11/25/2012 12:26 PM
Denver at Kansas City
Both of these teams were 1-2 to start the season. There’s been a “slight” change in direction since with DEN going 6-1, +109 ypg/32 ppg and KC going winless, -41 ypg/12 ppg. Last week’s win over SD makes the Broncos 3 clear in the AFC West but as their attention turns towards playoff seedings they also know that they’ve already dropped head-to-head matchups with a pair of division leaders. The Chiefs D has been clearly overachieving allowing only 312 ypg at home vs SD, BAL & OAK but last week I saw it start to struggle being on the field for an overextended period of time as they allowed a season high 22 FD’s and a ssn high at home of 409 yds vs CIN’s #17 off. While I often look at QBR’s for a player, one stat that jumps out is that KC’s team QBR is dead last on offense and #31 on defense (18-6 ratio) which should make Manning’s (310 ypg, 69%, 21-4 ratio the last 8 weeks) Thanksgiving feast come a few days late. Denver takes this one by 2 td’s.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 24 KANSAS CITY 10