coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:22 PM

Hilton Contest most popular picks: 1) Packers 2) Saints 3) Falcons 4) Seahawks.

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:23 PM

Jim Schwartz throwing red flag Thurs was exact same thing that started handshake skirmish w Harbaugh last year

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:25 PM

Picks from Mr. Steele

Buffalo at Indianapolis

Love the dynamics of a losing team off a nationally televised win vs a team with a winning record off a loss on the road to one of the AFC’s top teams. Prior to NE the Colts had not only won 4 straight but outgained those foes by 73 ypg while Buffalo has only totaled 281 yards in their 19-14 win vs MIA which is the same team that IND gained 516 yards against. Since everything Luck does is compared to Peyton let’s mention that he’s exceeded Manning’s numbers off a loss already going 3-0 including pulling 2 upsets. It’s never a positive sign when your defense is ranked #31 allowing 147 ypg (4.9) rushing on the road and 63% completions. It gets even tougher when your offense averages only 339 ypg away from home. Let’s sum it up in 6 words: better offense, better defense and hungry.
PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 30 BUFFALO 23

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:25 PM

In case you missed it

Stat of Week! Home underdogs of more than 8 points have covered 20 of last 21 ATS (Chiefs)

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:26 PM

Denver at Kansas City

Both of these teams were 1-2 to start the season. There’s been a “slight” change in direction since with DEN going 6-1, +109 ypg/32 ppg and KC going winless, -41 ypg/12 ppg. Last week’s win over SD makes the Broncos 3 clear in the AFC West but as their attention turns towards playoff seedings they also know that they’ve already dropped head-to-head matchups with a pair of division leaders. The Chiefs D has been clearly overachieving allowing only 312 ypg at home vs SD, BAL & OAK but last week I saw it start to struggle being on the field for an overextended period of time as they allowed a season high 22 FD’s and a ssn high at home of 409 yds vs CIN’s #17 off. While I often look at QBR’s for a player, one stat that jumps out is that KC’s team QBR is dead last on offense and #31 on defense (18-6 ratio) which should make Manning’s (310 ypg, 69%, 21-4 ratio the last 8 weeks) Thanksgiving feast come a few days late. Denver takes this one by 2 td’s.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 24 KANSAS CITY 10

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:28 PM

Inflated NFL Lines = BRONCOS & RAVENS..oddsmakers were well aware BOTH would attract ton of public money and be huge liability for books..

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:29 PM

Knowshon Moreno's 2 starts vs. KC in 2010: 22 for 106 yards rush and 23 for 163. Ronnie Hillman still 3rd dn back; Lance Ball in rotation

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:30 PM

Indy-Buf is definitely your sharp v square game of the week, bet trackers show heavy Ind but line has dived from 3 to 1 (now some push back)

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:30 PM

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Jaguars have held RB Johnson to 44 yds rushing (3.6) in the last 3. Johnson has avg’d 130 ypg rush (6.7) the last 5 games prior to the bye though, and JAX’s #29 rush def has allowed over 123 yds rushing in 8 of 10 games this year. The Jaguars have been outgained by 191 ypg at home this year while being outscored 31-9. They have been held to 15 or less in 16 of their last 27 games with Gabbert only having 2 games this year with 2 td’s. The Jags talked about how their season opening loss to Minnesota in OT inflicted a 2 game hangover so how will they react to blowing a 14 point 4Q lead to Houston last week. TEN rebounded from the CHI debacle by thumping a better MIA defense in Locker’s return. While the Titans #30 defense has been vulnerable vs the pass this year (71%, 20-9 ratio) the Jaguars lack a big time weapon (Shorts is a slot WR, Blackmon rookie struggles despite last week) to exploit it and I’ll call for the road team to get the win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 JACKSONVILLE 17

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coleryan Posts:12149 Followers:20
11/25/2012 12:31 PM

Not only have the Jaguars lost 7 in a row, they've allowed at least 24 points in each of those games.

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