cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/22/2012 11:17 AM

No. 20 Boise meets Washington in Las Vegas Bowl

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (10-2)
vs. WASHINGTON HUSKIES (7-5)

Las Vegas Bowl - Las Vegas, NV
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -5.5, Total: 44.5

No. 20 Boise State returns to a familiar place when it battles Washington in Saturday's Las Vegas Bowl.

This is the third straight Las Vegas Bowl for the Broncos who have outscored opponents 99-37 during a three-game bowl win streak. This matchup features two schools that each scored 56 points last bowl season, but the Huskies surrendered 67 points in a loss to Baylor, while Boise State allowed just 24 to Arizona State. Washington is just 2-4 (SU and ATS) in non-home games, losing to 14-point underdog Washington State in the regular season finale. The Broncos are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) away from the blue turf with the lone loss coming in August by just four points at Michigan State.

Can Boise State win its third Las Vegas Bowl in three years? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Although Boise State isn't the high-octane offense that it was under departed QB Kellen Moore (44.7 PPG in 2010-2011), the school still put up 30.4 PPG and 390 total YPG with Joe Southwick under center. And the junior is playing his best football late in the year, completing 53-of-75 passes (71%) for 624 yards (8.3 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT in leading his team to three straight victories. RB D.J. Harper (1,065 rush yds, 15 TD) is the focal point of this Broncos offense with six 100-yard rushing games, including two in row. The Broncos defense has been top-notch all year, ranking ninth in the FBS in total defense (305 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (14.9 PPG). DE Demarcus Lawrence (9.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL) anchors a stout front four while senior LB J.C. Percy mans with the middle with a team-best 101 total tackles (61 solo). The secondary has also performed at a high level, giving up just 163 passing YPG, which is tied for the 4th-fewest in the nation. Boise State has allowed a mere three TD passes all year while picking off 16 passes.

This Boise defense could create a lot of problems for Washington QB Keith Price who has majorly regressed in his junior season with 15 fewer passing TD and a considerably lower passing efficiency (124.48, 77th in FBS) than in 2011 (161.93 rating, 7th in FBS). The Huskies are trying to shake off a tough loss to rival Washington State, when they relinquished an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost 31-28 in overtime. Price had a key fumble in the final quarter and then threw an interception in the extra session to seal his team's fate. There have been no complaints about the job RB Bishop Sankey has done in replacing departed star RB Chris Polk this year. Sankey (1,234 rush yds, 15 TD) has rushed for more than 80 yards in nine of the past 10 games, topping 100 yards in six of those contests. In the past four games, Sankey has totaled 637 yards from scrimmage (159 YPG) with 6 TD runs. The loss to WSU ended a four-game win streak where the defense allowed just 48 points combined (12.0 PPG). This unit has made tremendous strides since last bowl season when they allowed 67 points and 777 total yards in the Alamo Bowl loss to Baylor. The Huskies give up just 23.8 PPG and 353 total YPG for the season, a huge improvement from the 453 total YPG and 35.9 PPG from 2011. In the past five games, the Huskies have forced 19 turnovers (3.8 per week).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/22/2012 11:22 AM

Saturday, December 22

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E CAROLINA (8 - 4) vs. LA LAFAYETTE (8 - 4) - 12/22/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAFAYETTE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (10 - 2) - 12/22/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 63-32 ATS (+27.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-67 ATS (+34.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-67 ATS (+34.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 87-57 ATS (+24.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 69-36 ATS (+29.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Saturday, December 22

12:00 PM
EAST CAROLINA vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
East Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of East Carolina's last 5 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 6 games

3:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Boise State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games


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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 209-210: East Carolina vs. UL-Lafayette (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 77.270; UL-Lafayette 85.709
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 8 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 5 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-5 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Washington vs. Boise State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 100.064; Boise State 95.383
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Boise State by 5 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5 1/2); Over

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Saturday, December 22, 2012

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina vs. Louisiana Lafayette, 12:00 ET ESPN | Matt Fargo's Bowl Preview
East Carolina: 11-3 ATS away playing on artificial turf
LA Lafayette: 10-2 Over off BB conference games

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Washington vs. Boise State, 3:30 ET ESPN
Washington: 16-30 ATS off a conference road loss
Boise State: 6-0 ATS away vs. non-conference opponents

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Saturday, December 22

New Orleans Bowl
I tend to be wary of teams going back to same bowl they won LY; UL-Lafayette (+4) upset San Diego State 32-30 in this game LY, their first-ever bowl, in front of partisan crowd of 42,000+; their excitement level can’t be the same for this game. ULL scored 31-52-35 points in last three games; they allowed 21+ in last seven, and are 3-3-1 vs spread as favorites this year. East Carolina beat Tulane 28-23 on this field November 17, so they’ll be in familiar surroundings, only with much bigger crowd. All four of ECU’s losses this year are by 20+ points; they scored 41+ points in last four wins. Pirates are in 5th bowl in last six years after staying home LY; they’ve lost last three bowls, but those were all vs SEC/ACC teams. ECU’s last bowl win was an upset of Boise State in Hawai’i five years ago. ULL played slightly tougher schedule this year. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 5-2 vs spread this year; C-USA road dogs are 7-12. This will basically be a ULL home game.

Las Vegas Bowl
Washington lost three of last four bowls, beating Nebraska 19-7 two years ago, before RGIII/Baylor ran them out of Alamodome LY, 67-56, game that cost DC Holt his job—he was replaced by Justin Wilcox, who was Boise’s DC from 2006-09. Boise State is in Las Vegas Bowl for third year in row (won 26-3/56-24 last two years, both as double digit favorites vs Pac-12 teams), so little bit wary of Broncos here, since they’ve got new QB/OC from LY. Peterson is 4-2 in bowl games (5-1 vs spread); Boise scored 27+ points in 8 of 12 games this year, but won three of four when they scored less- this is a less explosive Bronco team that has a better defense. Washington was on 4-game win streak and had 18-point lead in Apple Cup rivalry game, but blew that game- they allowed 17 or less points in all seven wins. Huskies are 5-3 vs spread as an underdog this year; Boise is 5-6 as a favorite. MWC non-conference favorites are 6-8 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 7-4.

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NCAAF

Saturday, December 22

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New Orleans Bowl: What bettors need to know
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East Carolina vs. UL Lafayette (-4.5, 65)

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. Louisiana-Lafayette won four of its last five games, scoring 31 or more points in each of the wins in claiming second place in the Sun Belt, and makes its second consecutive trip to The Big Easy after winning the bowl last year. The Ragin' Cajuns will put their high-scoring attack to the test against East Carolina in a near inevitable shootout. The Pirates, who won five of their last six before losing the Conference USA tiebreaker to Central Florida, have scored more than 40 points in four of those wins.

2. The Ragin' Cajuns and the Pirates make the most of their scoring opportunities. Louisiana-Lafayette is tied for second in the country in red zone efficiency while the Pirates lead C-USA and are tied for fifth nationally.

3. While both teams have had little trouble scoring the ball, neither has had much success stopping their opponents as they allow close to 30 points per game. The Pirates suffered each of their four defeats by at least 20 points.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, Saturday, Dec. 22.

LINE: This line opened as high as UL Lafayette -6 and the total has crept up from 64 to 65.5 at some shops.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 59 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Rajin’ Cajuns to cover.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Pirates' last five games overall.
* Ragin' Cajuns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Pirates are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Ragin' Cajuns' last five games following a win.

ABOUT EAST CAROLINA (8-4, 7-1 C-USA): Shane Carden has racked up 2,838 yards of total offense and 29 touchdowns this season. In the Pirates' 65-59 double-overtime victory over Marshall in their season finale, Carden completed 38 of 47 passes for 439 yards and three touchdowns while running for another three scores. Justin Hardy, Carden's top target, has caught 83 passes for 1,046 yards and 10 touchdowns as East Carolina's air attack ranks 35th in the nation. Vintavious Cooper's 1,030 rushing yards and seven scores helps balance the attack. The Pirates are likely underdogs because of the four blowout losses to South Carolina, North Carolina, Central Florida and Navy. Also, East Carolina failed to record a victory against a bowl-bound opponent.

ABOUT LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt): While its the Ragin' Cajuns four wins in their last five games that sent them to New Orleans, its their lone loss in that span - a 27-20 defeat at the hands of then-No. 6 Florida that put them in the public spotlight. Dual-threat quarterback Terrance Broadway has thrown for 2,565 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 661 yards and another eight scores. Three of his four best rushing performances came in Louisiana-Lafayette's last three games -- all wins. Paired with Alonzo Harris (761 yards, eight touchdowns), the Ragin' Cajuns average 187.3 yards per game on the ground, 40th-best in the nation. Louisiana-Lafayette recorded two victories over bowl teams this season in Louisiana-Monroe and Western Kentucky.


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NCAAF

Saturday, December 22

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Las Vegas Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Washington vs. Boise State (-5.5, 45)

MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS STORYLINES

1. It is a testament to how well Chris Petersen and his staff have done at Boise State that a 10-2 season feels like a down year. The 15th-ranked Broncos were likely out of BCS consideration when they fell at Michigan State on opening weekend but stayed strong behind a defense that allowed less than 15 points and managed to claim a share of the Mountain West. While Boise State was expected to take a small step back, Washington’s step forward in the Pac-12 never fully materialized this season and a loss in the Apple Cup left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth last month.

2. The Huskies have struggled offensively all season and will have to go up against a stout Boise State defense. Washington did not get to 30 points in Pac-12 play until facing the bottom of the league in Utah and Colorado late in the season. The Broncos gave up more than 20 only three times and never let a team hit 30. Boise State has been especially strong against the pass, holding opponents to 163.4 yards - fourth in the nation.

3. Washington is trying to lock down its first eight-win season since 2001 while the Broncos are hoping to avoid their first three-loss campaign since 2007. The schools have met only once previously (a 24-10 victory by the Huskies in Seattle in 2007) but will be playing in back-to-back contests, with the Broncos set to open next season in Seattle on Aug. 31.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened at Boise State -6 at most shops with the total shrinking to 45 after opening at 46.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 10 mph.

CONSENSUS: Nearly 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Broncos to cover.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Huskies’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.


ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-5, 5-4 Pac 12): The Huskies went 7-6 in each of the previous two seasons and were a trendy pick to challenge for the Pac-12 North with junior quarterback Keith Price entering his third year in coach Steve Sarkisian’s system. But Price and the entire team developed a tendency to come up short in their biggest games early in the season. Losses at LSU in September and a three-game slide in October saw the Huskies outscored by an average of 28.5 points. They were on their way to a five-game winning streak to close the regular season before squandering an 18-point lead to rival Washington State. Price could spend most of his day in Las Vegas handing off to sophomore running back Bishop Sankey, who totaled 1,234 yards and 15 touchdowns in the regular season. Sankey will be going up against the soft spot in the Broncos’ defense, a front line that has allowed an average of 141.3 yards on the ground.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (10-2, 7-1 MWC): The Broncos will be making their 11th straight bowl appearance and third in a row at the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas. They beat Utah 26-3 in the 2010 game and took out Arizona State 56-24 in Las Vegas last December. Boise State was replacing four-year starter at quarterback Kellen Moore in 2012 and took a while for the offense to catch up to the defense under new signal-caller Joe Southwick. The junior came on at the end of the season, throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the final three games to bring the Broncos back to a tie for first place in the Mountain West. Senior running back D.J. Harper finished the season with back-to-back 100-yard games and should see plenty of carries against a Washington defense that has surrendered 164.3 yards on average.


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Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/22/2012 11:25 AM

Saturday, December 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

East Carolina - 12:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -6 500

UL Lafayette - Under 68 500

Washington - 3:30 PM ET Boise State -5 500

Boise State - Under 44 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/22/2012 11:28 AM

NCAAF Consensus Picks

December 22, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

3:30 PM Washington +4.5 1134 35.39% Boise State -4.5 2070 64.61% View View

12:00 PM East Carolina +6 1279 40.95% UL Lafayette -6 1844 59.05% View View

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Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

3:30 PM Washington 44.5 Boise State 1439 61.97% 883 38.03% View View

12:00 PM East Carolina 68 UL Lafayette 1503 63.15% 877 36.85% View View


Games are highlighted when more than 59% of all cash contests players choose outcome.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/24/2012 05:21 PM

NCAAF

Monday, December 24

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Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Fresno State Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangs (+12, 59.5)

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. The lone Christmas Eve bowl game figures to be gift-wrapped with plenty of offense. Southern Methodist will try to keep pace with Fresno State, which is ranked 14th nationally in total offense at 488.5 yards per game while averaging 40.2 points. The Mustangs average 29.5 points and scored a school-record 72 against Houston in October.

2. SMU coach June Jones is familiar with the islands after coaching Hawaii for nine seasons. The Mustangs, who are making their school-record fourth consecutive bowl appearance, won the 2009 Hawaii Bowl 45-10 against Nevada. The Bulldogs are making their 12th bowl appearance in the last 14 seasons, and are coming off their first conference championship since 1999.

3. Both teams enter the contest riding a wave of momentum after finishing the regular season on a high note. Fresno State has won five straight games, including a 48-15 victory over Air Force on Nov. 24. SMU went 2-2 down the stretch, but the Mustangs beat Tulsa 35-27 in their season finale to hand the Golden Hurricane their first conference loss. Fresno State lost to Tulsa 27-26 on Sept. 22.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Fresno State opened at -11.5 and has since climbed to -12. The total opened at 59.5 and has remained steady.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 51 percent chance of rain later in the game with temperatures in the high 60s. Winds are expected to blow ENE at 7 mph.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Fresno State while 66 percent are leaning toward the over.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. MWC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs' last four Bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Mustangs' last seven games overall.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (9-3, 7-1 Mountain West, 11-1 ATS): Led by first-year coach Tim DeRuyter, the Bulldogs shared the conference championship with Boise State and San Diego State. Junior quarterback Derek Carr was named Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for a career-high 3,742 yards with 36 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Freshman wide receiver Davante Adams led the conference in receptions (89), receiving yards (1,168) and touchdown catches (13), while senior Robbie Rouse rushed for 1,468 yards and 12 touchdowns. Senior defensive back Philip Thomas leads the Bulldogs’ defense, which ranked 19th in the nation while allowing an average of 335.3 yards. Thomas was named the Mountain West’s top defensive player after recording a career-high 82 tackles and eight interceptions. After recording only nine takeaways last year, Fresno State tied for third nationally with SMU and Boise State with 33 turnovers gained this season.

ABOUT SMU (6-6, 5-3 Conference USA, 7-5 ATS): The Mustangs needed their victory over Tulsa to become bowl eligible after losing 36-14 at Rice on Nov. 17. The offense is led by senior Zach Line, who was named C-USA Offensive Player of the Year after rushing for 1,207 yards and 12 touchdowns. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is a dual threat who had 14 passing touchdowns and seven rushing. Gilbert has a 14-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but has thrown 126 passes without an interception. The defense is led by defensive end Margus Hunt and linebacker Ja'Gared Davis, who forced three turnovers against Tulsa. The Mustangs are vulnerable in the secondary, where they've lost two starters to injuries. Over the past two-plus seasons, SMU is 14-0 when scoring first, but 0-14 when the opponent scores first.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/24/2012 05:24 PM

Fresno State seeks 6th straight win on Monday

SMU MUSTANGS (6-6)
vs. FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (9-3)

Hawaii Bowl - Honolulu, HI
Kickoff: Monday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Fresno State -12, Total: 60

Fresno State tries to extend its long win streak on Monday as it is heavily favored to beat former WAC rival SMU in the Hawaii Bowl.

Fresno State has won five straight games (SU and ATS), scoring at least 42 points in each of the five victories. That puts the Bulldogs at 11-1 ATS for the year, with the lone ATS defeat being a 10-point loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog. SMU is just 1-4 (SU and ATS) in non-home games, scoring only 19.6 PPG and allowing 32.8 PPG, compared to its 37 to 20 average home score. Both schools are tied for third in the nation with 33 forced turnovers this season, but Fresno is tied for fourth in FBS in passing defense (163 passing YPG), while the Mustangs rank 106th in FBS with 271 passing YPG allowed. This will be the seventh all-time meeting between the schools. After SMU won the first-ever meeting, 24-14 in 1999, Fresno State has won each of the five matchups from 2000 to 2004, prevailing by 7, 25, 23, 9 and 42 points.

Can Fresno State win by two touchdowns on Monday night? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Mustangs QB Garrett Gilbert has been very interception-prone in his college career at both Texas and SMU (36 career INT), but he has not thrown a pick in five straight games spanning 161 pass attempts. He also has seven rushing touchdowns in this span, but has thrown just 3 TD passes in the five games, giving him 14 TD and 13 INT for the year. He will be making his first bowl appearance since replacing injured Colt McCoy in the 2010 BCS National Championship Game and throwing 2 TD and 4 INT in the 37-21 loss to Alabama. Although the Mustangs don't run the football particularly well (129 YPG, 96th in FBS), they do have an excellent senior running back in Zach Line (1,207 rush yds, 12 TD). Line has three straight 1,000-yard seasons and has rushed for at least 80 yards in eight straight games, with 6 TD in the past three contests. He was unable to play in last year's PapaJohns.com Bowl win over Pittsburgh, but he ran for 103 yards on 17 carries in the 2010 Armed Forces Bowl versus Army, and also scored a touchdown in his team's 2009 Hawaii Bowl appearance, a 45-10 crushing of Nevada. Defensively, this SMU team has allowed 36+ points five times this year and allows 400 total YPG for the season (66th in nation). The rushing defense is solid (129 YPG, 2nd in C-USA), but the passing defense has allowed at least 295 yards to six of their opponents, including 413 to Tulsa in the last game, a 35-27 victory. SMU has 17 takeaways in the past six games, including nine against Houston on Oct. 18.

Fresno State QB Derek Carr has never played in a bowl game, but he has been incredible during his team's five-game win streak, completing 68% of his passes for 1,660 yards (332 YPG), 17 TD and 1 INT. For the season, Carr has thrown for 3,742 yards (312 YPG), 36 TD and just 5 INT, which is why he ranks 9th in the nation in passing efficiency (160.64). It also helps to have star freshman WR Davante Adams who has 13 TD catches and 97 receiving YPG (14th in FBS). But the Bulldogs also know how to run the football (166 YPG, 4.4 YPC), thanks mostly to RB Robbie Rouse whose 122 rushing YPG rank 13th in the nation. Rouse has 14 total TD this year, which doesn't count his 1-yard TD pass against Air Force in his last game. Rouse has three straight 1,000-yard seasons, and has rushed for at least 70 yards in every game this year, including four straight 100-yard efforts, totaling 589 rushing yards (147 YPG). Fresno also has playmakers on defense, especially senior S Phillip Thomas who leads the nation with eight interceptions, running three back for touchdowns. Considering Gilbert propensity to force throws, Thomas could make a big difference in this game. In addition to its stellar pass defense, the Bulldogs also rank tied for 11th in the nation in sacks (2.9 per game). They have forced 14 turnovers in the past five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/24/2012 05:27 PM

Hawaii Bowl Preview

December 22, 2012

While Monday Night Football in the NFL is done for the season, there is bowl action this Monday night as the annual Christmas Eve Hawaii Bowl features an intriguing match-up to wrap up the football weekend. SMU finished the season just 6-6, needing to beat Conference USA champion Tulsa to gain bowl eligibility in the finale, while Fresno State is riding a five-game winning streak for a successful first season in the Mountain West. Here is a look at this game and the history between these teams.

Match-up: Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Venue: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii (FieldTurf)
Date: Monday, December 23, 2012
Time/TV: 8:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Fresno State -12½, Over/Under 59
Last Meeting: 2004, Fresno State (-27), 42-0

This is a fourth straight bowl game in the five years since June Jones took over at SMU, an impressive feat considering SMU was 1-11 in his first season. That ugly season was coming off a 1-11 record in 2007 and the Mustangs had not been to a bowl game since getting hit with major NCAA sanctions, with the last bowl appearance being a 27-20 win over Notre Dame in the 1984 Aloha Bowl. SMU was in this bowl game in 2009, winning 45-10 as a double-digit underdog over Nevada. Jones coached at Hawaii from 1999 to 2007, leading Hawaii to the Sugar Bowl after the 2007 season when he led a 12-0 regular season in his final season with the Warriors. Jones is well received on the islands for his success at the university even though he left with some resentment.

Fresno State also has some experience playing in Hawaii as they meet the Warriors as WAC and now Mountain West foes annually. Fresno State made this trip last season, which could help the players with familiarity with the travel and stadium. The Bulldogs won a share of the Mountain West this season going 9-3 overall and 7-1 in conference play. The only losses for Fresno State came on the road against quality teams, Oregon, Tulsa, and Boise State. The Bulldogs also put together an incredible ATS season going 11-1. Fresno State went 3-3 against bowl teams this season, but most would agree that the Bulldogs lost to the best three teams on the schedule and really lack any high quality wins.

Statistically, Fresno State has far better numbers on both sides of the ball, impressively with 6.3 yards per play on offense against just 4.7 yards per play allowed on defense. SMU is also positive in that differential, but much less impressive on both sides of the ball at 5.5 yards per play on offense and 5.2 yards per play allowed on defense. Fresno State posted nearly 490 yards per game, including over 322 passing yards per game for one of the more productive offenses in the nation. On defense, Fresno State did allow significant rushing yards this season, surrendering 172 yards per game on the ground, but having to play Oregon made a big impact on those statistics.

Junior quarterback Derek Carr had a huge season for the Bulldogs and could certainly be growing as a NFL prospect. His brother, David was the #1 pick in the 2002 draft after playing for the Bulldogs and while he never became the star many expected, he has had a job in the league for a decade, currently the back-up for the New York Giants. Derek’s numbers this season are impressive with 36 touchdown passes against five interceptions, while completing almost 68 percent of his passes for over 3,700 yards. David threw for over 4,800 yards in his senior season but Derek’s numbers best what David did as a junior in just about every possible way.

Fresno State is certainly a pass-first team, averaging over 40 passing attempts per game and the ratio of passes to runs would likely be greater if the Bulldogs had fewer blowout wins. Diminutive senior running back Robbie Rouse needs just 32 yards to eclipse 1,500 yards for the second straight season, while also catching 58 passes and scoring 14 times combined. Freshman wide receiver Davante Adams has been the key weapon in the passing game with 89 catches this season for over 1,100 yards. Many of his catches are of the short-yardage variety with only five 100-yard games, but he has the ability to create yardage after the catch. This offense averaged over 40 points per game this season, the 12th best mark in college football.

SMU still looks like the run-and-shoot teams of past years under June Jones, but the offense has not been nearly as prolific. The Mustangs averaged just 366 yards per game this season and passed about 57 percent of the time. Despite over 40 pass attempts per game, SMU only averaged 237 passing yards per game as quarterback Garrett Gilbert (famous for filling in admirably for Colt McCoy at Texas in the 2009 BCS championship game) completed just over 53 percent of his passes. Most of his throws have gone for short yardage and he had just one more touchdown pass than interception. SMU was less reliant on the pass late in the year as Gilbert threw almost 46 passes per game in the first half of the season but just 33 attempts per game in the final six games.

Senior running back Zach Line led the Mustangs with over 1,200 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while also catching 32 passes. He rushed for at least 81 yards in 10 of 12 games this season and had at least 15 attempts in every game. Darius Johnson and Jeremy Johnson led the receiving corps with very similar numbers but both are on the small end as far as receivers go. The Mustangs do spread the ball around but the offense was very inconsistent this season, scoring an average of 42 points in wins but less than 17 points per game in losses.

While Fresno State did play Oregon and Tulsa in non-conference play, SMU played a brutal non-conference schedule, losing to Baylor, TCU, and Texas A&M. Conference USA certainly had a down year, but the Mustangs did have to play the top team from the East division for one of the tougher slates in the conference. SMU went 5-3 in league play, including beating the eventual champion Tulsa. The schedules for these teams rated similarly with the Mountain West producing a handful of respectable teams and the Bulldogs getting a boost for playing Oregon.

Defensively, Fresno State has far better numbers and while there are some holes in the SMU secondary the Mustangs are not as bad as the overall numbers suggest with a 103rd- ranked pass defense. Facing Baylor and Texas A&M put a big hit on those numbers and the pace of play for SMU allowed for more plays to be ran against them. What both defenses did extremely well was create turnovers this season. As SMU and Fresno State both picked up 33 turnovers on the season and both teams had turnover margins ranked in the top 12 of the nation. That could be a key for the outcome of this game.

While June Jones and his return to Hawaii will be a lead storyline, a great first year for Tim DeRuyter in Fresno should also be worth mentioning. Well-respected longtime Coach Pat Hill was released after last season’s disappointing 4-9 season and while Hill had a number a very good teams and big upset wins he never won a WAC title. In the first year in the Mountain West, DeRuyter has a conference title for Fresno State, albeit with mainly players Hill brought in. DeRuyter did coach Texas A&M to a bowl victory last season as an interim head coach, beating Northwestern 33-22 last season and while with the Aggies he was the offensive coordinator that helped hand SMU a 46-14 defeat last season as well.

Line Movement: Fresno State opened as a -10½-point favorite, but the line quickly climbed to -12 and later to -12½ where it has been steady much of the week before some recent buy-back to -12 at some outlets. The total opened at 59½ and has bounced down to 59. Fresno State is around -450 on the moneyline with SMU +350.

Last Meeting: In 2004, Fresno State was a huge favorite of -27 hosting a one-win SMU team in the latter part of the season. Fresno State won in a blowout with a 42-0 win, but the yardage was actually relatively close as Fresno State had a 465-356 edge as SMU had four turnovers. That was an SMU team that had won once in the previous 18 games however and a good Fresno State team was focused coming off three consecutive tight losses.

Series History: These teams played six straight seasons from 1999 to 2004 with Fresno State winning all but the first meeting S/U though going just 2-3-1 ATS. Fresno State was favored by more than 14 points in each of those contests.

SMU Historical Trends: Since June Jones took over this program in 2008, SMU is 18-16-1 ATS as an underdog and the Mustangs were 4-3 ATS in that role this season including three S/U wins. This is a fourth bowl game in a row for the Mustangs with SMU winning big twice as an underdog and losing as a favorite two years ago in a ‘home’ bowl game. Since 2009, SMU is 8-4 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points but SMU is also just 4-8 ATS the last two seasons in non-home games.

Fresno State Historical Trends: From late 2005 until the end of last season, Fresno State was mired in an ugly 9-32-2 ATS run in the favorite role. It all changed this season as Fresno State went 9-0 S/U and ATS as a favorite this season including going 7-0 as a double-digit favorite. The only game in which Fresno State failed to cover this season was at Boise State, losing by 10 as a seven-point underdog. Fresno State is 4-7 ATS in the last 11 games as a double-digit favorite away from home and 9-14 ATS in the last 23 games overall as a favorite away from home.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/24/2012 05:31 PM

SMU, Fresno State Square Off Monday In Hawaii Bowl

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs
Hawaii Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/24/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Fresno St. -12½, O/U 60½
Television: ESPN

Fresno State Bulldogs: It was a very successful first season in the Mountain West Conference for the Bulldogs (9-3 straight-up, 11-1 against the spread), who captured a share of the league title during their first year under Coach Tim DeRuyter. Fresno State also made a lot of friends on the college betting front with nearly 10 units of profit vs. the lines. The only hiccup at the window was a midseason 20-10 loss at Boise State as a 7-point 'dog, but FSU recovered with five consecutive wins and covers to end the campaign. The Bulldogs offense had a lot to do with the team covering seven times as double-digit chalk, and that unit was directed by quarterback Derek Carr, the younger brother of former Fresno star David Carr. The junior out of Bakersfield completed over 68 percent of his passes for 3,742 yards and an outstanding 36:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The passing game was supported by a ground unit that averaged nearly 166 yards per contest behind Robbie Rouse's 1,468 yards (13th in country).

SMU Mustangs: It will be something of a homecoming for Coach June Jones when he brings Southern Methodist (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) to the islands for Christmas. Jones spent nine seasons at the helm of the Hawaii Warriors, a span that included guiding the team into this bowl contest four times. He also got to know Fresno State very well, with the Bulldogs and Warriors growing into a strong WAC rivalry before the Bulldogs bolted for the MWC. The Mustangs closed their season with a 35-27 upset of Tulsa to gain bowl eligibility and hand the Golden Hurricane their only Conference USA defeat of the campaign. SMU was a 6-point underdog in the contest, and finished 6-1 ATS at home. Former Texas QB Garrett Gilbert directed the Ponies offense with more than 2,700 yards passing, and the unit was augmented by Zach Line's 1,207 yards rushing. The Mustangs are making their fourth consecutive bowl appearance with this game, and second Hawaii Bowl matchup after a 45-10 win and cover over Nevada in 2009, Jones' second year with the program.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/24/2012 05:40 PM

Monday, December 24

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SMU (6 - 6) vs. FRESNO ST (9 - 3) - 12/24/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 24

8:00 PM
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. FRESNO STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern Methodist's last 7 games
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Fresno State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Southern Methodist

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MONDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 213-214: Fresno State vs. SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 97.175; SMU 78.675
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 18 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 12; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-12); Under

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Monday, December 24, 2012

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
SMU vs. Fresno State, 8:00 ET ESPN
SMU: 0-6 ATS away after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Fresno State: 9-0 ATS as a favorite

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Monday, December 24

Hawai’i Bowl
SMU coach Jones is a legend in Paradise, having coached Rainbow Warriors for nine years (’99-’07), some of best years in program history; his SMU team won this game 45-10 as a 12-point dog over Nevada (and Colin Kaepernick) three years ago, so can’t dismiss them here, even though they’re 6-6, with four losses by 22+ points. Jones is 6-3 overall in bowls; Mustangs are 4-3 vs spread as underdogs this year- they run ball lot more than Jones’ usual run-and-shoot team, mainly because his QBs aren’t good enough to throw on every down. Fresno State is 8-0 vs spread as a favorite this year, 6-0 when laying double digits; Bulldogs won last five games, scoring 47.2 ppg. Pat Hill lost his last three bowls with Fresno, allowing 40-35-40 points; they’ve lost six of last eight bowls, overall. Average total in Bulldogs’ last five bowls is 63.6. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 12-20 vs spread this year; MWC favorites are 6-8 against the spread.

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Hawaii Bowl

Fresno State - Senior Phillip Thomas led the nation in interceptions with eight and tied for tops in the nation with three returned for TDs.

SMU – The Mustangs tied for the most interception return TDs with six this season. SMU finished tied for sixth with 19 INTs.

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Monday, December 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Fresno State - 8:00 PM ET Fresno State -12.5 500

Southern Methodist - Under 61.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25954 Followers:33
12/26/2012 05:13 PM

Central Michigan, Western Kentucky Meet In Little Caesars Bowl

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 12/26/2012 at 7:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: WKU -6, O/U 60
Television: ESPN

NOTE: Central Michigan wide receivers Titus Davis and Courtney Willliams are both out for Wednesday's Little Caesars Bowl game vs. Western Kentucky due to suspensions.

WKU Hilltoppers: A 5-1 start to the season fizzled out at the end for the Hilltoppers (7-5 straight-up, 8-4 against the spread), who dropped four of their final six games. The Little Caesars Bowl still rewarded WKU with an invite to take on Central Michigan at Detroit's Ford Field, and defensive coordinator Lance Guidry will lead the team as interim head coach after Willie Taggart opted to take the South Florida job in early December. Western Kentucky recently announced the hiring of former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino to take over beginning next year. This is the first bowl appearance for the Hilltoppers since a Tangerine Bowl victory in 1963, and they bring a solid ground game into the affair, led by running back Antonio Andrews. The junior rushed for 1,614 yards, ranked eighth in the nation, and scored 11 touchdowns on the ground, adding another three scores receiving. Both teams bring solid "over" trends into the contest, with seven of CMU's last 10 games topping the total while five of WKU's last seven skipped past the number.

CMU Chippewas: Sneaking into the bowl picture with three wins and covers to close the schedule, Central Michigan (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) is making its first postseason appearance since winning the GMAC Bowl in 2009. The Chips were coming off consecutive 3-9 campaigns in Coach Dan Enos' first two years as head coach before the late push to become bowl eligible this season. Senior quarterback Ryan Radcliff threw for more than 2,900 yards and 20 TDs, with his favorite target being Cody Wilson (64 receptions, 739 yards). However, Radcliff will be missing his best downfield threat for this game since Titus Davis (43 catches for 860 yards) is out due to a suspension. The real strength of the CMU attack is RB Zurlon Tipton, who closed the season with six consecutive games rushing for at least 110 yards. The junior ranked 15th in the country with almost 1,400 yards rushing, and he scored 19 touchdowns on the ground.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: