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PITTSBURGH at SOUTH FLORIDA...Panthers also get bowl-eligible with win. Skip's spread slump continues, he's 3-8 vs. line TY, 4-16 last 20 on board since early 2011. Skip had previously been a top-notch pointspread coach. Bulls 1-8 vs. spread last nine in Tampa. Pitt has covered 3 of last 4 away TY, and Panthers have won and covered last four meetings. Tech edge-Pitt, based on team and series trends.
OKLAHOMA at TCU...These two met famously in home-and-home in 2005 and '08 with Frogs scoring major upset in '05 opener at Norman then suffering only loss of '08 campaign in return game vs. Sooners, also at Norman. Stoops so-so 5-6 vs. line TY and no covers last three or four of last five in 2012, though 3-2 vs. line (all as chalk) away this season. Frogs no wins or covers in three Big 12 home games this season, Patterson 3-3 as dog TY after 3-2 in role previous five seasons. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent trends.
A win by the Broncos would give them a share of the Mountain West Conference title with San Diego State and Fresno State. And Nevada has already accepted a bid to the New Mexico Bowl. Boise State’s defense has been stellar all season and has forced 32 turnovers – 16 interceptions and 16 fumbles. The Broncos are fifth in scoring defense (14.4 points per game) and eighth in rushing defense (293.3 yards). The Wolf Pack are the only team in the country to score 30 or more points in each game but a leaky defense has allowed more than 30 six times. Nevada has played over the total in four of its last five games and the over is 4-0 in Boise State’s last four road games. Nevada also needs a win to go over its season win total of 7.5 games.
Already made my pick on this game, but you can never have enough info Cincinnati at Connecticut (4.5, 40)
With a win here and a loss by Rutgers on Thursday, Cincy would gain a share of the Big East title for the fourth time in five years. Connecticut, meanwhile, is a win away from gaining bowl eligibility for the fifth time in six seasons. The Huskies scored a total of 33 points during a four-game losing streak from Oct. 6 to Nov. 3. They've scored 47 in two wins since, although 13 of those points came in overtime against Louisville. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the schools.
TEXAS at KANSAS STATE...KSU has covered last four in series including wins by Bill Snyder over Mack each of past two seasons. Mack just 3-4 vs. line immediately after a SU loss the past two seasons. Snyder 5-1 vs. spread at home TY and 9-3 vs. spread last 12 at home. He's also 17-7 overall vs spread the past two seasons. Mack 1-1 as dog TY, 5-8 in role since 2008. Tech edge-Kansas State, based on team and series trends.
The first-ever meeting between a couple of disappointing WAC programs takes place on Saturday, as the Texas State Bobcats play host to the New Mexico State Aggies. Back on Aug. 30, the Aggies began the season with a 49-19 win over FCS Sacramento State at home, but have since dropped 10 straight. New Mexico State has struggled mightily on offense recently, having been limited to 14 points or less in its last five games. Texas State has also been brutal, dropping five straight contests, but showed some life in a 38-31 defeat to Texas-San Antonio last week. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
BOISE STATE at NEVADA...Series has turned around a bit in recent years as Pack has covered last three and four of last five meetings. Only once since 1999 decade has Nevada actually beaten Broncos SU, however, and that was epic 34-31 OT win in 2010 that knocked Boise out of BCS. But Pack enters this season-ender in midst of wicked 7-game spread losing streak, and Ault 1-9 vs. line last 10 this season. Broncs 4-1 vs. line away in 2012, 15-4 since 2010, 20-6 since 2009, 26-7 vs. number away since 2008. Tech edge-Boise State, based on team trends.