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Cnotes 2012-2013 College Football Regular and Bowl Games Best Bets !

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On 12/01/2012 11:14 AM in NCAA Football
Alabama, Georgia Meet Saturday For SEC Championship

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 12/01/2012 at 4:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Alabama -7½, O/U 50½
Television: CBS

Alabama Crimson Tide: Coach Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide (11-1 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread) can punch their second consecutive ticket to the BCS Championship with a victory at the Georgia Dome. Alabama closed out its regular season SEC slate with a 49-0 laugher vs. Auburn, the team's second straight 49-0 triumph. The Tide covered the huge 34-point spread in the contest and pushed the total past the 46-point mark on their own. Alabama's defense ranks first in the nation, allowing just 9.3 points per game and first in fewest yards surrendered (233.7 per game) while the offense is scoring at a 39.0 ppg clip (15th). This will be the eighth SEC Championship Game for 'Bama, who is 3-4 in the previous seven. The Tide's most recent appearance in the contest was 2009 when they dismantled Tim Tebow's Florida team by a 32-13 count en route to winning the BCS title vs. Texas.

Georgia Bulldogs: The Dawgs (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) tuned up for this contest with a 42-10 rout of Georgia Tech, giving them six consecutive wins and covers in four of the last five outings. The final score was a bit misleading due to the Yellow Jackets suffering a couple of crucial turnovers, and it marked the second consecutive game Georgia surrendered over 300 rushing yards in a contest after Georgia Southern ran with relative ease on the Bulldogs defense a week earlier. Aaron Murray continued to shine at quarterback for Coach Mark Richt's club in the win over Georgia Tech, completing 14-of-17 passes and two touchdowns. Murray is 71-for-97 (73.1 percent) over the last four games while tossing 13 TDs without a pick in that span. Georgia is making its second straight trip to the SEC Championship and fifth overall after falling 42-10 to LSU last December. It's the first time the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide have met since 2008, a 41-30 regular-season win for 'Bama. The last four battles between the schools all went "over" the total.
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12/01/2012 11:16 AM
Georgia Tech Gets Shot At ACC Title Against Florida State

Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 12/01/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: FSU -13, O/U 63½
Television: ESPN

Florida State Seminoles: Coach Jimbo Fisher and the 'Noles (10-2 straight-up, 4-8 against the spread) come off a 37-26 loss to Florida last week as 7-point favorites, their third consecutive setback vs. the line. The Gators reeled off 24 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to deny FSU a sweep of its two biggest rivals this season after beating Miami 33-20 in Week 8. The final vaulted past the total for a fourth straight game, leaving the Seminoles 7-3 "over" coming into this tilt. Florida State is making its third appearance in the ACC Championship, winning the inaugural affair in 2005 vs. Virginia Tech (27-22) and losing to the Hokies in 2010 (44-33). The 'Noles own the nation's second-ranked defense allowing just under 250 yards per game and are fourth in the rushing department (85.1 yards per game), which will now be pitted against Georgia Tech's third-ranked rushing attack (323.3 ypg).

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Miami's self-imposed bowl ban allowed the Ramblin' Wreck (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) to back into the conference title game. It marks the eighth straight year the Coastal Division will be represented by either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech. Thoughts of the Yellow Jackets contending for a conference crown and BCS bowl were nonexistent when they opened the season with four losses in the first six games. But Georgia Tech managed to close its ACC slate with four consecutive wins and covers to get in position to take advantage of the Hurricanes defaulting on the game. The Yellow Jackets are making their third appearance in the ACC Championship, losing to Wake Forest in 2006 and beating Clemson in 2009, a victory that was later taken away due to NCAA violations. It is the first time in three years these two schools have met on the gridiron, and Georgia Tech has won the last two meetings while covering the four most recent clashes with the Seminoles.
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12/01/2012 11:18 AM
Kansas State Looks To Clinch Big 12 Title Against Texas

Texas Longhorns at Kansas State Wildcats
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 12/01/2012 at 8:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: KSU -10½, O/U 63½
Television: ABC

Texas Longhorns: Coach Mack Brown and the Longhorns (8-3 straight-up, 5-6 against the spread) come off a 20-13 loss on Thanksgiving night to the TCU Horned Frogs, who were getting seven points in Austin. Texas coughed the ball up four times, including two picks thrown by starting quarterback David Ash before Case McCoy relieved him. McCoy will get the starting nod this Saturday in Manhattan despite not faring much better than Ash vs. the Horned Frogs. The Texas defense has been vulnerable to the run this season, allowing over 201 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 105th. That doesn't bode well against a KSU squad that is churning up 202 yards per game rushing, 28th in the nation. The 'Horns are searching for their first win in Manhattan since 2002, and their first triumph over the Wildcats since a victory in Austin in 2003.

Kansas State Wildcats: The Big 12 title is on the line for Bill Snyder's Wildcats (10-1 SU, 8-2-1 ATS), who last won the conference crown in 2003. A win Saturday, or an Oklahoma loss, would send Kansas State to the Fiesta Bowl, where the likely opponent would be Oregon. The 'Cats saw their national title hopes dashed a couple of weeks ago in Waco, where they suffered their first loss of the season to Baylor, 52-24 as 12-point favorites. Heisman Trophy candidate Collin Klein threw three interceptions in the game, and the Bears stonewalled the KSU running game while running wild on the K-State defense. The three turnovers were definitely out of character for the Wildcats, who had given it away just six times going into the game, and currently lead the nation with a +20 turnover margin on the season. Kansas State has covered all eight meetings with Texas as Big 12 opponents, and three of the last four clashes have skipped "over" the total.
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12/01/2012 11:31 AM
NCAAF

Saturday, December 1

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Alabama vs. Georgia: What bettors need to know
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Alabama vs. Georgia (7.5, 50)

A berth in the BCS Championship Game against Notre Dame is at stake when No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia clash in Saturday’s SEC title game in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide are making their eighth appearance (3-4) in the game, most of any SEC West team, while the Bulldogs are making their fifth (2-2). Alabama leads the nation in points allowed (9.3) and total defense (233.7). The Bulldogs rank 17th in points allowed (17.7) but have been especially stingy the last five games, allowing an average of 8.6 points. Two Georgia defensive backs proclaimed this week that they have the nation’s top defense, providing Alabama some bulletin-board material.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Alabama -7.5, O/U 50. The Crimson Tide opened as 8.5-point favorites at most books.

ABOUT ALABAMA (11-1, 7-1 SEC): Seeking their third national title in four years, the Tide are dominant on defense and balanced on offense. Quarterback AJ McCarron (25 touchdown passes, two interceptions) spreads the ball around to a talented group of targets led by freshman wide receiver Amari Cooper (45 catches, 767 yards, eight touchdowns), but the wideout corps took a hit last week when Kenny Bell broke his leg against Auburn. That might prompt coach Nick Saban to pull the redshirt off freshman Chris Black. Running backs Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon have combined for 1,848 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. They run behind the nation’s top offensive line, which is anchored by center Barrett Jones. The senior is a finalist for the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy.

ABOUT GEORGIA (11-1, 7-1): This is arguably Georgia’s best team in coach Mark Richt’s 12-year tenure. Quarterback Aaron Murray leads the nation in passing efficiency (177.2) and has 89 career touchdown passes, tied for second in SEC history. The three-year starter opted not to talk to the media this week, possibly an indicator he’s tired of explaining his struggles against elite defenses. For Murray to exploit Alabama’s beatable secondary like LSU’s Zach Mettenberger did, freshmen running backs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall must keep the Tide honest. They’ve combined for 1,858 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns. Outside linebacker Jarvis Jones (24 career sacks), linebacker Alec Ogletree (team-high 87 tackles in only eight games) and safety Bacarri Rambo (16 career interceptions) lead a defense loaded with playmakers.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs’ last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Alabama leads the series 36-25-4 and won the most recent meeting 41-30 in Athens in 2008.

2. Gurley’s 14 rushing touchdowns are one shy of Georgia’s freshman record, set by Herschel Walker in 1980.

3. Alabama is plus-14 in turnover margin, Georgia plus-9.

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12/01/2012 11:35 AM
NCAAF

Saturday, December 1

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Nebraska vs. Wisconsin: What bettors need to know
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Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (3.5, 48.5)

Wisconsin played a significant role in ushering No. 12 Nebraska into the Big Ten Conference prior to the start of last season. Now, with a Rose Bowl berth on the line Saturday, the Badgers are the only obstacle that remains in the way of the Cornhuskers winning their first Big Ten conference championship. Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez – a Nebraska graduate – was a key figure in brokering talks with the Big Ten for the Cornhuskers, easing their transition from the Big 12 in the process. In only its second season in the Big Ten, Nebraska will play for its 44th conference championship overall against the Badgers. Wisconsin, winner of the inaugural Big Ten championship last season, finished third in the Leaders Division, but is appearing in this game only because Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible for postseason play this season.

TV: 8:17 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: Nebraska -3.5, O/U 48.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

ABOUT NEBRASKA (10-2, 7-1 Big Ten): The Cornhuskers, playing in their first conference title game since winning the Big 12 in 1999, lead the conference in total offense (460.9 yards per game), rushing (252.2) and rank second in scoring (35.4). They should also get a boost from the fresh legs of Rex Burkhead, the team’s leading rusher from last season who has missed six games this year because of knee injuries. Burkhead returned from a four-game absence last Friday and rushed for 69 yards and a touchdown in Nebraska’s 13-7 victory over Iowa.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (7-5, 4-4): The Badgers have dropped three of their past four games, but all three were in overtime. In fact, all five of Wisconsin’s losses this season were by seven points or less and have come by a combined 19 points. Wisconsin is led by running back Montee Ball, who rushed for 90 yards and three touchdowns the Badgers’ 30-27 loss at Nebraska on Sept. 29. Ball set a FBS record last week with his 79th career touchdown in the team’s 24-21 setback at Penn State.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-0 in Cornhuskers’ last eight neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Badgers’ last five vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cornhuskers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 7-1 in Badgers’ last eight games following a loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Nebraska is in the midst of a six-game winning streak, its longest such same-season run since 2001.

2. Ball is 162 yards shy of becoming the 17th player in FBS history to rush for 5,000 yards in a career.

3. The Huskers were the only team to score more than 26 points against the Badgers this season.
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12/01/2012 11:36 AM
College football betting weather watch: Week 14

Oklahoma State at Baylor (5, 87.5)

Site: Floyd Casey Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

Oklahoma at TCU (5.5, 60)

Site: Amon G. Carter Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 14 mph.

Central Florida at Tulsa (-2.5, 54)

Site: Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be strong out of the south at 20 mph.

Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State (-10.5, 62.5)

Site: Liberty Bank Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 14 mph.

Boise State at Nevada (8.5, 59)

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and a 50 percent chance of rain. Winds will gust out of the south at 23 mph.

Cincinnati at Connecticut (4.5, 40.5)

Site: Rentschler Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with a 40 percent chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the east at 5 mph.

South Alabama at Hawaii (-6.5, 52.5)

Site: Aloha Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 55 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 7 mph.
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12/01/2012 11:46 AM
Saturday, December 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma State - 12:00 PM ET Baylor +4 500
Baylor - Over 88 500

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Texas Christian +5.5 500
Texas Christian - Over 55 500

Central Florida - 12:00 PM ET Tulsa -3 500
Tulsa - Over 53.5 500

Kansas - 2:30 PM ET Kansas +20.5 500
West Virginia - Over 70 500

Middle Tennessee - 3:00 PM ET Middle Tennessee +12 500
Arkansas State - Under 63.5 500

UL Lafayette - 3:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -8 500
Florida Atlantic - Under 61 500

Boise State - 3:30 PM ET Nevada +8 500
Nevada - Under 56.5 500

Cincinnati - 3:30 PM ET Connecticut +4 500
Connecticut - Under 40 500
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12/01/2012 06:05 PM
Saturday, December 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET South Florida +7.5 500
South Florida - Over 46.5 500

Texas - 8:00 PM ET Kansas State -10.5 500
Kansas State - Under 60 500

Florida State - 8:00 PM ET Georgia Tech +14 500
Georgia Tech - Over 59 500

Nebraska - 8:17 PM ET Wisconsin +3 500
Wisconsin - Over 50.5 500

South Alabama - 11:00 PM ET South Alabama +7 500
Hawaii - Over 51 500
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12/04/2012 05:21 PM
NCAAF Top 4: Best pre-New Year's Day bowl games

When you think of bowl season, you think of endless hours of college football on New Year’s Day. And while that image is the standard, bowl season will be well underway by the time 2013 rolls around.

The schedule makers may save the best for January 1 and beyond, but there are a ton of great bowl matchups before we ring in the New Year.

Here’s a look at the four best pre-New Year’s Day bowl games for college football bettors:

Holiday Bowl: Baylor Bears vs. UCLA Bruins (-2)

Any game involving the Bears is interesting. Baylor can put up points and give them back in a hurry, finishing fifth in points scored (44.1 ppg) and 117th in points allowed (38.2 ppg). The Bears come to San Diego on a three-game winning streak and have gone 4-1 in their last five games, covering the spread in each of those outings.

UCLA missed out on a Rose Bowl appearance thanks to a 27-24 loss to Stanford Saturday – the second straight loss to the Cardinal. Before those defeats, the Bruins won five in a row and have gone 4-3 ATS in their last seven outings. UCLA won’t have to travel far to face the Bears at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 27.

Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Syracuse Orange (+4)

The Orange could be the hottest team in college football, finishing the season with three straight victories and five in their last six to become bowl eligible and earn a spot in a solid postseason matchup. Syracuse’s offense sprang to life down the stretch, averaging 35.8 points over its final six games and posting a 5-1 mark against the spread.

Quarterback Ryan Nassib will try to out-gun WVU signal-caller Geno Smith in Yankee Stadium on Dec. 29. Smith and the Mountaineers had bigger goals than taking the field for a pre-New Year’s Day bowl back in the fall. A five-game, mid-season skid pulled the plug on a BCS bowl bid. However, West Virginia did manage to right the ship before the end of the year, winning its final two games SU and ATS.

Alamo Bowl: Texas Longhorns vs. Oregon State Beavers (-1.5)

Texas was eying a bigger bowl game a few weeks ago but perhaps got caught looking ahead to December, losing back-to-back outings to TCU and Kansas State respectively. The Longhorns failed to cover in both of those losses and went just 2-6 ATS in their final eight games of the schedule. Texas should have RB Joe Bergeron back from a shoulder injury by the Dec. 29 game.

Oregon State stumbled a bit in the second half of the schedule as the competition took a step up. The Beavers were flattened by rival Oregon then took out that frustration on poor FCS Nicholls State in the final game of the year, winning 77-0. Oregon State will face a bowl-starved Longhorns program, that hasn’t been to the postseason since 2006, in enemy territory. San Antonio is just a short trip down the highway for the Horns.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl: LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers (+3.5)

It’s Tiger time in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve. The LSU brand of Tiger may find it hard to get up for a pre-New Year’s Day game after holding on to BCS title game hopes for most of the season. And anything short of a national championship is a failure in the eyes of LSU faithful. The Bayou Bengals seemed mildly interested in the final games of the season, inching past Ole Miss and Arkansas while failing to cover the spread in each win.

Clemson could also be a bit sour about the Chick-Fil-A Bowl spot. The Tigers were in the mix for a BCS bowl but a loss to South Carolina in the final game of the season soiled those chances. Clemson’s high-powered offense (42.3 ppg – sixth in FBS) will test LSU’s eighth-ranked defense (297.1 yards against per game) in one of the better matchups of bowl season.
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12/04/2012 05:25 PM
NCAAF odds: Bowl season opening line report

The Monday following the final week of the college football season is one of the busiest and frustrating days for oddsmakers.

Not only are they called upon to produce spreads and totals for 35 bowl games in a hurry but they also have to decipher how teams will play weeks removed from their last outing. Notre Dame, which faces Alabama in the BCS Championship on Jan. 7, must wait 45 days between games.

“What’s tough for us is the long waiting period,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “It can really dull the numbers.”

“You don’t know which team you’re going to get out there,” he says. “It’s a totally different game when you wait five weeks to play. I think you’d get a completely different outcome if these games were played right now.”

We picked Korner’s brain about the toughest games, the widest spreads, the closest contests and the highest totals on the bowl season board:

Toughest line to set

Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Syracuse Orange (+4, 67)

Korner says his guys had WVU anywhere between -1 and -7 for this matchup at Yankee Stadium on Dec. 29.

“We put this one right in the middle,” Korner told Covers. “You have one team playing really well in Syracuse and another that has played tougher competition, in West Virginia. There’s nothing really motivating either side, which makes it tough.”

Music City Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (-6.5, 52)

Korner says his oddsmakers had Vanderbilt between -2 and -8 but eventually settled with -4.5 because of the Commodores’ strength of schedule.

“There are no real motivational factors but there is a difference in schedules played,” he says. “Vandy would have the edge with an SEC schedule and in situations like this, we tend to lean towards the SEC and that’s why Vandy is giving a handful of points.”

Biggest spread

Heart of Dallas Bowl: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17.5, 69)

The Boilermakers are the biggest dogs on the bowl season board, and Korner says this spread could have easily been higher.

“The Big Ten didn’t have an up year football wise,” he says. “We had this one as high as -20 (OSU). It seems like a ridiculous number for a bowl game but this is a wasted game, we could really see how high we could go.”

Korner says the big spread will draw some action on the underdog and wouldn’t be surprised if it came down before kickoff on New Year’s Day.

Shortest spread

GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Kent State Golden Flashes (Pick, 62)

This game is the bring-down bowl before the BCS Championship, the same thing as a ho-hum band going on before the headliner. A battle of MAC versus Sun Belt may come down to which program can stay focused with such a long layoff between action.

“Three of us had this at pick,” says Korner. “That one is very, very close.”

The spread for the GoDaddy.com Bowl has been bet all the way up to as high as Arkansas State -5 as of Tuesday morning.

Highest total

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks (-9, 82)

Two offensive juggernauts collide in this BCS bowl, prompting one of the highest totals of the college football season. Korner says the long layoff could hurt the timing off both potent passing games, which rank among the top 10 in points scored this season.

“These lightning-quick, pass-heavy offenses don’t play for all this time,” says Korner. “You saw a high total last week (Baylor-Oklahoma State) go up to 87 and 88 points. I don’t think that happens with this one. If could come down before then.”

Sportsbooks are playing it cool with the total for the Fiesta Bowl, opening the number at 77 points. That number has been bet down to 76.5 at some markets.

Lowest total

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Michigan State Spartans (-1, 42)

Two teams, known more for their defense this season, collide in Sun Devils Stadium for what should be a low-scoring affair, according to the 42-point total – the lowest on the bowl season schedule.

“We probably could have gone lower,” says Korner. “We’ve seen nothing explosive on offense from either team. It wasn’t a very tough total for us to make. We all had something in the 40’s.”

Books posted a 41.5-point total for the Buffalo Wild Wings bowl.
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