regular season I just wanted to thank everyone for following me throughout thick and thin. As most of you know it was a rough and tumble start to the campaign going just 1-4 in September but I rallied to hit 9 of my last 10 where the streak only ended by a field goal backing Utah St last week. It has been an incredible journey and a win tonight would give me my third straight season of at least 67% or better. Here is a recap of the 2012 regular season best bets to date.
Week 1: 9/1 Texas St. at Houston: (Houston -36)
Texas St 31 Houston 13 (L)
Week 2: 9/8 Wisconsin at Oregon St (Wisconsin -8)
Oregon St 10 Wisconsin 7 (L)
Week 3: 9/15 Wake Forest at Florida St (Florida St -24)
Florida St 52 Wake Forest 0 (W)
Florida St -14 over Georgia Tech (bought half):
Florida State dropped three spots to No. 13 in Sunday's Associated Press Top 25 following a 37-26 loss to Florida. Fisher's Seminoles (10-2) play Georgia Tech, which must regroup following a lopsided 42-10 loss to Georgia, in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship on Saturday. The winner will play in the Orange Bowl. Georgia Tech is only 6-6 overall but won the Coastal Division with a 5-3 ACC record because Miami self-imposed a bowl ban for the second straight year as it hopes to lessen possible penalties from an ongoing NCAA investigation.
Quarterback E.J. Manuel, another candidate for the 2013 draft, needs 33 passing yards to reach 3,000 for the first time. He's trying to bounce back after throwing a season-high three interceptions against Florida. Not only has his 67.4 completion percentage been impressive, but Manuel has also rushed for 235 yards and three scores, adding to FSU's dominant rushing attack.The Yellow Jackets, who have struggled on defense all season, have had to bounce back from other ugly losses this season, including a 49-28 loss to Middle Tennessee State which cost defensive coordinator Al Groh his job. Johnson said his defense may have hit a new low against Georgia, making it more difficult to regroup for the ACC championship game.
Georgia Tech's normally productive spread-option offense was held to a season low in points by Georgia's defense, which stiffened near the red zone. The Yellow Jackets had 26 first downs and 426 yards but were held without a touchdown until midway through the fourth quarter.
Devonta Freeman is one of many Seminoles doing work on the ground this season. Three backs—including Freeman—have more than 500 rushing yards and at least five rushing TDs. Freeman has 571 yards and seven touchdowns on just 84 carries, which is good for a 6.8 average.He's been featured a lot more of late. In two of his last four games, he's rushed for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns.
The Noles will likely play a cover-3 or cover-1 defense allowing Terrence Brooks to stay in the box. The cover-3 defense is normally strong against the run allowing both safeties to start closer to the line of scrimmage and delay their drops. Georgia Tech does not have that big powerful wide receiver like it did in Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, or Stephen Hill and blocking has suffered a bit because of it. They also do not scare too many teams and as such Orwin Smith has almost as many receptions as the Yellow Jacket's leading wide receiver (Jeff Greene). FSU's DBs should be able to shed blocks quickly to help attack the run and they have done that well this year.
Georgia Tech is well over-matched in this one, and will struggle to hang in there against the Florida State defense. Maybe the Yellow Jackets have some magic up their sleeve to combat the ‘Noles but overall the Florida St front seven and secondary will get the opportunity to make plays on defense setting up quick strikes for Manuel and the offense. While FSU may have set their preseason expectations a bit higher than the potential Orange Bowl berth, you can't sell short an appearance qualifying for one of the BCS matchups which comes with a nifty payday for the school that triumphs. Best of luck however you play!
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