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Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (92-59-4, 60.9% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. This angle lost its only play in Week 11. Qualifier: Indianapolis -3.
More Line Moves
Ravens/Chargers- Ravens beat the Steelers last week. Teams are 31-52-3 (37%) after playing the Steelers since 2007. Tough travel for the Ravens and another Steeler matchup next week. The Chargers opened the favorite but it quickly reversed to Ravens -1 and -1.5. Now coming back to pick as public on Ravens, wiseguys on Chargers.
49ers/Saints- The world awoke to what Reno has known for years: Colin Kaepernick is one hell of a quarterback. Now he'll start for a healthy Alex Smith after replacing the injured starter last week. He faces one of the league's toughest home fields but its worst defense. 49ers have been as high as -2.5 and as low as -1. Slight public lean to the suddenly hot Saints.
Rams/Cardinals- Cards going with rookie QB Russell Lindsay. Just kidding. His name is Ryan Lindley, but be honest, you really didn't know. The game opened Cards -2.5, went to -1, now at -1.5. Amendola may or may not play for the Rams. If you watch this without a bet you are a real fan.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 50.5)
Falcons’ rush defense vs. Buccaneers’ RB Doug Martin
Things are starting to unravel for the Falcons, who nearly got handed their second defeat of the season against Arizona last week. Atlanta’s biggest weakness is its inability to slow down the run, ranking 26th versus the rush (130.5 yards against per game).
The Cardinals rumbled for 137 yards on 26 carries (over five yards per carry) and now the Falcons face Tampa Bay’s battering ram, Doug Martin. Martin is third in the NFL in rushing with 1,000 yards and has found paydirt eight times this season. Over the past four games, he’s totaled 592 yards and five touchdowns.
Spread: Falcons minus-1
Public consensus pick: 62 percent picked Falcons
SuperContestants: 173-164 in favor of Falcons
Public perception: Both teams are becoming pretty popular with bettors. The Falcons, 9-1 straight-up but just 6-4 against the spread, failed to cover last week but the public is again backing them.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps know that the Buccaneers have the best ATS record in the league at 8-2 as they've been an ATM all season (some of us wish we had been believers earlier).
Tuley's Take: I faded the Falcons again with success last week as the Cardinals covered, but as much as the Buccaneers have been a covering machine, this number just looks too short to me. The pick: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers, but barely).
Niners’ QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Saints’ weakness to dual-threat QBs
New Orleans is a much different team than the one that lost to Washington and Carolina right out of the gate this season. However, the Saints did struggle with dual-threat pivots Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton in those games, allowing the QBs to pick up some big gains when plays broke down. New Orleans even let Michael Vick do some damage with his legs in a win over the Eagles in Week 9.
San Francisco has the hottest dual-threat QB in the league right now in Kaepernick. Since Alex Smith went down with a concussion, the second-year man out of Nevada has thrown for 360 yards and two TDs while displaying his crazy legs in the crunch. Even with Smith on the mend, the 49ers are siding with Kaepernick against the Saints Sunday.